{"schema_version": 1, "id": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 235, "label": "Knoxville, TN MSA", "slug": "knoxville-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:47:54.366905+00:00", "headline": "Knoxville's labor force shrinks even as hiring demand climbs.", "headline_summary": "Knoxville's labor force fell 0.9% to 463,056 in August while job ads \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 rose 4.5% year-over-year to 9,451, and Tennessee's $25.79 average hourly wage still trails the national $30.19 \u2014 a tight-labor story with capital investment as the gating factor.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Knoxville MSA unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Unchanged from July and from August 2025"}, {"label": "Knoxville labor force", "value": "463,056", "context": "Down 0.9% from 467,329 in July"}, {"label": "Knoxville job postings", "value": "9,451", "context": "Up 4.5% year-over-year, a hiring-demand signal (one ad often covers several openings)"}, {"label": "TN avg hourly wage vs. US", "value": "$25.79 vs $30.19", "context": "Tennessee trails national average despite 3.4% jobless rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A shrinking labor force is the real constraint.", "body": "Knoxville's labor force fell 0.9% month-over-month even as job ads \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 climbed 4.5% year-over-year, a combination that points to a supply-side ceiling. For a metro courting capital investment, this is the more consequential number than the unemployment rate itself."}, {"headline": "Trade wages are repricing faster than the broader metro basket.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly and HVAC Technician pay rose moderately in Knoxville, outpacing stable readings across retail, food service, and manufacturing production roles. That divergence tracks the build-out demands of announced projects like Centrus's $560 million expansion and suggests skilled-trade capacity is the tighter constraint."}, {"headline": "Knoxville's wage floor still trails the state despite low joblessness.", "body": "Tennessee's average hourly wage reached $25.79 in September against a national average of $30.19, and Knoxville's own advertised figures for frontline and clerical roles sit meaningfully below national medians across the board. Low unemployment is not translating into wage convergence with national peers, a signal relevant to any county weighing its competitive pitch to relocating employers."}, {"headline": "New business formation is outpacing the region's one-year-ago pace.", "body": "Knox County issued 297 new business licenses in July, up 5.7% year-over-year, suggesting local entrepreneurial and small-business momentum continues alongside the larger capital projects. That combination \u2014 big-ticket industrial investment plus steady small-business formation \u2014 is a healthier signal for commerce leaders than either trend alone."}], "local_conditions": "Knoxville's unemployment rate held at 3.2% in August, with the metro labor force contracting 0.9% to 463,056 even as job ads \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 rose 4.5% year-over-year to 9,451, a combination consistent with a market where labor supply is the binding constraint. Nuclear and advanced manufacturing investment, led by Centrus Energy's $560 million expansion announcement, is layering fresh hiring demand onto a metro already running near its tightest labor conditions in a decade, with construction trades and electricians showing the sharpest advertised pay gains in the basket.", "implications": "Falling labor force participation alongside flat unemployment suggests Knoxville's growth ceiling is increasingly a workforce-availability question \u2014 relevant to economic development officials weighing incentive packages and to commerce leaders assessing whether the metro can absorb announced capital projects like Centrus's expansion on the timeline promised. Construction and skilled-trade wage gains (Electrician +significant, HVAC Technician +moderate) point to capacity constraints in the trades that could slow build-out of any new facility, residential or commercial, tied to this investment wave. Current conditions suggest local economic development bodies should track whether workforce pipeline programs like TNTalent are scaling fast enough to match the pace of announced capital commitments.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Knoxville's labor force rebounds in the September/October BLS releases or continues contracting; a second consecutive monthly decline would sharpen the case that participation is capping the metro's growth rate."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Skilled-trade wage gains (electricians, HVAC) suggest capacity strain as Centrus's expansion and other advanced-manufacturing projects move toward construction phases. Delays in trade labor availability could slow project timelines that economic development officials have publicly tied to job-creation commitments."}, {"category": "Policy signal to monitor", "body": "Federal labor force growth has slowed on immigration policy changes and retirement trends, per BLS data; Tennessee and Knoxville-specific effects on construction and manufacturing labor supply are not yet separately quantified in available metro data and warrant tracking as more detail emerges."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "TNTalent's $5 million workforce initiative targets nuclear energy, AI infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing \u2014 sectors directly relevant to Knoxville's Centrus expansion. Commerce leaders should watch for early enrollment or placement figures as a read on whether state programs are scaling with local investment announcements."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24149.0, "metro_p50": 28430.8, "metro_p75": 31147.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21538.0, "metro_p50": 26944.0, "metro_p75": 28777.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31670.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55782.0, "metro_p50": 77350.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30960.0, "metro_p50": 38289.4, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34606.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53834.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38351.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32018.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27365.5, "metro_p50": 30167.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32614.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32516.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79860.0, "metro_p50": 94283.8, "metro_p75": 100939.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95213.0, "metro_p50": 125412.2, "metro_p75": 142681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81111.5, "metro_p50": 113380.0, "metro_p75": 125053.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54102.5, "metro_p50": 63757.4, "metro_p75": 71760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66783.75, "metro_p50": 79246.4, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54929.0, "metro_p50": 78163.0, "metro_p75": 106909.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42756.0, "metro_p50": 52978.6, "metro_p75": 57814.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63540.5, "metro_p50": 77927.6, "metro_p75": 84043.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28236.0, "metro_p50": 35928.0, "metro_p75": 46616.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59456.0, "metro_p50": 90088.0, "metro_p75": 113586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74344.75, "metro_p50": 91282.4, "metro_p75": 110554.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57828.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33872.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 87500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51475.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57493.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60744.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31657.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60065.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:21.410940+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}