{"schema_version": 1, "id": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 263, "label": "Jefferson City, MO MSA", "slug": "jefferson-city-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:42:48.106108+00:00", "headline": "Jefferson City's jobless pool shrinks fast as trades wages spike.", "headline_summary": "Unemployed residents in the Jefferson City metro fell from 2,699 to 2,070 between July and September, even as electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay climbed to $83,200 and $81,120 respectively.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% US, 3.6% Missouri (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Unemployed persons, metro", "value": "2,070", "context": "down from 2,699 in July 2026"}, {"label": "Cole County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,196", "context": "vs $1,569 US average"}, {"label": "Missouri September job change", "value": "-10,600", "context": "vs +28,400 year-over-year statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployed pool shrank fastest of any metro indicator this cycle.", "body": "Jefferson City's unemployed count dropped from 2,699 in July to 2,070 in September, a steeper decline than the state's modest unemployment-rate improvement. That pace, if sustained, points to a labor market with little slack left to absorb new demand without wage pressure."}, {"headline": "Trades wages are outrunning the broader metro pay picture.", "body": "Electrician (up significantly to $83,200) and HVAC technician (up significantly to $81,120) advertised pay both moved well ahead of national medians, while sectors like food service and construction labor moved down. Divergence this wide signals uneven cost pressure depending on which part of the local economy a project touches."}, {"headline": "State government's dominance functions as a stabilizer.", "body": "Jefferson City's low unemployment rate owes much to its concentration of state government employment, a sector that showed resilience even as Missouri's broader government payrolls grew by only 100 jobs statewide in September against a 10,700 private-sector drop. That stability insulates the metro from national cycles but also caps the upside of any broader expansion story."}, {"headline": "Household purchasing power is under quiet pressure despite low joblessness.", "body": "National real wage growth turned negative (-0.11% year over year) even as nominal pay rose, and several Jefferson City roles \u2014 food service, delivery driver, construction laborer \u2014 show declining or stable advertised pay against a still-elevated CPI backdrop. Low unemployment does not guarantee rising consumer spending power locally."}], "local_conditions": "Jefferson City's 3.0% August unemployment rate held well below both the national 4.1% and Missouri's 3.6%, with the count of unemployed residents falling from 2,699 in July to 2,070 in September \u2014 a metro running near full employment even as Missouri shed 10,600 jobs statewide in September. State government's outsized footprint as the metro's dominant employer sector, combined with Cole County's average weekly wage of $1,196 (roughly 76% of the national average), is producing tight labor availability alongside modest advertised-pay growth across the basket of local roles.", "implications": "Near-zero local unemployment paired with statewide September softness suggests Jefferson City's economy is more insulated than Missouri's metro average, largely a function of public-sector concentration that has so far avoided the federal and professional-services pullbacks showing up in national data. For commerce leaders weighing expansion timing, the combination of a shrinking unemployed pool (down 23% in two months) and sharply rising advertised pay in skilled trades \u2014 electrician up significantly, HVAC technician up significantly \u2014 points to tightening capacity in the trades that support any local build-out or facilities investment. Current conditions suggest monitoring trades and construction-adjacent advertised pay as a leading indicator of project cost and timeline risk before committing to capital projects this quarter.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Cole County's unemployment rate ticked up from 2.9% in May to 3.3% in August even as the broader metro figure held near 3.0%, a divergence worth tracking for whether it reflects noise or an early turn. A second consecutive uptick would warrant closer attention from local economic development planners."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Missouri's September loss of 10,600 jobs statewide, concentrated in professional/business services and private education/health, has not yet shown up in Jefferson City's own figures. Watch whether state-level softness lags into the capital-city metro over the next reporting cycle given the area's partial insulation via public-sector employment."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Advertised pay for construction laborer (down significantly) against rising electrician and HVAC pay suggests a bifurcated trades market locally. Commerce leaders with facilities or infrastructure projects on the calendar may want to watch whether that gap narrows or widens before locking in project budgets."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Missouri's minimum wage rose to $15.00/hour January 1 with no further CPI-linked adjustments scheduled, a fixed cost floor now built into any role near that threshold. Retail and food-service advertised pay in the metro \u2014 several already near or above that floor \u2014 bears watching for how employers absorb the plateau."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25517.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26297.0, "metro_p50": 31123.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31467.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60158.0, "metro_p50": 80418.6, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28310.0, "metro_p50": 31208.6, "metro_p75": 34479.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34260.0, "metro_p50": 39144.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67273.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 40771.4, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33667.25, "metro_p50": 37558.0, "metro_p75": 40661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26509.0, "metro_p50": 27994.0, "metro_p75": 29371.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33465.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 47144.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32877.75, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65824.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79491.0, "metro_p50": 91014.0, "metro_p75": 101439.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 131627.5, "metro_p50": 166139.0, "metro_p75": 179845.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113236.0, "metro_p50": 141669.6, "metro_p75": 149353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52735.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 68811.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83391.0, "metro_p50": 111821.4, "metro_p75": 124717.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 58761.4, "metro_p75": 61399.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49900.75, "metro_p50": 84299.2, "metro_p75": 93564.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 80684.0, "metro_p75": 87685.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32760.0, "metro_p50": 47273.0, "metro_p75": 51528.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84209.0, "metro_p50": 116506.8, "metro_p75": 142500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 81594.0, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84694.0, "metro_p50": 100380.0, "metro_p75": 109150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 120051.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 84000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 142000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 112756.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 95500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Jefferson City MSA unemployment rate was 3.0% as of August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Unemployed persons in Jefferson City MSA fell to 2,070 in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cole County average weekly wage was $1,196 in December 2025"}, {"source_name": "Missouri Department of Economic Development / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri lost 10,600 jobs in September 2026 statewide"}, {"source_name": "Missouri General Assembly", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri minimum wage increased to $15.00/hour effective January 1, 2026 under HB 567"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National real wage growth was -0.11% year over year (Sept 2025-2026)"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:53.529341+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}