{"schema_version": 1, "id": "jonesboro-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 245, "label": "Jonesboro, AR MSA", "slug": "jonesboro-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:41:33.583348+00:00", "headline": "Jonesboro FOH pay climbs as kitchen wages stay flat.", "headline_summary": "Server pay rose to a $32,672 metro median against a stable national $35,024, while line cook pay held flat at $28,563 \u2014 well under the $37,421 national figure \u2014 even as metro job growth stalled with a 100-job September decline.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro job change, September", "value": "-100 jobs", "context": "vs +300 jobs in August 2026"}, {"label": "Craighead County unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 3.9% Arkansas, 4.2% U.S. (Sept.)"}, {"label": "Server advertised pay, metro", "value": "$32,672", "context": "up significantly vs stable $35,024 national"}, {"label": "Line cook advertised pay, metro", "value": "$28,563", "context": "stable, vs $37,421 national median"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is climbing locally while the national line is flat.", "body": "Metro server advertised pay rose significantly to a $32,672 median against a stable $35,024 national figure, narrowing a gap that typically favors larger metros. This is consistent with front-of-house tightness even as leisure and hospitality payrolls contracted seasonally statewide, and suggests Jonesboro operators are bidding up FOH pay to hold staffing levels through the moderating local labor market."}, {"headline": "Crew and shift manager pay movement points to entry-tier pressure.", "body": "Crew pay rose moderately to $27,040 and shift manager pay rose moderately to $30,890, both outpacing stable national trends for the same roles. Entry and first-line supervisory tiers appear to be where local competition for labor is concentrating, likely reflecting the shrinking entry-level pipeline tied to slowing immigration flows noted nationally."}, {"headline": "Line cook pay has stalled despite a national BOH hiring squeeze.", "body": "Metro line cook median pay sits at $28,563, stable and well below the $37,421 national median, even as BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers. Current conditions suggest Jonesboro operators may be underpricing kitchen talent relative to where national demand signals are heading, a gap worth testing before turnover costs \u2014 averaging $3,850 per hourly replacement \u2014 force the issue."}, {"headline": "Catering manager pay surge may reflect banquet and event demand.", "body": "Catering manager pay jumped significantly to $53,508 locally, reversing a moderate national decline to $50,076. Divergence this sharp from the national trend is worth validating against actual booking volume before treating it as a durable local benchmark."}], "local_conditions": "Jonesboro metro employment slipped by 100 jobs in September after a 300-job gain in August, signaling a plateau after a stretch where nonfarm payrolls had grown 0.9% year-over-year through August, with Craighead County unemployment holding at a tight 3.5%. Statewide leisure and hospitality lost 1,900 jobs on seasonal declines even as Arkansas' overall jobless rate held at 3.9%, suggesting restaurant hiring in this metro is now competing against a labor pool that is growing more slowly than earlier in 2026.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment alongside the federal DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives operators room to redeploy tipped staff to side work without the prior 20% threshold, easing scheduling constraints during slower dayparts without raising base pay. With Arkansas' $11 minimum wage frozen and no 2027 increase scheduled, labor cost control now hinges on turnover and scheduling discipline, with wage-floor pressure removed from the equation \u2014 consider reviewing side-work allocation policies for tipped staff to capture savings the rule change makes available.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift in effect", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule is now live, letting operators pay the $2.13 federal tipped cash wage for more side-work without the former 20% cap. Arkansas operators should confirm this aligns with state tip-credit rules ($2.63 cash wage, $8.37 max tip credit) before adjusting scheduling practices."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "September's 100-job metro employment decline, following August's 300-job gain, is a single month of data but worth tracking against October's release for signs of a sustained slowdown versus normal volatility. A confirmed downturn would ease FOH hiring competition but could also signal softer consumer demand for dining out."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Line cook pay has held flat locally while national BOH wage growth and projected 12% cook job growth through 2035 point toward tightening kitchen labor markets elsewhere. Watch whether Jonesboro kitchen turnover accelerates as workers become aware of better-paying BOH opportunities in larger nearby metros."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide leisure and hospitality shed 1,900 jobs on seasonal decline even as overall Arkansas unemployment held at 3.9%. Confirm whether Jonesboro's restaurant sector is following the same seasonal pattern or diverging, since local FOH wage gains suggest demand may be holding up better than the state aggregate implies."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27505.0, "metro_p50": 36730.8, "metro_p75": 37292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38055.25, "metro_p50": 53508.0, "metro_p75": 56340.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29194.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26072.0, "metro_p50": 28563.0, "metro_p75": 29595.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49500.0, "metro_p50": 61695.4, "metro_p75": 70606.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26226.0, "metro_p50": 32672.0, "metro_p75": 33261.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26100.0, "metro_p50": 30890.4, "metro_p75": 31345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Jonesboro metro lost 100 jobs in September 2026 after gaining 300 in August"}, {"source_name": "Fiscal Toolbox / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Craighead County unemployment at 3.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas leisure and hospitality lost 1,900 jobs on seasonal decline"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Restaurant industry turnover research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Line cook replacement cost averages $3,850 per hourly worker"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "jonesboro-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "jonesboro-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:00.562915+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jonesboro-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jonesboro-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}