{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 271, "label": "Johnson City, TN MSA", "slug": "johnson-city-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:48.227983+00:00", "headline": "Johnson City pay splits: catering surges as shift-management pay slides.", "headline_summary": "Metro Catering Manager pay jumped to $82,500 while Shift Manager pay fell sharply to $28,080, even as the region's 3.7% unemployment rate keeps hourly labor scarce.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Johnson City MSA unemployment", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.4% Tennessee"}, {"label": "National food service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 at start of 2026"}, {"label": "Shift Manager advertised pay (metro)", "value": "$28,080", "context": "Down significantly, near Crew pay level"}, {"label": "September national foodservice job gains", "value": "10,800", "context": "vs 33,800 added in August"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Shift Manager pay is falling fastest, and that's a retention flag.", "body": "Metro Shift Manager advertised pay dropped significantly to $28,080, now barely above Crew pay at $23,920. Compressed spread between frontline and first-line supervisory roles may undercut the incentive to accept management responsibility, a risk when regional unemployment sits at 3.7%."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay surge outpaces every other role by a wide margin.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager advertised pay sits at $82,500, up significantly and well above the $50,960 national median. Operators appear to be bidding aggressively for event and banquet management talent, consistent with the broader national shift toward staff efficiency and revenue-per-labor-hour optimization."}, {"headline": "National hiring slowdown hasn't reached this tight regional labor pool yet.", "body": "National food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, signaling reduced competition for workers in many markets. Johnson City's 3.7% unemployment rate suggests local operators may not feel that relief as directly as operators in looser labor markets."}, {"headline": "General Manager and Assistant Manager pay diverging from national trend.", "body": "Metro GM pay at $52,500 is down moderately and now trails the national $59,618 median by over $7,000, while Assistant Manager pay holds stable locally against a declining national figure. Divergence may suggest metro operators are under less pressure to compete nationally for management talent, or are testing how far pay can soften before turnover responds."}], "local_conditions": "Johnson City's 3.7% unemployment rate holds well below the 4.1% national figure, but tight regional labor supply is colliding with a softer national foodservice hiring pace \u2014 the sector added just 10,800 jobs nationally in September versus 33,800 in August. Tennessee's statewide restaurant base of 14,390 establishments and 283,300 workers adds competitive density to a metro labor pool already strained by Tri-Cities healthcare and hospitality sectors pulling from the same wage-sensitive workforce.", "implications": "Falling advertised pay for Crew (-moderate), Shift Manager (-significant), and General Manager roles locally, even as Catering Manager pay climbs sharply, suggests operators are reallocating compensation toward revenue-generating, event-driven roles rather than across-the-board increases \u2014 a signal that broad-based wage inflation has cooled even as talent remains scarce. With national job openings in accommodation and food services down from 916,000 to 673,000 year-to-date, the hiring frenzy is easing, but Johnson City's sub-4% unemployment means local competition for dependable hourly labor hasn't slackened at the same pace. Consider reviewing whether declining advertised pay for shift supervisory roles reflects genuine market softening or a retention risk masked by low regional unemployment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS September employment data for the Johnson City MSA releases in early October \u2014 watch whether the metro's 3.7% unemployment rate holds or ticks toward the state's 3.4% reading, which would signal further labor tightening."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tennessee's tip credit structure ($2.13 base, $7.25 effective minimum) remains unchanged, but compliance scrutiny around invalid tip pools and side-work misallocation is rising statewide. Metro operators relying heavily on tipped FOH labor should watch for enforcement activity given back-pay exposure."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Falling Shift Manager and Crew advertised pay locally, against stable Server and Line Cook pay, may indicate operators are testing wage floors for hourly and junior supervisory roles first. Track whether turnover data in these roles ticks upward in response."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN activity in food and hospitality already accounts for 1,534 affected workers in Tennessee over the past two years. A seasonal slowdown combined with any new closures could loosen the regional candidate pool faster than wage data alone would suggest."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34784.4, "metro_p75": 39586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67064.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22360.0, "metro_p50": 23920.0, "metro_p75": 24967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26239.75, "metro_p50": 29884.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47051.5, "metro_p50": 52500.0, "metro_p75": 57000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25939.0, "metro_p50": 29929.0, "metro_p75": 32490.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25754.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 29645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:58.602293+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}