{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 237, "label": "Johnstown, PA MSA", "slug": "johnstown-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:52.288693+00:00", "headline": "Johnstown pay splits: Crew falls, Server surges past national pace.", "headline_summary": "Johnstown's Server pay climbed significantly to $32,819 even as Crew pay fell significantly to $25,782, a divergence against a national backdrop of flat advertised rates across both roles.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Johnstown MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Down from 5.1% a year earlier (July)"}, {"label": "Johnstown nonfarm payrolls", "value": "49,800", "context": "Down 400 jobs year-over-year"}, {"label": "Average weekly wage, Johnstown MSA", "value": "$1,002", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average (Q1 2026)"}, {"label": "PA minimum wage", "value": "$7.25/hr", "context": "Unchanged since 2009; House passed hike, Senate stalled"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Entry-level pay is falling while skilled roles climb \u2014 a widening gap.", "body": "Crew pay is down significantly and Shift Manager pay down moderately in Johnstown even as Server pay rises significantly and Line Cook pay rises moderately. Current conditions suggest operators are prioritizing retention of tipped and kitchen talent over entry-level hiring volume, which may strain promotion pipelines from Crew into supervisory roles."}, {"headline": "Local wage floors are frozen while candidate pools shrink.", "body": "Johnstown's average weekly wage of roughly $1,002 trails the national figure by over $650, yet unemployment has fallen to 4.4% from 5.1% a year ago. A tightening market without matching wage growth may signal depressed labor force participation rather than genuine recruiting ease."}, {"headline": "Server pay gains buck the national trend entirely.", "body": "National Server pay sits flat while Johnstown's advertised Server rate climbs significantly to $32,819, now within striking distance of the national median. Operators benchmarking FOH pay against national data risk understating what it actually takes to staff dining rooms in this metro."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's wage pull may be reshaping restaurant recruiting math.", "body": "Manufacturing still accounts for 8.8% of Cambria County employment, a sector that historically outpays food service and can draw back-of-house candidates during periods of job posting growth. Online postings in Cambria County rose 36.6% year-over-year as of March, suggesting restaurant operators are competing against a broader, more active local hiring market than headline unemployment implies."}], "local_conditions": "Johnstown MSA unemployment fell to 4.4% in July, continuing a steady decline from 4.7% in May, even as nonfarm payrolls slipped 400 jobs year-over-year to 49,800 \u2014 a sign that a shrinking labor force, not surging hiring, is tightening the local candidate pool. Average weekly wages in the metro remain stuck near $1,002, barely a third of the national $1,654 average, keeping Johnstown a structurally low-cost labor market even as Pennsylvania's $7.25 minimum wage floor stays frozen for a 17th year.", "implications": "Falling unemployment against flat-to-declining job counts suggests Johnstown operators are competing for a smaller pool of available workers rather than benefiting from loosening supply, a dynamic that shows up locally as sharply declining Crew pay (down significantly) alongside rising Server and Line Cook pay \u2014 a sign restaurants are reallocating budget toward tipped and skilled back-of-house roles rather than raising pay across the board. With Pennsylvania's tipped cash wage locked at $2.83 and the 80/20 side-work rule still constraining BOH scheduling flexibility, labor cost control increasingly runs through scheduling precision and role mix rather than wage-floor policy. Consider reviewing whether Crew and Shift Manager pay reductions reflect genuine easing of entry-level competition or simply a lag against rising Server wages that could widen internal pay compression.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Johnstown nonfarm payrolls have declined for several consecutive months even as unemployment falls. Watch whether September data confirms a genuine labor force contraction, which would tighten candidate pools further regardless of wage moves."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay are both trending down locally while national rates hold stable. If this divergence persists into October, it may indicate Johnstown operators are quietly under-pricing entry-level roles relative to the regional cost of living."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Pennsylvania's House passed H.B. 2189 to raise the state's $7.25 minimum wage, though the Senate has not acted. Any Senate movement this fall would reshape tipped-wage math statewide and warrants early scenario planning given Johnstown's below-average wage base."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, suggesting reduced competition for workers industry-wide. Confirm whether Johnstown's smaller, less liquid labor market is following this national cooling or remains tighter due to local manufacturing competition for workers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33635.0, "metro_p50": 45740.8, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39158.5, "metro_p50": 52337.0, "metro_p75": 58786.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22833.0, "metro_p50": 25782.0, "metro_p75": 26387.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32539.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44842.0, "metro_p50": 55913.8, "metro_p75": 59066.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28754.25, "metro_p50": 32819.0, "metro_p75": 34552.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23849.0, "metro_p50": 30254.0, "metro_p75": 32268.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:59.758635+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnstown-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}