{"schema_version": 1, "id": "killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 210, "label": "Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX MSA", "slug": "killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:57.196924+00:00", "headline": "Killeen restaurant pay falls as metro unemployment climbs to 5.4%.", "headline_summary": "Advertised pay dropped across five of six restaurant roles in the Killeen metro even as unemployment rose to 5.4% in July, outpacing the Texas statewide rate of 4.0% and raising the question of whether operators are repricing ahead of \u2014 or behind \u2014 real labor softening.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "5.4%", "context": "Up from 4.9% in June; Texas at 4.0%"}, {"label": "Metro avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,288", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "TX hospitality employment", "value": "-1.5% YoY", "context": "Despite postings up 1.3% (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Fort Hood workforce inflow", "value": "~800/month", "context": "Transitioning service members entering labor pool"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro pay is falling faster than the labor market is loosening.", "body": "Five of six tracked roles show declining advertised pay even as metro unemployment rose to 5.4% in July, outpacing the state's 4.0% rate. This gap may signal operators are repricing roles ahead of confirmed labor surplus rather than reacting to it, a riskier bet if Fort Hood transition volume slows."}, {"headline": "Server pay bucks the trend, and that is a tip-credit signal.", "body": "Server advertised pay rose moderately to $29,120 even as every other front- and back-of-house role declined, consistent with Texas's frozen $2.13 tipped minimum pushing operators to compete on base pay to retain reliable front-of-house staff. Worth benchmarking server base pay separately from the broader downward market, since tipped-role economics are diverging from hourly BOH roles."}, {"headline": "Fort Hood's exit pipeline is a hiring hedge, not a guarantee.", "body": "Up to 800 transitioning service members enter the Killeen workforce monthly, a structural advantage unmatched elsewhere in Texas for filling shift-management and GM-track roles. Relying on this channel without tracking placement timing risks overestimating candidate flow during slower rotation months."}, {"headline": "Statewide retention crisis has not fully reached Killeen's price tags.", "body": "Texas full-service restaurants sit 183,000 jobs below pre-pandemic staffing and 65% of operators statewide report understaffing, yet Killeen advertised pay is falling across most roles. Local operators may be underpricing retention risk relative to the state's broader staffing shortfall."}], "local_conditions": "Killeen-Temple metro unemployment climbed to 5.4% in July 2026 from 4.9% in June, a faster deterioration than the Texas statewide rate of 4.0%, while Fort Hood's continuous release of up to 800 transitioning service members monthly keeps labor supply elevated relative to demand.  Metro average weekly wages of $1,288 trail the U.S. average of $1,654 by roughly 22%, meaning restaurant operators here compete for talent in a market where base compensation expectations are structurally lower, but a rising jobless rate signals growing candidate availability rather than tightening.", "implications": "Rising metro unemployment alongside soft advertised pay across nearly every restaurant role (Crew, Line Cook, Shift Manager, Assistant Manager and GM all down this month) suggests Killeen operators are gaining hiring leverage even as statewide hospitality employment fell 1.5% year-over-year and 65% of Texas operators report understaffing. Fort Hood's steady pipeline of transitioning military talent offers a recruiting channel largely insulated from broader Texas hospitality churn, particularly for shift-lead and management-track roles that value structure and reliability. Consider reviewing whether current advertised pay levels for management roles are now overcorrecting relative to candidate supply, given Assistant Manager pay down significantly and GM pay down moderately against a softening local labor market.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS releases September 2026 metro employment and unemployment data October 28 \u2014 watch whether the July-to-June deterioration (4.9% to 5.4%) continued or reversed, since that will determine whether current pay softening is justified or premature."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Fort Hood separation volume and timing over the next two rotation cycles will shape candidate availability for shift-lead and assistant-manager openings; a slowdown would tighten the local labor pool faster than state trends suggest."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Texas hospitality employment fell 1.5% year-over-year statewide despite active postings up 1.3%, a turnover-driven backfill pattern; confirm whether Killeen's own vacancy duration is lengthening even as advertised pay declines."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Server pay's divergence from other roles may deepen if Texas tip-credit dynamics continue pushing FOH base wages upward while BOH and management pay softens, narrowing the wage structure operators have historically relied on."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29191.0, "metro_p50": 33423.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 50871.2, "metro_p75": 56706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22339.75, "metro_p50": 24929.0, "metro_p75": 28686.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26191.0, "metro_p50": 29157.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42649.0, "metro_p50": 51173.0, "metro_p75": 59080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24672.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 33090.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25629.0, "metro_p50": 28408.6, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:09.108503+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/killeen-temple-fort-hood-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}