{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 237, "label": "Johnstown, PA MSA", "slug": "johnstown-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:40:41.835172+00:00", "headline": "Johnstown servers gain ground while cook pay slips.", "headline_summary": "Metro Server pay jumped significantly to $32,819 even as Line Cook pay fell to $30,160 \u2014 a 19% gap below the $37,421 national median \u2014 while county unemployment held a point above Pennsylvania's 3.6% rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cambria County unemployment", "value": "4.6%", "context": "vs 3.6% statewide, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro average weekly wage", "value": "$1,002", "context": "vs $1,654 national average (Q1 2026)"}, {"label": "Line Cook pay gap to national", "value": "-19%", "context": "$30,160 metro vs $37,421 national median"}, {"label": "Cambria County job postings growth", "value": "+36.6%", "context": "Year-over-year, March 2026, signal of demand"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is outrunning the rest of the wage structure.", "body": "Metro Server advertised pay rose significantly to $32,819, closing in on the $35,024 national median while most other roles held flat or declined. This divergence suggests front-of-house competition for talent has intensified locally even without minimum-wage movement, likely reflecting the federal 80/20 rule withdrawal shifting more compensation pressure onto base and tip-generating hours."}, {"headline": "Line Cook wages are falling as the role gets harder to fill nationally.", "body": "Metro Line Cook pay moved down moderately to $30,160, a wide 19% gap below the $37,421 national median, even as BLS projects 12% national growth in cook employment through 2035 versus 2% for servers. A local pay retreat against rising structural demand may signal employers are losing this wage competition quietly, with turnover costs showing up later as recruitment delays, even as wage data stays level."}, {"headline": "Frozen minimum wage shifts all pay pressure onto market competition.", "body": "Pennsylvania's $7.25 floor and $2.83 tipped cash wage remain unchanged with Senate inaction stalling House-passed reform, meaning no regulatory floor increase is forcing wage adjustments this cycle. Operators in Johnstown compete purely on advertised pay and total rewards, a dynamic driven entirely by market movement rather than mandates, rewarding those tracking role-specific trends closely."}, {"headline": "Local unemployment gap signals slower talent pool recovery than the state.", "body": "Johnstown's 4.6% unemployment rate trails Pennsylvania's 3.6% statewide figure by a full point, even after a 1.6-point year-over-year improvement. Slower-than-state labor market tightening may give Cambria County operators modestly more hiring leverage than peers in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia metros, at least through the current seasonal staffing cycle."}], "local_conditions": "Cambria County's August 2026 unemployment rate sits at 4.6%, down 1.6 points year-over-year, yet remains above both the Pennsylvania rate of 3.6% and the national rate of 4.1% \u2014 signaling a metro still playing catch-up on labor market tightness even as the state posts its lowest jobless rate since 2023. A $7.25 state minimum wage frozen since 2009, combined with the October federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule, removes two traditional levers for upward wage pressure, leaving advertised pay movements as the primary signal operators have to track competitive positioning.", "implications": "Johnstown's average weekly wage of $1,002 \u2014 well below the $1,654 national figure \u2014 gives restaurant operators room to compete on pay without approaching metro-wide wage ceilings, but the local Server rate's significant year-over-year increase to $32,819 suggests front-of-house competition is intensifying faster than back-of-house, even as Line Cook pay moved down locally against a national backdrop of accelerating cook-role demand. With national turnover near 80% and 70% of operators reporting difficult-to-fill roles, labor cost planning should separate FOH wage inflation from BOH recruitment friction and treat total labor cost as two distinct levers. Consider reviewing Line Cook compensation specifically against the national median of $37,421, where the metro's $30,160 figure and recent softening may be masking a widening recruitment gap as BLS projects 12% cook-role growth nationally through 2035.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Full-service restaurant employment statewide dropped from 187.7K to 182.2K between October and December 2025, a seasonal pattern likely to repeat. Johnstown operators should expect similar fourth-quarter staffing contraction and plan retained-staff scheduling and overtime budgets accordingly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National tipped-wage rule changes are fragmenting by state and city \u2014 Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi dropped 80/20/30 entirely while Flagstaff eliminated the tipped wage outright. Watch whether Pennsylvania's stalled House Bill 2189 regains Senate momentum, which would reset FOH wage math statewide with little lead time."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Cambria County online job postings rose 36.6% year-over-year as of March 2026, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), reflecting shifts in demand rather than a direct count of openings. Track whether this demand signal extends into restaurant-specific postings as the metro moves into winter staffing adjustments."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National labor cost pressure is building quickly \u2014 33% of operators reported 6-14% labor cost increases by mid-2026, up 15 points from earlier in the year. Monitor whether Johnstown's below-national wage levels insulate margins or simply delay the same cost trajectory by a quarter or two."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36721.0, "metro_p50": 45711.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37296.0, "metro_p50": 52336.8, "metro_p75": 58947.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22994.0, "metro_p50": 25783.0, "metro_p75": 26310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 32254.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44692.0, "metro_p50": 55650.6, "metro_p75": 59226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32819.0, "metro_p75": 34033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23978.0, "metro_p50": 30254.0, "metro_p75": 32268.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "USAFacts/Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Johnstown MSA/Cambria County unemployment rate at 4.6% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania minimum wage remains $7.25, unchanged since 2009"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cambria County average weekly wage of $1,002 vs national $1,654"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Full-service restaurant employment fell from 187.7K to 182.2K, Oct-Dec 2025"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:58.216571+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}