{"schema_version": 1, "id": "johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 271, "label": "Johnson City, TN MSA", "slug": "johnson-city-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:43:35.124794+00:00", "headline": "Johnson City holds tight labor market while trades and services pay diverge.", "headline_summary": "Johnson City's 3.5% unemployment rate continues to outperform the national 4.1%, even as electrician pay rises to a $62,030 metro median while HVAC technician pay falls to $53,799 in the same month.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.4% Tennessee"}, {"label": "Civilian labor force", "value": "98,051", "context": "Washington County core, July 2026"}, {"label": "Tennessee nonfarm job growth", "value": "28,400 jobs", "context": "past 12 months, led by hospitality, health, govt"}, {"label": "Trades wage divergence", "value": "+significant vs. -significant", "context": "Electrician up, HVAC tech down, same month"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Trades pay is pulling away from services pay locally.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay rose to a metro median of $62,030 (significant increase) while HVAC technician pay fell to $53,799 (significant decrease) in the same skilled-trades category. The divergence suggests demand is sorting by specialty, a distinction that matters for anyone tracking construction and infrastructure capacity locally."}, {"headline": "Metro unemployment keeps outperforming the nation by a wide margin.", "body": "Johnson City's 3.5% rate (July 2026) sits a full point below the 4.1% national figure and tracks closely with Tennessee's statewide 3.4%. Persistent tightness at this level, three-plus months running statewide, is consistent with limited slack for new entrants."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay is softening even as trades firm up.", "body": "Accountant pay (down moderate), business analyst pay (down moderate), and warehouse manager pay (down moderate) all declined locally this month, a pattern distinct from the national picture where these roles are flat or rising. This is consistent with a metro economy still anchored in production, logistics and public-sector work."}, {"headline": "Food service and home health pay declines may signal consumer-facing strain.", "body": "Food Service Worker pay fell significantly ($27,434) and CNA/Home Health Aide pay fell moderately ($34,320), both diverging from stable-to-rising national figures in the same roles. Softening pay in consumer-facing and care-economy roles locally, against a backdrop of CPI still running ahead of wage growth nationally, is worth watching as an indicator of household spending power in the metro."}], "local_conditions": "Johnson City's labor market held at 3.5% unemployment through mid-2026, well below the national 4.1% rate, with a civilian labor force of roughly 98,000 showing little sign of the slack appearing in white-collar sectors nationally. Hiring activity in the metro continues to concentrate in manufacturing, municipal government, hospitality and logistics, a mix that mirrors Tennessee's statewide pattern of leisure/hospitality and government driving job growth while manufacturing employment statewide edges down 1.7% year-over-year.", "implications": "Local wage data shows a split economy: electricians (+significant), financial analysts (+significant) and marketing specialists (+significant) are seeing meaningful advertised pay gains, while HVAC technicians, accountants and warehouse managers are seeing pay pull back, a divergence that points to uneven demand across trades, professional services and logistics rather than a uniform tightening or loosening of the market. Government leaders and commerce groups weighing investment incentives or workforce programming should note that the metro's skilled-trades wage strength (electricians, construction labor) is not matched by the services side, where CNA/home health aide and accountant pay are softening even as national peers rise. Current conditions suggest monitoring which sectors are absorbing the metro's labor supply before assuming uniform momentum across the basket.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS metro-level unemployment data for September and October typically post in early November; watch whether Johnson City's 3.5% reading holds or drifts given the national uptick to 4.1-4.2%."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tennessee construction employment showed roughly zero growth over 12 months even as Construction Laborer and Electrician pay rise locally \u2014 a signal of capacity constraints that could affect timelines for any commercial or infrastructure projects moving through the pipeline."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "TNTalent's $5 million state workforce initiative targets nuclear energy, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing; whether any of that investment or training capacity lands in the Tri-Cities area is a live question for regional economic development planning."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings have surged past 340,000 affected workers this year, concentrated in information and professional services; Johnson City's economic base (manufacturing, hospitality, government) has so far been largely insulated, but any spillover into regional logistics or retail would be an early signal to track."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22896.0, "metro_p50": 26315.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26255.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31181.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38715.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54703.75, "metro_p50": 77389.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26823.0, "metro_p50": 33196.6, "metro_p75": 35586.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32462.5, "metro_p50": 34002.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 62030.0, "metro_p75": 65219.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30572.0, "metro_p50": 37128.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33826.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26332.0, "metro_p50": 27434.0, "metro_p75": 28547.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32146.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29527.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38889.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 53799.0, "metro_p75": 55944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73406.0, "metro_p50": 90872.0, "metro_p75": 97070.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 110570.0, "metro_p50": 149094.4, "metro_p75": 164580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90453.5, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 145000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54721.25, "metro_p50": 59692.0, "metro_p75": 66875.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64669.5, "metro_p50": 73992.0, "metro_p75": 77763.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50294.0, "metro_p50": 62709.0, "metro_p75": 66861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45771.25, "metro_p50": 48353.2, "metro_p75": 54340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63540.5, "metro_p50": 77927.6, "metro_p75": 84043.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 46834.8, "metro_p75": 51827.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53616.5, "metro_p50": 78620.8, "metro_p75": 88069.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76635.75, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 105424.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50704.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70746.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32221.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62027.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60796.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 53430.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64828.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60983.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Johnson City MSA unemployment at 3.5% vs national 4.1%"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee statewide unemployment held at 3.4% for three months"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee added 28,400 nonfarm jobs over past year led by hospitality, healthcare, govt"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee construction employment roughly flat over 12 months"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "TNTalent program launched with $5M federal funding for workforce development"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:55.755656+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/johnson-city-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}