{"schema_version": 1, "id": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 164, "label": "IL NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "il-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:40:34.677906+00:00", "headline": "Downstate Illinois managers face a tightening market on flat pay.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay slipped to $57,890 locally against a stable $59,724 nationally, even as 70% of Illinois operators report difficult-to-fill openings and statewide unemployment fell to 4.6%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Illinois unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Third straight monthly decline, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay", "value": "$57,890", "context": "Metro, down vs. stable $59,724 national"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"label": "Illinois leisure/hospitality weekly wage", "value": "$636", "context": "Lowest of any sector statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manager pay is flat while the labor market is not.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay moved down to $57,890 locally against a stable national $59,724, even as 70% of operators report difficult-to-fill openings statewide. A widening gap between advertised management pay and reported hiring difficulty may signal operators are absorbing vacancy costs instead of repricing the role."}, {"headline": "Federal 80/20 rule repeal changes FOH wage math, unevenly.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage threshold lets employers apply tip credit to side work without the old 20% cap, but Illinois' $9.00 state tipped cash wage and Chicago's $12.96 tipped floor mean the practical benefit varies sharply by jurisdiction. Nonmetro operators closer to the state floor stand to gain more flexibility on side-work scheduling than Chicago-area counterparts already paying elevated tipped minimums."}, {"headline": "BOH-FOH demand asymmetry is reshaping where wage pressure lands.", "body": "BLS projects cook employment growth of 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers, while food and beverage serving roles already churn at roughly 21% annually versus 10.3% across all occupations. Compensation strategy built around FOH retention may be solving yesterday's problem as BOH scarcity becomes the next front for wage competition."}, {"headline": "Paid leave mandate adds a hidden cost to seasonal staffing math.", "body": "Illinois' Paid Leave for All Workers Act requires one hour of paid leave per 40 hours worked, applying to seasonal and part-time staff alike. Nonmetro operators scaling down for winter should factor this accrual into labor-cost-as-revenue-share projections and treat it as more than a line item confined to full-time payroll."}], "local_conditions": "Downstate Illinois restaurant operators are navigating a statewide labor pool that remains structurally tight even as unemployment ticks down to 4.6%, with much of that improvement traced to urban and suburban metro gains while rural county hiring lags. Nonmetro counties face a dual squeeze: an immigration-driven slowdown in entry-level labor supply colliding with BOH turnover pressures that BLS projects will intensify as cook demand grows 12% through 2035 against flat server demand, leaving downstate operators competing for a shrinking pipeline with fewer wage levers than their Chicago-area counterparts.", "implications": "Fragmented wage floors across Illinois mean nonmetro operators are no longer competing only with each other on pay \u2014 Chicago's $17.05 minimum and Cook County's $15.40 non-tipped floor effectively set a ceiling-adjacent reference point that downstate candidates now benchmark against, even where cost-of-living and revenue per labor hour look nothing alike. Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay softening to a metro median of $57,890 against a national $59,724 suggests downstate operators are holding back from bidding aggressively for management talent, which is a risk if turnover in that role accelerates alongside the broader 80% industry-wide churn rate. Organizations should evaluate whether flat GM compensation reflects a deliberate cost-control stance or a lagging response to a tightening regional labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "State LAUS data for October publishes November 20 and metro-area detail follows December 2 \u2014 the first chance to see whether downstate nonmetro counties are sharing in the statewide unemployment decline or lagging behind Chicago and Champaign."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Winnebago County employment fell 1.7% and Kane County fell 1.5% year-over-year through Q1 2026, signaling downstate labor markets outside the core metros may be contracting even as statewide headlines read positive. Watch whether this spreads to other nonmetro counties feeding restaurant labor pools."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "No Illinois state minimum wage increase is scheduled, but Chicago and Cook County moved again in July. Multi-unit operators spanning metro and nonmetro locations should watch for any 2027 state legislative action that could compress the gap."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois' labor force participation rate has slipped to 63.6% amid a statewide workforce contraction of nearly 109,000 over the past year. A shrinking labor force in rural counties could tighten the entry-level restaurant hiring pool faster than wage data alone will show."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31913.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40222.0, "metro_p50": 55392.6, "metro_p75": 56757.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26221.0, "metro_p50": 30996.4, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48269.0, "metro_p50": 57890.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32581.0, "metro_p75": 35152.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28698.0, "metro_p50": 33259.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cooks projected to grow 12% 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Labor / Cook County", "source_url": null, "statement": "Chicago minimum wage $17.05, Cook County $15.40 non-tipped as of July 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act accrual requirement"}, {"source_name": "BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County -1.7%, Kane County -1.5% employment year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois unemployment rate 4.6% in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:30.643894+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}