{"schema_version": 1, "id": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 235, "label": "Knoxville, TN MSA", "slug": "knoxville-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:26.424885+00:00", "headline": "Knoxville's low jobless rate hides a shrinking job count.", "headline_summary": "Knoxville's unemployment rate sits at 2.7%, well under the 4.1% national rate, yet the metro has averaged -133 jobs monthly in 2026 versus a five-year average of +778 \u2014 a gap that points to labor supply constraints, not labor market strength.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Knoxville MSA unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.4% Tennessee (Aug)"}, {"label": "Metro job growth, 2026 avg", "value": "-133/month", "context": "vs +778/month five-year average"}, {"label": "Knox County weekly wage growth", "value": "2.7% YoY", "context": "vs 4.4% statewide, 6.6% Davidson County"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages declining for first time in two years"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking job count.", "body": "Knoxville's 2.7% rate looks stronger than the 4.1% national figure, but the metro averaged -133 jobs monthly through 2026 versus a five-year average of +778. The combination points to workers leaving the labor force or relocating rather than a healthy, demand-driven tight market."}, {"headline": "Knoxville wage growth is trailing the state's leading metros.", "body": "Local weekly wages rose 2.7% year-over-year, well behind Davidson County's 6.6% and the statewide average of 4.4%. Nashville's Oracle-driven expansion appears to be concentrating Tennessee's wage momentum rather than lifting it broadly across the state's metros."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is accelerating faster than the broader metro basket.", "body": "Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay both show significant upward movement locally, alongside moderate gains for CDL drivers and construction laborers. This pattern is consistent with capacity constraints in construction and infrastructure-adjacent trades rather than broad-based wage inflation."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap adds a local purchasing-power question.", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, reversing two years of real wage gains. Knoxville's 2.7% local wage growth sits below even that national pace, raising a fair question about local consumer spending durability heading into year-end."}], "local_conditions": "Knoxville's metro unemployment rate held at a historically tight 2.7% in May even as the area shed jobs, averaging -133 positions monthly across 2026 against a five-year baseline of +778 \u2014 a divergence between a shrinking payroll count and a labor pool too small to supply it. Local weekly wages rose 2.7% year-over-year to $1,316, trailing both the state's 4.4% average weekly wage gain and Davidson County's 6.6%, suggesting Knoxville's wage momentum is lagging Tennessee's faster-growing metros even as its unemployment reading looks stronger.", "implications": "Tight unemployment alongside payroll contraction signals a local economy constrained by labor supply rather than demand \u2014 a dynamic economic development officials should flag when courting employers who assume Knoxville's low jobless rate means ample available workers. Advertised pay gains concentrated in skilled trades (electricians, HVAC technicians, CDL drivers) point to where local capacity is most stretched, a relevant data point for infrastructure and construction-dependent development timelines. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should treat Knoxville's 2.7% unemployment rate as a capacity constraint signal in site-selection and expansion conversations, not simply a strength to market.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Knoxville's monthly job losses stabilize or extend into a fourth consecutive negative reading. A sustained contraction alongside tight unemployment would reinforce a labor-supply story rather than a one-quarter anomaly."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Tennessee's TikTok Nashville office closure (Oct. 5, roughly 250 workers) is a Davidson County event, not a Knoxville one, but it's a useful statewide marker for whether released white-collar talent shows any secondary movement toward Knoxville's professional services sector."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction and skilled trades wage momentum (electricians, HVAC, CDL) against the backdrop of flat-to-negative overall metro job counts. If trades pay keeps accelerating while headline employment stays soft, that's a capacity-constraint signal relevant to any infrastructure or large-site development timeline."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August. Watch October's state and metro releases for whether Tennessee's historically resilient job growth (31,400 projected for 2026) shows similar deceleration."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24678.25, "metro_p50": 28423.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21412.0, "metro_p50": 26204.0, "metro_p75": 28475.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38618.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 75865.4, "metro_p75": 86516.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30536.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40450.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53196.75, "metro_p50": 62692.2, "metro_p75": 66736.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 37930.8, "metro_p75": 40523.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32560.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27548.25, "metro_p50": 30167.0, "metro_p75": 31323.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32614.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31491.0, "metro_p50": 38679.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 61919.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79442.0, "metro_p50": 94155.8, "metro_p75": 101336.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91795.0, "metro_p50": 122898.0, "metro_p75": 138676.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78586.5, "metro_p50": 105349.4, "metro_p75": 122651.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54552.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 69723.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66953.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56705.0, "metro_p50": 106819.0, "metro_p75": 106909.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42178.0, "metro_p50": 52500.0, "metro_p75": 55203.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 77938.4, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28236.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 45823.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 120792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73500.0, "metro_p50": 91282.2, "metro_p75": 110554.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33627.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 87500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51428.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31224.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60412.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:12.856801+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/knoxville-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}