{"schema_version": 1, "id": "kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 225, "label": "Kankakee-Bradley, IL MSA", "slug": "kankakee-bradley-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:59.378067+00:00", "headline": "Kankakee's $2 billion bet hasn't reached payrolls yet.", "headline_summary": "Kankakee nonfarm payrolls remain down 2.1% year-over-year even as a $2 billion EV-battery facility advances toward a projected 2,600 jobs, while manufacturing pay locally fell even as the national median held stable.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kankakee nonfarm payrolls, YoY", "value": "-2.1%", "context": "-900 jobs, largest decline among IL metros"}, {"label": "EV-battery facility investment", "value": "$2.0B / 2,600 jobs", "context": "Projected, not yet reflected in payrolls"}, {"label": "Kankakee unemployment rate", "value": "5.5% (Sep '25) vs 4.1% (Jul '26)", "context": "Reporting lag obscures current trend"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force", "value": "6,477,000", "context": "Down from 6,571,000 in March 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A $2 billion project hasn't moved the jobs needle yet.", "body": "Kankakee payrolls are still down 900 jobs year-over-year even with the EV-battery facility's 2,600-job projection publicly committed. The gap between announced investment and realized employment is the central number for commerce leaders to track before treating this as a turnaround story."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay is falling locally while rising nationally.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay dropped significantly in Kankakee even as the national median held stable, an unusual local-national split given the metro's historic manufacturing base and the incoming battery plant. This may reflect softening in legacy manufacturing employers ahead of new capacity coming online, not a uniform sector retreat."}, {"headline": "Professional-sector pay gains mask blue-collar softness.", "body": "Accountant, operations manager, and registered nurse advertised pay all rose moderately to significantly this month, while construction laborer, HVAC technician, and delivery driver pay fell. Overall metro conditions read differently depending on which workforce segment a given commerce decision touches."}, {"headline": "Unemployment direction diverges across the reporting lag.", "body": "MSA-level data through September 2025 showed unemployment at 5.5%, but more recent county-level figures put Kankakee closer to 4.1% in July 2026 \u2014 a gap wide enough to suggest real improvement or simply inconsistent reporting windows. Treat any single unemployment figure for this metro as provisional until IDES publishes aligned, current MSA data."}], "local_conditions": "Kankakee's labor market continues to underperform state and national trends, with nonfarm payrolls down 2.1% and unemployment running well above the Illinois rate, even as a $2 billion EV-battery facility advances toward a projected 2,600 jobs that would represent the metro's largest manufacturing investment in decades. Advertised pay across manufacturing, warehousing, construction labor, and administrative roles is softening locally even as national figures for the same work hold stable or rise, suggesting the metro's wage pressure is easing faster than broader cost-of-living and inflation trends would imply.", "implications": "Divergence between a marquee capital investment and a still-contracting local labor market suggests commerce leaders should treat the EV-battery project as a leading indicator to monitor rather than a present-tense demand signal \u2014 the jobs are not yet showing up in payroll counts. Falling advertised pay in manufacturing, construction, and warehouse roles, set against wage gains in healthcare, accounting, and operations management, points to an economy bifurcating along skill lines rather than broadly cooling. Local economic development corporations and chambers should consider tracking permitting, hiring timelines, and supplier announcements tied to the battery facility as the clearest near-term test of whether Kankakee's labor market trajectory is turning.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch for IDES's pending release of current Kankakee County unemployment data, expected around month-end, which should finally reconcile the gap between the 5.5% MSA figure from last fall and more recent sub-5% county readings."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Construction and site-development activity tied to the EV-battery facility is the clearest near-term proxy for whether the investment is translating into measurable local economic activity ahead of actual production hiring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Falling advertised pay across manufacturing, construction labor, and warehouse roles locally, against stable-to-rising national figures for the same work, is worth tracking for whether it reflects a temporary pre-project lull or a deeper local softening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN activity remains elevated, with 91 notices affecting nearly 16,800 workers year-to-date; any filings naming Kankakee-area employers would be the first direct read on whether state-level layoff pressure is reaching this metro."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29837.0, "metro_p50": 32656.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28919.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33119.5, "metro_p50": 35496.8, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61195.0, "metro_p50": 80291.0, "metro_p75": 85005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29403.0, "metro_p50": 32370.0, "metro_p75": 34252.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35532.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62705.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 80954.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34835.75, "metro_p50": 35372.0, "metro_p75": 36216.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31241.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31347.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34459.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 44179.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33577.0, "metro_p50": 38043.0, "metro_p75": 41293.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59195.0, "metro_p50": 59195.2, "metro_p75": 62751.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81775.0, "metro_p50": 97846.2, "metro_p75": 110907.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 112123.0, "metro_p50": 151902.4, "metro_p75": 166866.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99155.75, "metro_p50": 140500.0, "metro_p75": 158000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73332.0, "metro_p50": 92053.0, "metro_p75": 92053.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83605.0, "metro_p50": 87662.4, "metro_p75": 95413.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 82895.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47706.0, "metro_p50": 66092.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74505.5, "metro_p50": 98612.4, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 59741.8, "metro_p75": 66199.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36691.0, "metro_p50": 61093.4, "metro_p75": 74375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 91350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79854.0, "metro_p50": 94773.0, "metro_p75": 108327.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70608.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54402.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 39000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50764.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70018.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:04.182905+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/kankakee-bradley-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}