{"schema_version": 1, "id": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 196, "label": "Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA MSA", "slug": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:47:02.026544+00:00", "headline": "Kingsport holds tight labor conditions as manufacturing quietly contracts.", "headline_summary": "Sullivan County's 3.5% unemployment rate sits well below the national 4.2%, while a regional manufacturing decline of 8,000 jobs suggests the metro's tightness reflects an uneven growth story.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Sullivan County unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs. 4.2% national, August 2026"}, {"label": "Tennessee statewide unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Lowest of 2026, 3rd straight month"}, {"label": "Regional manufacturing job loss", "value": "8,000 jobs", "context": "A structural shift"}, {"label": "Regional average wage growth", "value": "~4.0%", "context": "$53,050 to $55,176, 2024-2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tight unemployment masks an uneven sector story underneath.", "body": "Sullivan County's 3.5% rate and the state's 3.4% suggest a healthy headline, but manufacturing's regional 8,000-job loss indicates the tightness partly reflects a shrinking labor base. Economic development planning should separate these two drivers before treating low unemployment as unqualified good news."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpaces national posted-pay trends, a mixed signal.", "body": "Regional average wages grew about 4.0% year-over-year, well above the Indeed national posted-wage tracker's 2.4% gain, which is consistent with employers competing harder for a smaller available workforce. For commerce leaders, this points to rising labor costs as a lasting feature of doing business locally."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing Production Worker pay rising locally bucks the sector's job losses.", "body": "Advertised median pay for manufacturing production workers in the metro is up moderately even as the broader manufacturing sector sheds jobs regionally, suggesting remaining manufacturing employers are paying more to secure workers from a thinner pool. This divergence between job counts and pay is a reliable signal of underlying labor scarcity alongside headline unemployment."}, {"headline": "Metro-level October data gap limits precision for weeks ahead.", "body": "BLS will not release October metro figures for Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol until December 2, forcing reliance on county and state proxies in the interim. Commerce and government leaders making near-term decisions should treat current readings as directional."}], "local_conditions": "Sullivan County's unemployment rate held at 3.5% in August, consistent with Tennessee's statewide rate of 3.4% \u2014 the lowest of the year and nearly a full point below the national rate of 4.2% \u2014 suggesting the Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol metro continues to run tighter than the country as a whole. Regional average annual wages rose roughly 4.0% from 2024 to 2025 ($53,050 to $55,176), while manufacturing employment lost ground both statewide and regionally, pointing to a labor market where overall tightness coexists with sector-specific contraction.", "implications": "Tight labor conditions alongside manufacturing softness suggest the metro's overall health is being carried by services and public-sector activity, a pattern commerce leaders should weigh when evaluating the durability of any expansion plans tied to manufacturing. Wage growth near 4.0% regionally outpaces the Indeed national posted-wage tracker's 2.4% figure, which may suggest local employers are bidding more aggressively for a shrinking available workforce even as national job ads, a signal of hiring demand, cool. Current conditions suggest local economic development groups should track whether manufacturing's 8,000-job regional decline stabilizes or continues, since that trajectory will shape how much of the metro's apparent tightness reflects strength versus a shrinking labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release ahead", "body": "BLS publishes October metro-level unemployment and employment data for Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol on December 2. That release will confirm whether the county-level stability seen in August holds through fall."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing's 8,000-job regional decline and statewide 1.7% annual contraction warrant monitoring for signs of stabilization or further erosion, particularly given the sector's historical weight in this metro's economy."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Tennessee's TNTalent program, backed by $5 million in federal funding for nuclear energy, AI infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing, may influence which sectors see investment activity in the broader region over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide initial unemployment claims fell by 2,635 in the week ending October 17, a signal worth tracking locally for whether Sullivan and Hawkins counties mirror that statewide improvement or diverge from it."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23056.25, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 28642.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27784.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54861.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29316.0, "metro_p50": 33532.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33660.5, "metro_p50": 37173.6, "metro_p75": 44184.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 64040.6, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35776.0, "metro_p75": 36172.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26201.5, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32611.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36915.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66294.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 68070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79942.0, "metro_p50": 98084.0, "metro_p75": 105130.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 110570.0, "metro_p50": 149094.4, "metro_p75": 164580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90453.5, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 145000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50936.25, "metro_p50": 65300.0, "metro_p75": 71293.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66458.0, "metro_p50": 73999.0, "metro_p75": 75882.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58519.0, "metro_p50": 63515.0, "metro_p75": 65734.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63540.5, "metro_p50": 77927.6, "metro_p75": 84043.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29100.0, "metro_p50": 48099.0, "metro_p75": 53104.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31512.0, "metro_p50": 64450.0, "metro_p75": 91611.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76635.75, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 105424.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53938.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 63506.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 70070.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 41865.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49296.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30394.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67074.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sullivan County unemployment rate at 3.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee statewide unemployment held at 3.4% for three months"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate at 4.2%"}, {"source_name": "Regional labor market research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Regional manufacturing employment decline of 8,000 jobs"}, {"source_name": "Indeed Wage Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "National posted wage growth of 2.4% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "State of Tennessee", "source_url": null, "statement": "TNTalent program launched with $5 million federal funding"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:16.736905+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}