{"schema_version": 1, "id": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 196, "label": "Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA MSA", "slug": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:42:15.708389+00:00", "headline": "Kingsport GM pay slides as entry-level wages keep climbing.", "headline_summary": "Metro Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell significantly to $51,944 against a stable $59,724 national median, even as Crew pay rose to $26,000 in a market holding 3.4% unemployment.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Sullivan County unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Aug 2026, vs 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "TN hospitality job change", "value": "-1,600 jobs", "context": "Accommodation/food services, 2025"}, {"label": "Metro avg wage growth", "value": "4.0%", "context": "$53,050 to $55,176, 2024 to 2025"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay gap", "value": "$51,944 vs $59,724", "context": "Metro down significantly vs stable national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is falling locally while national rates hold firm.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay dropped significantly to $51,944 in the metro versus a stable $59,724 nationally, and Catering Manager pay fell similarly on both fronts. A widening gap against national benchmarks raises retention exposure for incumbent managers who can see what comparable roles pay elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Crew wages are rising even as hospitality employment contracts.", "body": "Metro Crew pay rose moderately to $26,000 despite Tennessee's 1,600-job loss in accommodation and food services during 2025, consistent with entry-level roles staying hard to fill even as total sector headcount shrinks. Thin local unemployment (3.4%-3.5%) appears to be sustaining wage pressure at the bottom of the pay scale independent of demand trends."}, {"headline": "Federal tipped-wage rule change creates a quiet cost opportunity.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule removes the 20% cap on non-tip-producing duties paid at the $2.13 tipped rate, a change that applies in Tennessee given its reliance on federal wage floors. Operators scheduling side work (prep, cleaning, stocking) during slow shifts may find real savings in restructuring FOH shift duties without raising base pay."}, {"headline": "BOH wage pressure is building faster than FOH nationally.", "body": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, and metro Line Cook pay sits well below the national median ($31,200 versus $37,421) with no local movement this month. A static Line Cook rate against a national growth outlook this strong suggests the metro may be under-pricing BOH roles relative to where hiring difficulty is heading."}], "local_conditions": "Sullivan County unemployment held at 3.5% in August 2026 and Tennessee's statewide rate sat at 3.4% in September, both well below the 4.2% national rate, signaling a labor pool that remains tight for operators across the Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol MSA. Regional manufacturing losses of 8,000 jobs alongside Tennessee's statewide 1,600-job decline in accommodation and food services during 2025 point to softening consumer demand even as the candidate pool stays thin, a combination that complicates both staffing and pricing decisions.", "implications": "Falling leisure/hospitality employment alongside a sub-4% local unemployment rate points to demand softness even as the labor pool stays thin \u2014 operators likely won't see meaningful relief in applicant flow even if covers slow. Metro Restaurant Manager/GM pay down significantly to $51,944 against a stable national median of $59,724 may reflect local margin pressure more than reduced management demand, a distinction that matters when budgeting retention raises for incumbent GMs. Consider evaluating whether current GM compensation gaps versus national levels are creating flight risk as neighboring Virginia and larger Tennessee metros compete for experienced management talent.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "80/20 rule elimination takes effect broadly this month; watch whether competitors in the metro restructure FOH shift schedules to shift more non-tipped duties onto tipped-wage hours, which could reset local server take-home pay expectations."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tennessee's statewide hospitality job losses (1,600 in 2025) alongside continued tight unemployment (3.4%-3.5%) could squeeze margins further if softening demand doesn't ease wage competition for entry-level Crew and Server roles."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Metro GM and Catering Manager pay have both fallen significantly against stable national figures; track whether this reflects a temporary local correction or a durable gap that prompts management departures to Knoxville, Tri-Cities VA, or larger Tennessee metros."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS metro-level data for the Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol MSA won't post until December 2, leaving operators reliant on county-level and advertised-pay signals for near-term staffing and budget decisions through year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29287.0, "metro_p50": 38000.0, "metro_p75": 43232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40560.0, "metro_p50": 53103.0, "metro_p75": 53103.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27212.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48000.0, "metro_p50": 51944.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26981.0, "metro_p50": 29929.0, "metro_p75": 32489.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26836.0, "metro_p50": 29463.0, "metro_p75": 30888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sullivan County unemployment at 3.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee statewide hospitality sector lost 1,600 jobs in 2025"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 rule for tipped wage calculations in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% cook employment growth vs 2% for waiters through 2035"}, {"source_name": "BLS / Regional wage data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro average annual wage rose from $53,050 to $55,176"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate at 4.2%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:17.118622+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}