{"schema_version": 1, "id": "indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 254, "label": "Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA", "slug": "indianapolis-carmel-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:41:04.587054+00:00", "headline": "Indianapolis jobs shrink as its workforce shrinks faster.", "headline_summary": "Indianapolis lost 1,700 jobs in September for a second straight month, even as unemployment held at 3.3% to 3.6% and area wages grew 7.6% year-over-year \u2014 a sign the labor force is contracting.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro job change, September", "value": "-1,700", "context": "Second consecutive monthly decline"}, {"label": "Metro/county unemployment rate", "value": "3.3%-3.6%", "context": "Lowest in Indiana; vs 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Metro labor force change, YoY", "value": "-1.3%", "context": "Down ~15,500 workers through August 2026"}, {"label": "Metro total wage growth, YoY", "value": "7.6%", "context": "vs 4.8% national (Q1 2025-Q1 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Job losses and a tight labor market are telling the same story.", "body": "Indianapolis shed 1,700 jobs in September, its second straight monthly decline, while unemployment held near 3.3% to 3.6% \u2014 a combination that typically signals fewer people in the labor force. Economic development messaging built solely on low unemployment risks overstating available workforce capacity for incoming employers."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and manufacturing are carrying the metro's hiring signal.", "body": "Statewide, Private Educational and Health Services (+3,700) and Manufacturing (+3,500) drove nearly all job growth in the most recent month, consistent with Indianapolis-area strength in registered nursing pay, up significantly to a metro median of $100,956. Sectors outside these two show comparatively flat advertised pay and demand, suggesting momentum is concentrated."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpacing the nation masks a shrinking base of earners.", "body": "Total wages paid to Indianapolis workers grew 7.6% year-over-year through Q1 2026, well above the 4.8% national rate, but that growth sits alongside a 1.3% year-over-year drop in labor force size. Strong aggregate wage figures should be read against a smaller pool of participating workers before being cited as evidence of broad economic acceleration."}, {"headline": "CDL driver pay softened even as freight-dependent sectors stay visible.", "body": "Metro CDL Truck Driver advertised pay declined moderately to $78,000, roughly matching the national median after historically trading above it, a signal worth watching given the metro's logistics and distribution footprint. Warehouse Manager pay also fell significantly locally (to $67,500), a pattern commerce leaders tracking the logistics sector's health should monitor alongside freight volume data."}], "local_conditions": "Indianapolis metro employment fell for a second consecutive month in September, down 1,700 jobs, even as the region holds the state's lowest unemployment rate at 3.3% to 3.6% across Marion and surrounding counties and total wages paid to area workers climbed 7.6% year-over-year through Q1 2026, well above the 4.8% national pace. The apparent contradiction \u2014 job losses alongside a tight labor market and strong wage growth \u2014 is consistent with a labor force that has contracted roughly 15,500 workers (1.3%) year-over-year, meaning fewer job losses are landing on unemployment rolls because fewer people are actively seeking work.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force participation locally means low unemployment reflects fewer available workers, a distinction that matters for any organization weighing local expansion or site-selection decisions. Commerce leaders should read Indianapolis's tight labor market alongside flat-to-declining employment as a capacity constraint story \u2014 strong wage gains in sectors like registered nursing (up significantly to a $100,956 metro median) and electricians signal where real demand persists even as the broader count contracts. Consider evaluating labor force trends alongside unemployment figures before drawing conclusions about the metro's capacity to support new investment or expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Indianapolis has now posted two straight months of job losses after a seven-month stretch of negative year-over-year change statewide earlier in 2026. A third consecutive monthly decline in the October release would mark a trend meaningful enough to reshape regional economic narratives ahead of year-end planning cycles."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Indiana's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.4% in September, its first increase since August 2024, though BLS does not yet consider the move statistically significant. Watch whether the October state release confirms a turn or reverts to the 3.3% floor held since February."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "CPI data due November 10 will clarify whether Indianapolis's strong nominal wage growth (7.6% year-over-year) is translating into real purchasing power gains for area households, given that national real wage growth has been roughly flat to negative this year. That figure matters directly for consumer spending projections commerce leaders rely on for retail and services forecasting."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Indiana's 106,223 open job postings as of late September, a signal of hiring demand that often covers several openings per ad, indicate continued employer demand despite the shrinking labor force, a gap that could tighten further if labor force participation does not recover. Local economic development officials should track whether postings convert to filled positions or persist as a signal of unmet demand."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23821.0, "metro_p50": 30910.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24894.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30726.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31471.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59911.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 89148.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29410.0, "metro_p50": 35188.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35910.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44772.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64453.75, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33368.0, "metro_p50": 38220.0, "metro_p75": 43020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27957.0, "metro_p50": 31013.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34422.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45708.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58901.0, "metro_p50": 72332.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82488.0, "metro_p50": 100956.0, "metro_p75": 111061.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109558.0, "metro_p50": 145587.0, "metro_p75": 162522.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95755.0, "metro_p50": 130443.0, "metro_p75": 147887.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55453.0, "metro_p50": 67256.2, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67746.0, "metro_p50": 83974.6, "metro_p75": 95877.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55581.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47984.0, "metro_p50": 59375.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 84766.0, "metro_p75": 92092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 50327.0, "metro_p75": 54291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63378.0, "metro_p50": 97000.0, "metro_p75": 117617.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65401.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 81569.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75788.0, "metro_p50": 97043.0, "metro_p75": 106568.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 98000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40285.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64818.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 138606.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 71208.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 68380.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60333.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32699.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65623.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:34.577769+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/indianapolis-carmel-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}