{"schema_version": 1, "id": "jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 286, "label": "Jacksonville, NC MSA", "slug": "jacksonville-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:25.200329+00:00", "headline": "Jacksonville jobless rate ticks up as labor force keeps shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Jacksonville MSA unemployment rose to 4.2% from 3.9% in June even as the civilian labor force fell to 71,000, a pattern distinct from North Carolina's steadier 3.5% statewide rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.9% in June; NC state rate 3.5%"}, {"label": "Civilian labor force", "value": "71,000", "context": "Down from 72,500 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm employment", "value": "800,300", "context": "+2,600 jobs (+0.3%) year-over-year through June"}, {"label": "Average weekly wage (NC)", "value": "$1,198", "context": "Down 0.3% year-over-year statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment tick-up masks a shrinking labor pool, not weaker demand.", "body": "Jacksonville's rate rose to 4.2% from 3.9% in June even as payrolls grew 0.3% over the year, while the civilian labor force fell from 72,500 to 71,000 over the same window. That combination is consistent with people exiting the labor force rather than a genuine downturn in job availability \u2014 a distinction that matters for how the metro's growth story gets told."}, {"headline": "Health care and professional services are carrying the metro's growth.", "body": "Education and Health Services advanced 4.8% annually and Professional and Business Services 2.0%, outpacing the metro's overall 0.3% payroll growth. Onslow Memorial Hospital's footprint and a modestly diversifying services sector appear to be offsetting softer momentum elsewhere in the local basket."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay for skilled trades diverges sharply from retail and delivery roles.", "body": "HVAC technician pay sits at $81,120 locally versus $70,720 nationally, while delivery driver pay fell significantly to $32,037. Widening local spread between trades/logistics and consumer-facing retail work is consistent with the statewide pattern of wage gains concentrating in higher-paying occupations while middle- and lower-wage roles lag."}, {"headline": "Military and hospital anchors provide stability state job growth elsewhere lacks.", "body": "North Carolina's manufacturing sector remains the state's largest net job loser, yet Jacksonville manufacturing still posted modest 1.4% annual growth. Public-sector and institutional anchors \u2014 the Marine Corps presence and the regional hospital system \u2014 appear to be insulating the metro from the sharper sector swings showing up in statewide and national data."}], "local_conditions": "Jacksonville MSA unemployment edged up to 4.2% in preliminary August data from 3.9% in June, running slightly above both the North Carolina rate of 3.5% and signaling a modest softening even as nonfarm payrolls grew 2,600 jobs (+0.3%) over the year to 800,300. The metro's civilian labor force continued contracting, from 72,500 in January to 71,000 by June, consistent with the statewide pattern of shrinking labor supply tied to slowing population growth and declining participation rather than a collapse in local demand.", "implications": "Growth concentrated in Education and Health Services (+4.8%), Professional and Business Services (+2.0%), and Manufacturing (+1.4%) suggests the metro's economic base remains anchored by Onslow Memorial Hospital, Camp Lejeune-linked military spending, and a modestly diversifying private sector rather than broad-based expansion. Shrinking labor force paired with a ticking-up unemployment rate is an unusual combination worth monitoring \u2014 it may reflect fewer people actively searching rather than genuine cooling, which matters for how local officials and commerce groups characterize the metro's growth story to prospective investors. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should frame local economic messaging around labor force participation trends alongside the headline unemployment rate, rather than unemployment alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the Jacksonville MSA's rising unemployment rate (4.2% from 3.9%) persists into the next BLS release or reverses once seasonal and labor force effects settle. A sustained rise alongside continued labor force contraction would be a materially different story than a one-month blip."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "North Carolina's 13 WARN notices filed in the past 90 days hit manufacturing, transportation/logistics, and healthcare hardest statewide; none have yet surfaced specifically in Onslow County. Commerce and economic development leaders should track whether any statewide manufacturing pressure reaches local plants over the next reporting cycle."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant", "body": "Statewide reporting ties declining foreign-born labor participation to construction and agriculture sector pressure. Jacksonville's construction-adjacent advertised pay (Construction Laborer down moderately to $34,320) bears watching as a local proxy for whether this dynamic is reaching the metro's building trades."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first sustained real-wage decline in two years. Local wage data lags nationally, so a similar erosion in Jacksonville's $1,198 average weekly wage (already down 0.3% year-over-year statewide) would be a signal worth flagging for consumer spending forecasts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22158.25, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22126.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26363.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31344.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48563.5, "metro_p50": 74591.0, "metro_p75": 85950.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30625.0, "metro_p50": 32037.4, "metro_p75": 32862.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28841.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 60320.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32733.0, "metro_p50": 36836.0, "metro_p75": 36836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 38313.0, "metro_p75": 38313.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32241.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 45851.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29000.0, "metro_p50": 37651.8, "metro_p75": 39050.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69107.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74344.0, "metro_p50": 95175.0, "metro_p75": 104194.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113926.0, "metro_p50": 144895.0, "metro_p75": 161200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100466.5, "metro_p50": 126436.0, "metro_p75": 140869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60008.0, "metro_p50": 74049.0, "metro_p75": 74238.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70599.0, "metro_p50": 88461.0, "metro_p75": 96797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 67656.0, "metro_p75": 75996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 62593.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 83364.0, "metro_p75": 89625.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27720.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 49206.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51892.5, "metro_p50": 83429.0, "metro_p75": 88041.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81669.0, "metro_p50": 97436.2, "metro_p75": 109200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 47469.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36052.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55947.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 69679.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43908.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 47051.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29046.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66347.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:54.226747+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/jacksonville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}