{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 271, "label": "Johnson City, TN MSA", "slug": "johnson-city-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:39:13.880435+00:00", "headline": "Johnson City restaurant management pay cools as frontline wages hold.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell to a $52,960 metro median against a stable $59,724 nationally, even as Johnson City's 3.5% unemployment stays well below the 4.1% national rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Johnson City MSA unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.4% Tennessee"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay, metro", "value": "$52,960", "context": "down vs $59,724 national, stable"}, {"label": "Tennessee hospitality job losses, 2025", "value": "-1,600 jobs", "context": "accommodation & food services sector"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80% annually", "context": "up from 72% pre-pandemic"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is softening while frontline wages hold firm.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell to a metro median of $52,960, well below the $59,724 national figure, while Shift Manager pay also declined locally. Crew, Server, and Line Cook pay stayed stable \u2014 a pattern consistent with operators protecting hourly staffing levels while trimming management cost structure."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change creates a scheduling opportunity.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators use tipped employees for side work without the prior 20% time cap, reducing the risk of triggering full minimum wage obligations. Tennessee's $2.13 tipped floor plus no state minimum wage makes this flexibility worth more here than in states that have already restricted it, like Texas or Louisiana."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay surge looks like a local demand signal.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay sits at $80,564, well above the $50,076 national median and moving up \u2014 a divergence sharp enough to suggest event and private-dining demand is outpacing the broader restaurant slowdown. Worth benchmarking this role separately from general restaurant management comp and keeping it out of standard GM bands."}, {"headline": "Statewide hospitality job losses haven't reached this metro's hiring pace.", "body": "Tennessee lost 1,600 accommodation and food service jobs in 2025, yet Johnson City's 3.5% unemployment and active hiring across manufacturing and retail suggest local demand for frontline restaurant labor remains competitive. Operators recruiting against logistics and manufacturing wages in the $15-$27.50 range should expect continued pressure on entry-level pay even if management hiring cools."}], "local_conditions": "Johnson City's tight labor market persists at 3.5% unemployment, well below the national 4.1% rate, leaving restaurant operators competing for talent against manufacturing, logistics, and retail employers also actively advertising locally this month. Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October changes the compliance calculus for side-work scheduling just as Tennessee's statewide leisure and hospitality sector shed 1,600 accommodation and food service jobs in 2025, signaling demand may be softening even as frontline labor stays scarce.", "implications": "Metro data showing Restaurant Manager/GM and Shift Manager pay moving down against a stable national trend suggests local operators are recalibrating management compensation even as line-level roles (Crew, Server, Line Cook) hold flat \u2014 a divergence that likely reflects softer unit-level demand alongside steady frontline hiring pressure. Elimination of the federal 80/20 rule gives operators room to redeploy tipped staff into non-tip-producing tasks without the prior 20% cap, which could ease labor cost pressure during slow dayparts if applied deliberately and selectively. Consider reviewing shift-scheduling practices against the revised tipped-wage guidance before extending it metro-wide, since Tennessee's lack of a state minimum wage means missteps default directly to federal enforcement exposure.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy follow-through", "body": "Watch whether Tennessee operators adjust side-work scheduling practices now that the federal 80/20 rule is gone; early movers may reduce labor cost on tipped shifts while late adopters risk falling behind on margin management."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide hospitality job losses in 2025 haven't yet shown up in Johnson City's unemployment data, but a continued divergence between state softening and metro tightness is worth tracking for early signs of demand cooling locally."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing and logistics employers in the Tri-Cities area are actively advertising $15-$27.50 hourly roles via job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings); continued competition from these sectors could keep upward pressure on entry-level restaurant pay even as management compensation softens."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "November's BLS metro-level release will show October unemployment for Johnson City; a move above 3.5% would be the first sign this year that local labor market tightness is easing alongside the state's broader hospitality slowdown."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35815.6, "metro_p75": 49313.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64634.5, "metro_p50": 80564.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22659.0, "metro_p50": 23920.0, "metro_p75": 25522.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26709.75, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 31729.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47500.0, "metro_p50": 52960.0, "metro_p75": 57000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25939.0, "metro_p50": 29929.0, "metro_p75": 32491.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25754.0, "metro_p50": 28376.0, "metro_p75": 30946.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Johnson City MSA unemployment at 3.5%, July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate at 4.1% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee lost 1,600 accommodation/food service jobs in 2025"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover reached approximately 80% annually in 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee tipped minimum wage set at $2.13/hour federally"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:56.143917+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}