{"schema_version": 1, "id": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 196, "label": "Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA MSA", "slug": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:17.791301+00:00", "headline": "Kingsport labor market cools modestly as sectors diverge", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment edged up to 4.0% in June against a steady 3.4% statewide rate, with CDL and home-health pay declining even as registered nurse pay climbed sharply.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "June 2026, up from 3.3% in April-May"}, {"label": "Tennessee unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Steady in August, vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Metro manufacturing employment", "value": "20.7K jobs", "context": "May 2026, vs statewide manufacturing contraction"}, {"label": "National WARN-affected workers", "value": "313,234", "context": "Across 3,562 filings as of Sept 26, 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment uptick looks cyclical, not structural.", "body": "Kingsport-Bristol's rise from 3.3% to 4.0% between spring and June 2026 still sits below the 4.1% national rate, and arrives alongside statewide county-level readings mostly under 5%. Early softening bears watching but does not yet separate this metro from Tennessee's broader resilience."}, {"headline": "Trucking and home health pay declines signal sector-specific strain, not broad weakness.", "body": "CDL driver pay fell moderately and CNA/home health aide pay dropped moderately even as registered nurse pay rose significantly, pointing to a split within the same care and logistics ecosystem rather than a uniform downturn. Watch whether this divergence tracks national freight softness or reflects something more local to Sullivan County's logistics base."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing production worker pay rising bucks a national plateau.", "body": "Metro manufacturing assembler pay moved up moderately while the national figure held flat, even as Tennessee's statewide manufacturing employment contracted slightly. That combination is consistent with employers competing for a shrinking pool of production workers locally, a signal relevant to any economic-development pitch built around manufacturing capacity."}, {"headline": "Public-sector and healthcare wage strength offers a stabilizing counterweight.", "body": "Registered nurse and teacher pay both rose significantly in the metro, consistent with Tennessee's statewide pattern of healthcare leading job creation over the past year. For a metro economy exposed to goods-movement softness, durable public and health-sector wage growth is a meaningful ballast."}], "local_conditions": "Kingsport-Bristol MSA unemployment ticked up to 4.0% in June 2026 from 3.3% in April-May, tracking slightly above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate even as 89 of 95 Tennessee counties held readings below 5% in July. Manufacturing (20.7 thousand jobs) and trade/transportation (24.0 thousand) remain the metro's employment anchors, while CDL driver pay slipped and CNA/home health pay declined, pointing to softening demand signals in goods-movement and direct-care segments even as healthcare employment drove Tennessee's strongest statewide job gains over the past year.", "implications": "Modest upward drift in metro unemployment, paired with wage softness in trucking and home health, is consistent with a local economy cooling from a tight-labor baseline rather than one in distress \u2014 a pattern commerce leaders should read as stabilization, not alarm. Public-sector and healthcare payrolls have been the most reliable statewide growth engines even as national government employment contracts, suggesting the metro's institutional and hospital-system base offers more near-term stability than its logistics and manufacturing exposure. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leadership evaluate how much of the region's 2026 momentum depends on trucking, warehousing, and manufacturing wage trends relative to the more insulated healthcare and public-sector base.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the Kingsport-Bristol unemployment rate continues drifting upward in the next BLS metro release (expected with the usual one-to-two month lag) or reverses toward the sub-3.5% range seen earlier in 2026."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "CDL driver and HVAC technician pay both moved down moderately this month; track whether this reflects softening freight and construction demand locally or a broader Southeast regional pattern tied to tariff-affected goods movement."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Tennessee's statewide health and education employment growth flattened to 0.2% year-over-year from 3.3% in 2024 \u2014 a trend that, if it reaches Kingsport's hospital and school systems, would remove one of the metro's more stable payroll bases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,562 notices, 313,234 workers as of late September) with manufacturing and transportation leading Tennessee's own WARN activity; any new filing touching Sullivan County's manufacturing or logistics employers would be the clearest local test of whether national softening is reaching this metro."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23054.5, "metro_p50": 26895.0, "metro_p75": 28288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22819.0, "metro_p50": 25415.2, "metro_p75": 27321.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31498.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53740.25, "metro_p50": 79593.0, "metro_p75": 88000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26353.0, "metro_p50": 33380.0, "metro_p75": 35756.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31622.0, "metro_p50": 37107.0, "metro_p75": 43368.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55630.0, "metro_p50": 66483.0, "metro_p75": 68691.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30420.5, "metro_p50": 35776.0, "metro_p75": 35908.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32146.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26433.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32206.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36670.0, "metro_p75": 42000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55487.0, "metro_p50": 64347.0, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79942.0, "metro_p50": 98869.8, "metro_p75": 105363.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 108343.0, "metro_p50": 145080.0, "metro_p75": 162168.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90330.0, "metro_p50": 129576.0, "metro_p75": 144120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49459.0, "metro_p50": 61758.2, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66841.0, "metro_p50": 73999.0, "metro_p75": 75882.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 61332.6, "metro_p75": 64069.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 77938.4, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28817.0, "metro_p50": 48099.0, "metro_p75": 52987.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31512.0, "metro_p50": 73761.2, "metro_p75": 92710.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76649.0, "metro_p50": 95461.6, "metro_p75": 106400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55381.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 60892.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 67112.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 42328.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43711.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 45760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66330.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30270.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67475.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:10.017327+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kingsport-bristol-bristol-tn-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}