{"schema_version": 1, "id": "kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 204, "label": "Kingston, NY MSA", "slug": "kingston-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:22.147027+00:00", "headline": "Kingston job growth stalls as region pulls ahead.", "headline_summary": "Kingston MSA private employment grew just 0.2% year-over-year versus 1.5% regionally, and county unemployment climbed to 4.1% in August from 3.8% in June.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kingston MSA private job growth", "value": "0.2%", "context": "vs 1.5% Hudson Valley regional growth"}, {"label": "Ulster County unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Up from 3.8% in June 2026"}, {"label": "National wage growth", "value": "3.0%", "context": "Below 3.4% inflation, lowest since May 2021"}, {"label": "New York State unemployment", "value": "4.3%", "context": "Down from 4.4% in July, opposite local trend"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Kingston's job growth lag looks structural, not seasonal.", "body": "Private employment grew just 0.2% year-over-year through June, trailing the Hudson Valley's 1.5% regional pace by a wide margin. A persistent gap this large, against a backdrop of long-term labor force decline since 2018, points to a supply constraint as much as a demand problem."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated, not metro-wide.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver pay rose significantly to a metro median of $97,493, far outpacing the national figure, while Construction Laborer, Electrician, Accountant, and Elementary Teacher pay all declined locally. That split suggests logistics and transport corridors tied to regional distribution activity are absorbing most of the wage pressure while other sectors soften."}, {"headline": "Unemployment drift deserves more weight than the headline rate suggests.", "body": "Ulster County's rise from 3.8% to 4.1% between June and August tracks the national direction but outpaces New York State's modest August improvement to 4.3% from 4.4%. Local deterioration moving opposite the state trend is the kind of divergence that merits scrutiny before being dismissed as noise."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains the metro's quiet backstop.", "body": "National government payrolls shed 17,000 jobs in September and New York local government cut 13,000 positions outside education, yet no comparable Kingston-area public-sector contraction has surfaced in WARN filings or state data. Continued stability in county and SUNY New Paltz-linked public employment may be cushioning a private sector that is visibly losing momentum."}], "local_conditions": "Ulster County's unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% in August 2026 from 3.8% in June, while Kingston MSA private employment growth slowed to just 0.2% year-over-year through mid-2026, the weakest pace among Hudson Valley metros even as the broader region added 12,600 private-sector jobs. Softening is consistent with national trends \u2014 September's national payroll gain of just 29,000 and downward revisions to July and August totaling 60,000 \u2014 but the Kingston metro's lag behind neighboring counties suggests local-specific drag, likely tied to continued labor force contraction from out-migration and retirements rather than a sudden demand shock.", "implications": "Slower private employment growth alongside a rising unemployment rate points to a local economy cooling faster than the state average, which should inform how commerce leaders calibrate expansion timing and public investment advocacy rather than being read as a straightforward opportunity signal. Divergent advertised-pay trends \u2014 CDL Truck Driver up significantly to $97,493 against broad softness in retail, delivery, and administrative pay \u2014 indicate the metro's wage pressure is narrowly concentrated in logistics and skilled trades, not broad-based tightness. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Ulster County's labor force participation stabilizes before treating any single sector's wage gains as evidence of a durable upswing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September 2026 Ulster County unemployment data publishes in late October. A reading above 4.1% would confirm a trend rather than a one-month fluctuation and warrants attention from anyone tracking the metro's standing against Hudson Valley peers."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN filings show healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation as the top-affected industries across New York; none of the recent notable filings (BuzzFeed, Buffalo Newspress) are local, but transportation sector exposure is relevant given Kingston's elevated CDL driver pay."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first sustained real-wage erosion since 2021. If that gap persists into Kingston's Q4 wage data, local consumer spending capacity \u2014 a key input for retail and hospitality-dependent commerce \u2014 could soften further."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Kingston's reliance on New York City day-trippers and Catskill tourism for leisure and hospitality momentum makes the sector sensitive to discretionary spending shifts tied to the national wage-inflation squeeze. A weaker fall tourism season would be an early signal worth tracking ahead of winter data releases."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32183.0, "metro_p50": 33436.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31108.0, "metro_p50": 34632.0, "metro_p75": 35308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32004.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61307.75, "metro_p50": 97493.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33058.0, "metro_p50": 35000.0, "metro_p75": 39392.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37450.0, "metro_p50": 42150.0, "metro_p75": 53040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62118.0, "metro_p50": 72915.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33508.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42410.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29487.25, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 44200.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57229.75, "metro_p50": 61643.8, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90140.0, "metro_p50": 102804.0, "metro_p75": 112296.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92766.0, "metro_p50": 112245.6, "metro_p75": 156000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 142396.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55324.5, "metro_p50": 65083.0, "metro_p75": 82130.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72517.0, "metro_p50": 94295.0, "metro_p75": 102336.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41419.0, "metro_p50": 69290.0, "metro_p75": 79119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 59470.0, "metro_p75": 70614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85960.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35391.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 59448.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63750.0, "metro_p50": 78935.6, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47232.25, "metro_p50": 62774.0, "metro_p75": 75021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81984.0, "metro_p50": 96720.0, "metro_p75": 108992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 48456.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67551.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36595.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 39391.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67765.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55758.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55951.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70308.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:11.365460+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingston-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}