{"schema_version": 1, "id": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 263, "label": "Jefferson City, MO MSA", "slug": "jefferson-city-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:57.105486+00:00", "headline": "Capital city's calm labor market rests on a public-sector floor", "headline_summary": "Jefferson City's unemployment rate near 3.2% beats the national 4.1% largely on the strength of roughly 20,900 state government jobs, even as skilled-trades pay like Electricians ($83,200) pulls sharply ahead of flat-to-falling office and service wages.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 3.5% Missouri, 4.1-4.2% national"}, {"label": "State government employment, metro", "value": "20,900 jobs", "context": "Core employment anchor, June 2026"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages now declining nationally"}, {"label": "Missouri job postings, YoY", "value": "-11.7%", "context": "70,510 in July 2026 vs 79,830 in 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Capital-city unemployment advantage is a public-payroll story, not a boom.", "body": "Jefferson City's 3.2% rate sits comfortably below the state's 3.5% and the nation's 4.1%, but roughly 20,900 state government jobs anchor that gap. Commerce leaders should read the low rate as institutional stability rather than evidence of broad private-sector acceleration."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are pulling away from the rest of the local pay basket.", "body": "Electrician pay rose to a metro median of $83,200 and HVAC Technician to $71,597, both significant year-over-year gains that outpace national trend lines. That divergence is consistent with Missouri's statewide gains in construction and durable-goods manufacturing, and points to where local capacity constraints are tightest."}, {"headline": "Office and service wages are quietly losing ground to inflation.", "body": "Administrative/office clerk pay fell to $39,171 and customer service representative pay slipped to $37,558 locally, even as national administrative pay rose. Set against 3.4% national inflation, these declines imply real purchasing-power erosion for a meaningful share of the local workforce, a factor relevant to any read on local consumer spending capacity."}, {"headline": "National payroll deceleration has not yet reached the capital region.", "body": "September's national payroll gain of just 29,000, with downward revisions to July and August, signals cooling momentum that has not visibly shown up in Jefferson City's employment figures through midyear. Local leaders should treat the metro's apparent insulation as provisional until September/October metro-level data confirms it."}], "local_conditions": "Jefferson City's unemployment rate held near 3.2% through mid-2026, well below Missouri's 3.5% and the national 4.1-4.2% readings, a gap that reflects the metro's heavy state-government employment base of roughly 20,900 workers providing a stabilizing floor beneath local labor demand. That stability contrasts with a national picture where September payroll growth slowed to just 29,000 and wage growth fell to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, meaning the capital city's labor market is currently running tighter and calmer than the national trendline suggests.", "implications": "Local business investment decisions should weigh the fact that Jefferson City's labor market tightness is substantially a function of public-sector payroll stability rather than private-sector expansion, which means commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should look past the headline unemployment rate to sector-level advertised pay signals -- construction and electrical trades posting significant local wage gains (Electrician up to $83,200, HVAC Technician up to $71,597) point to genuine private-sector demand, while softer postings in administrative and customer-service categories suggest uneven momentum beneath the calm surface. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate business-climate messaging around skilled-trades wage momentum specifically, rather than citing the aggregate unemployment rate alone, since that rate is doing less explanatory work locally than it is nationally.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS state-level LAUS data for September 2026 publishes October 20, and Jefferson City MSA-level figures typically lag by several more weeks -- the next real test of whether national cooling has reached the capital region."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Missouri job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year statewide even as construction and manufacturing wages rose, a split worth tracking locally given Jefferson City's skilled-trades wage momentum in electrical and HVAC work."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "The new permanent Jefferson City Job Center at 327 E. Capitol Avenue, opened October 1, expands workforce-service capacity in the capital; its usage patterns over the next two months may offer an early read on local labor-force participation trends ahead of official data."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal and state government payroll trends deserve close attention given Jefferson City's outsized reliance on state employment; any shift in state budget posture or hiring freezes would disproportionately affect this metro relative to peer Missouri cities."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25517.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26686.0, "metro_p50": 31123.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32564.5, "metro_p50": 42120.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60750.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 88000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28310.0, "metro_p50": 31329.6, "metro_p75": 34187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34260.0, "metro_p50": 39828.8, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66496.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36257.0, "metro_p50": 40614.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33947.0, "metro_p50": 37558.0, "metro_p75": 38887.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28399.0, "metro_p50": 31685.0, "metro_p75": 34403.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33465.0, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 42199.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32744.5, "metro_p50": 39171.0, "metro_p75": 44340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60463.0, "metro_p50": 71597.0, "metro_p75": 72925.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79103.25, "metro_p50": 91014.0, "metro_p75": 101398.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 130831.0, "metro_p50": 167826.0, "metro_p75": 181044.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109304.75, "metro_p50": 136804.4, "metro_p75": 146514.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53884.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 68815.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84228.0, "metro_p50": 107272.2, "metro_p75": 121132.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 58761.0, "metro_p75": 61098.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48637.5, "metro_p50": 77508.0, "metro_p75": 81515.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 72348.0, "metro_p75": 84395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 48638.0, "metro_p75": 52186.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 113767.6, "metro_p75": 134500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 87991.2, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83624.0, "metro_p50": 96667.2, "metro_p75": 106343.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57349.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 117369.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 84000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 141405.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 109873.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80798.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:57.224034+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jefferson-city-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}