{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 180, "label": "KS NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ks-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:19.511761+00:00", "headline": "Rural Kansas growth is capped by workers, not demand.", "headline_summary": "Tenth District businesses report labor availability -- not order volume -- as the top constraint on activity, even as Kansas's 67.4% labor force participation rate still beats the national 61.8% despite a full-point year-over-year decline.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kansas labor force participation", "value": "67.4%", "context": "vs 61.8% U.S. rate, April 2026"}, {"label": "Kansas labor force, YoY change", "value": "-1%", "context": "1,570,281 to 1,554,750, June 2024-2026"}, {"label": "Kansas private-sector hourly earnings", "value": "+4.6%", "context": "to $32.98, vs 4.1% Midwest inflation"}, {"label": "Kansas WARN notices, 2026", "value": "7 notices / 617 workers", "context": "down 35% vs 2025; zero filed last 90 days"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor scarcity, not demand softness, is the real constraint.", "body": "Tenth District contacts report hiring difficulty broadening across occupations even as business activity holds roughly flat -- a sign that available workers, not order volume, caps near-term growth in nonmetro Kansas. That distinction matters for how local officials interpret flat activity readings: this is a supply story, not a demand story."}, {"headline": "Statewide participation decline may understate rural pressure.", "body": "Kansas labor force participation dropped roughly 1% year-over-year even while remaining well above the national rate, and nonmetro counties -- typically older and more outmigration-prone than metro Kansas -- are plausible contributors to that decline. Confirming whether this reflects retirement, relocation, or discouragement should precede any policy response."}, {"headline": "Goods-producing strength offers a local economic anchor.", "body": "Manufacturing and construction are outperforming national trends statewide, bolstered by named employers like Garmin, Honeywell, and Panasonic in Kansas's broader industrial base. Nonmetro counties with manufacturing exposure may be benefiting from this momentum even without metro-level data to confirm it directly."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are real but narrower than headline numbers suggest.", "body": "Kansas private-sector hourly earnings rose 4.6% year-over-year to $32.98, outpacing Midwest inflation of 4.1% for a modest real gain, yet the broader average weekly wage figure actually fell 0.6% after inflation -- a sign gains are concentrated rather than broad-based across the wage distribution."}], "local_conditions": "Rural Kansas labor markets remain defined by tight labor supply rather than weak demand, with the Kansas City Fed's September Beige Book identifying labor availability -- not hiring appetite -- as the top constraint on regional business activity across the Tenth District, which includes nonmetropolitan Kansas. Statewide labor force participation has fallen a full percentage point year-over-year (1,570,281 to 1,554,750 since June 2024) even as Kansas's 67.4% participation rate still outpaces the 61.8% national figure, suggesting nonmetro counties are drawing from an already-thinning rural workforce pool as goods-producing sectors tied to manufacturing and construction outperform national trends.", "implications": "Persistent labor scarcity rather than soft demand is the defining constraint for nonmetro Kansas business activity, meaning local commerce capacity is more likely limited by available workers than by order books or investment appetite. For economic development officials and chamber leaders, this reframes expansion conversations: attracting a new employer or plant to a rural county now depends as much on local labor force depth as on incentives or site readiness. Government economists should weigh whether the statewide participation decline reflects demographic outmigration or discouraged-worker dynamics before drawing conclusions about underlying economic health. Current conditions suggest regional development bodies track county-level labor force participation trends alongside traditional site-selection metrics when courting employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "No BLS series isolates nonmetro Kansas unemployment or payrolls directly; the October 16 statewide release and county-level figures remain the best available proxies. Commerce leaders relying on metro-specific precision should treat current reads as directional, not exact."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Kansas WARN filings fell 35% year-over-year with zero notices in the last 90 days as of late September, a reassuring signal for public-sector and business-climate stability heading into the fourth quarter. A reversal would be an early sign of broader cooling reaching the state."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September against an 84,000 forecast, with July and August revised down a combined 60,000. If that national deceleration persists, rural Kansas's current labor-scarcity dynamic could shift toward demand softness within a quarter or two."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Wage growth nationally slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. Watch whether Kansas's stronger private-sector wage trend (4.6%) holds its premium over inflation, or converges toward the national pattern of eroding purchasing power."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20856.0, "metro_p50": 26120.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23357.0, "metro_p50": 25365.0, "metro_p75": 27893.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30837.0, "metro_p50": 35320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55992.0, "metro_p50": 75790.0, "metro_p75": 90500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25422.0, "metro_p50": 29453.0, "metro_p75": 31813.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57510.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30769.0, "metro_p50": 35230.0, "metro_p75": 37368.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27750.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35891.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25755.5, "metro_p50": 27491.0, "metro_p75": 29563.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33344.5, "metro_p50": 37592.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31491.0, "metro_p50": 36844.0, "metro_p75": 39333.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47583.5, "metro_p50": 59856.2, "metro_p75": 65221.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76445.0, "metro_p50": 91622.0, "metro_p75": 101556.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97323.0, "metro_p50": 130851.8, "metro_p75": 145621.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85569.25, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 138327.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54797.5, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 71751.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68280.0, "metro_p50": 76937.0, "metro_p75": 87110.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50796.0, "metro_p50": 60616.8, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48327.0, "metro_p50": 75332.4, "metro_p75": 99466.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49925.0, "metro_p50": 73000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29463.0, "metro_p50": 46487.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66568.0, "metro_p50": 100440.0, "metro_p75": 117545.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66655.0, "metro_p50": 69791.0, "metro_p75": 78510.5, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76413.0, "metro_p50": 90875.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 73540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70890.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37127.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56314.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 95957.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 66142.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 68021.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68833.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29498.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59621.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:15.538800+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ks-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}