{"schema_version": 1, "id": "iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 262, "label": "Iowa City, IA MSA", "slug": "iowa-city-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:55.602369+00:00", "headline": "Iowa City outgrows the state, but wages haven't caught up.", "headline_summary": "Iowa City's 2.7% unemployment rate undercuts the state's 3.2% and the nation's 4.1%, yet average hourly wages of $31.45 still trail the $33.54 national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "2.7%", "context": "June 2026 preliminary, vs 3.2% Iowa, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Metro employment growth rate", "value": "0.9%", "context": "Fastest among Iowa metros, annualized"}, {"label": "Metro average hourly wage", "value": "$31.45", "context": "vs $33.54 national average (May 2025 data)"}, {"label": "Johnson County employment growth", "value": "2.7% y/y", "context": "Q3 2025, vs Iowa statewide near-zero annual job growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Iowa City's tight labor market is a capacity ceiling, not a cushion.", "body": "A 2.7% unemployment rate (June 2026, preliminary) sits well under the state's 3.2% and the national 4.1%, leaving little slack for employers or public agencies to absorb new demand without drawing workers from outside the county. Economic development plans premised on rapid local hiring should account for this structural tightness."}, {"headline": "Local pay still lags the national floor despite low joblessness.", "body": "Average hourly wages of $31.45 trail the national $33.54 even as the metro posts the state's fastest job growth, suggesting wage competition has not caught up to labor scarcity. That gap may constrain the metro's ability to draw workers from neighboring labor markets."}, {"headline": "Government and University of Iowa payrolls remain the stabilizing force.", "body": "State government employment, dominated by the University of Iowa, anchors the metro's largest supersector and offers a buffer against the national trend of government payroll contraction (-17,000 jobs in September nationally). This public-sector weight gives Iowa City more insulation from national hiring cooldowns than most peer metros."}, {"headline": "Statewide sector split is showing up locally in slower-moving categories.", "body": "Iowa's statewide pattern of healthcare and construction gains against trade, transportation, and retail losses is consistent with Johnson County's 2.7% year-over-year employment growth through Q3 2025, concentrated in education/health services rather than goods-moving sectors. Commerce leaders in logistics-adjacent industries should expect flatter local conditions than the metro's headline growth rate implies."}], "local_conditions": "Iowa City's metro economy continues to outpace the state on raw momentum \u2014 June 2026 preliminary data put the local unemployment rate at 2.7%, well below Iowa's statewide 3.2%, and the metro posted the fastest annual employment growth rate (0.9%) among Iowa metros, anchored by University of Iowa and state government payrolls alongside steady healthcare and construction activity. That strength coexists with a wage base that remains below national norms \u2014 the metro's $31.45 average hourly wage trails the U.S. average of $33.54 \u2014 meaning low joblessness locally is not translating into pay levels that match national benchmarks.", "implications": "Tight local labor supply combined with below-national wage levels signals a metro economy running near full employment but without the pay leverage to pull in workers from outside the region, a dynamic that limits how fast local employers can scale operations even when demand is present. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should treat Iowa City's sub-3% unemployment rate as a capacity constraint rather than a simple strength signal \u2014 consider evaluating whether growth plans depend on attracting labor from outside Johnson County given the shrinking pool of local idle workers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "Official BLS unemployment figures for the Iowa City MSA for July through September 2026 have not yet published, leaving current reads anchored to June's 2.7% preliminary rate. Expect a data catch-up in coming weeks that could meaningfully revise the metro's standing relative to the state's steady 3.2%."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Iowa's statewide labor force shrinkage \u2014 driven by retirements among 45-54-year-olds rather than displacement \u2014 has not yet shown a distinct Johnson County signature, but the metro's university- and healthcare-heavy workforce composition makes it a useful bellwether for whether this demographic drag spreads beyond older industrial counties."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth fell to 3.0% in September, its lowest since 2021, while inflation runs at 3.4% \u2014 a gap that, if it persists, could pressure local consumer spending even in a tight-labor metro like Iowa City. Watch whether local retail and food-service advertised pay (both down significantly this month per local postings data) tracks this national softening or diverges."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Iowa's $2.1 billion unemployment trust balance is funding the lowest possible employer tax rates for 2027, a fiscal cushion that could support continued public and quasi-public hiring stability in Johnson County even if national government payrolls keep contracting."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25141.0, "metro_p50": 30741.8, "metro_p75": 33406.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26668.0, "metro_p50": 30221.4, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32194.0, "metro_p50": 36742.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56945.0, "metro_p50": 76100.2, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30384.0, "metro_p50": 34201.6, "metro_p75": 40748.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 49420.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 69621.4, "metro_p75": 82510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30725.0, "metro_p50": 34744.8, "metro_p75": 35106.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31926.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28375.0, "metro_p50": 29718.2, "metro_p75": 36328.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35243.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42818.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89315.0, "metro_p50": 110240.0, "metro_p75": 118921.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 123989.0, "metro_p50": 170000.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90091.0, "metro_p50": 97444.0, "metro_p75": 108018.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53839.5, "metro_p50": 59322.4, "metro_p75": 62689.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65407.0, "metro_p50": 78843.0, "metro_p75": 88553.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36456.0, "metro_p50": 71886.6, "metro_p75": 76397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47758.0, "metro_p50": 65257.4, "metro_p75": 76380.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64060.0, "metro_p50": 94295.8, "metro_p75": 101537.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 45759.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75140.0, "metro_p50": 90031.8, "metro_p75": 97000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85869.0, "metro_p50": 90427.0, "metro_p75": 95304.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61928.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36915.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64158.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 56605.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49310.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 46000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 44925.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65626.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:45.727518+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/iowa-city-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}