{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 271, "label": "Johnson City, TN MSA", "slug": "johnson-city-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:29:17.993533+00:00", "headline": "Johnson City labor tightens as restaurant management pay softens.", "headline_summary": "Core Johnson City MSA counties held unemployment near 3.4%-3.8% against a 4.1% national rate, even as metro Restaurant Manager pay slipped to $54,092 and Shift Manager pay fell to $28,095.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Washington County unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, June 2026"}, {"label": "TN labor force change", "value": "-50,000", "context": "Since August 2025, despite low jobless rate"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down 27% from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Restaurant payroll growth (national)", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest single-month gain since January 2023"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Retention now matters more than recruiting in this market.", "body": "National job openings in food service fell 27% between January and July while quits dropped in parallel, and Tennessee's shrinking labor force compounds the effect locally. Operators who redirect budget from open-role advertising toward tenure incentives may see a better return than those still optimizing job ads."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay is falling even as the labor pool tightens.", "body": "Metro Shift Manager advertised pay dropped significantly to $28,095, below the stable national figure of $32,649 \u2014 an unusual divergence given regional labor scarcity. Consider evaluating whether this reflects genuine market softening in supervisory demand or a data lag against otherwise tightening conditions."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay surge signals where local demand is concentrating.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay jumped to $82,517, well above the stable national median of $51,585, pointing to localized demand for event and off-premise revenue roles rather than a broad-based FOH pay increase. Benchmark this role separately from core restaurant management \u2014 it is not tracking the same market."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage exposure remains a Tennessee-specific advantage, for now.", "body": "State preemption keeps the $2.13 tipped cash wage locked statewide while seven states have eliminated tip credit entirely and Florida reaches $15.00 minimum wage on September 30. Johnson City operators retain a structural FOH cost advantage over multi-state operators, but that gap is a talking point in recruiting, not just a cost line."}], "local_conditions": "Johnson City's core counties held unemployment between 3.4% and 3.8% through mid-2026, tighter than the 4.1% national rate, while the region's total labor force pool remains constrained by Tennessee's statewide contraction of over 50,000 workers since last August. National restaurant payrolls posted their largest one-month jump since January 2023 in August, but 49% of operators report softer traffic than a year ago \u2014 a hiring paradox that appears to reflect operators rebuilding bench strength ahead of demand rather than chasing current volume.", "implications": "Tight local labor supply combined with declining national quits (down from 685,000 to 503,000 since January) suggests the retention math has shifted: losing a trained FOH or BOH worker in Johnson City now costs more to replace than it did a year ago, even as fewer workers are actively job-hunting. Tennessee's frozen $7.25 federal floor and $2.13 tipped cash wage keep the state's statutory labor cost structure unchanged, but that stability masks real wage competition happening above the floor for experienced staff. Consider reviewing scheduling and cross-training investments as a lower-cost alternative to pay increases for locking in tenure through the traffic-uncertain fall season.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "August 2026 BLS unemployment data for the Johnson City MSA has not yet been released as of this briefing; watch for confirmation of whether county-level tightness (3.4%-3.8%) held or eased into fall."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tennessee's statewide labor force has contracted by over 50,000 since last August despite low unemployment \u2014 a sign of workers exiting rather than losing jobs. Watch whether this trend reaches Washington, Carter, and Unicoi counties and further constrains BOH candidate pools."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National full-service restaurant employment remains 3.6% below pre-pandemic levels while QSR/casual segments show more flexibility. Track whether Johnson City's full-service operators face longer BOH vacancy durations than counter-service concepts through the fourth quarter."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Metro Assistant Restaurant Manager and General Manager pay both moved down moderately this month against a national backdrop of falling GM pay. Watch whether this compresses further or stabilizes as fall hiring season begins."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34276.0, "metro_p75": 37507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67064.0, "metro_p50": 82517.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22360.0, "metro_p50": 23920.0, "metro_p75": 24967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26021.75, "metro_p50": 29501.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46694.0, "metro_p50": 54092.0, "metro_p75": 57100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25939.0, "metro_p50": 29929.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25930.0, "metro_p50": 28095.0, "metro_p75": 29645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:34:23.686939+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}