{"schema_version": 1, "id": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 164, "label": "IL NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "il-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:44:44.406422+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Illinois loses workers faster than it loses jobs.", "headline_summary": "Illinois' labor force contracted 1.3% year-over-year even as statewide unemployment fell to 4.6% for a third straight month, a divergence that points to worker availability as the binding constraint on nonmetro business expansion.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Illinois unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Third straight monthly decline, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide labor force change", "value": "-1.3%", "context": "Year-over-year, despite falling unemployment"}, {"label": "Labor force participation rate", "value": "63.6%", "context": "Down from prior year, IDES data"}, {"label": "Largest WARN filing", "value": "2,495 workers", "context": "Tyson Foods, Hillsdale, closed Oct. 12, 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force exodus is the defining nonmetro story.", "body": "Illinois' labor force shrank roughly 109,000 over the year ending December 2025 and fell another 1.3% year-over-year through September, a trend likely to hit rural counties hardest given slower population replacement. For commerce leaders, this reframes the local challenge from job creation to workforce retention and in-migration."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing closures concentrate pain in specific counties.", "body": "The Tyson Foods closure in Hillsdale (2,495 workers, Oct. 12) and continued WARN activity in manufacturing (41 notices, 8,354 employees statewide) show rural plant closures carry outsized local impact even as statewide manufacturing employment grows nationally. A single facility closure in a small county can move that county's unemployment rate more than a similar event would in Chicago."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wages offer a stabilizing signal amid rural uncertainty.", "body": "Certified Nursing Assistant pay locally ($44,200) runs above the national median ($41,600) and continues rising, consistent with statewide healthcare sector resilience even as government and private education payrolls contracted in September. Healthcare's wage strength may help some nonmetro counties retain workers who would otherwise leave for metro opportunities."}, {"headline": "Champaign's record employment contrasts with broader nonmetro softness.", "body": "Champaign metro reached record-high jobs in October reporting while six Illinois counties saw unemployment increase year-over-year, underscoring that nonmetro Illinois is a patchwork of outcomes rather than a single economy. Commerce leaders should resist treating statewide or 'nonmetro' averages as representative of any single county's trajectory."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Illinois counties show mixed conditions this September, with unemployment generally tracking the statewide 4.6% rate but with wider variation by county than in metro Illinois, reflecting a mix of agriculture, manufacturing, and healthcare employment bases. Statewide labor force contraction of 1.3% year-over-year, combined with persistent manufacturing and distribution-center layoffs flagged in WARN filings (Tyson Foods' 2,495-worker Hillsdale closure chief among them), suggests rural and small-town Illinois counties are losing working-age residents faster than they are losing jobs.", "implications": "Shrinking rural labor force paired with flat-to-declining payrolls signals a local economy constrained by worker availability, a distinction that matters for economic development planning and site-selection conversations with prospective employers. Commerce leaders weighing business attraction or expansion incentives should treat labor force participation as the leading indicator of whether a county can support new investment. Consider reviewing county-level labor force participation trends alongside unemployment data when assessing which nonmetro communities have capacity to absorb new employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "State employment data for October publishes November 20, with county-level nonmetro detail following December 2. Watch whether the third consecutive monthly statewide unemployment decline extends to nonmetro counties specifically."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued WARN filings in manufacturing and retail trade (31 notices, 3,285 employees statewide) suggest more rural plant or distribution-center announcements are plausible before year-end. Local commerce organizations should track whether displaced manufacturing workers surface in nearby county labor pools or exit the labor force entirely."}, {"category": "Policy signal to monitor", "body": "Federal immigration enforcement activity and tariff policy continue to be cited by state officials as sources of economic uncertainty affecting Illinois manufacturing and agriculture. Nonmetro counties with agriculture-dependent economies warrant particular attention to any shifts in seasonal or migrant labor availability, reported here as fact without policy judgment."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Labor force participation, now at 63.6% statewide, is the metric most likely to reveal whether nonmetro Illinois stabilizes or continues contracting. A further decline would signal deepening structural constraints on local business expansion regardless of unemployment headlines."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28522.0, "metro_p50": 32500.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28780.0, "metro_p50": 31824.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32139.0, "metro_p50": 38000.0, "metro_p75": 40120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59335.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29200.0, "metro_p50": 31859.0, "metro_p75": 33857.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40635.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58945.0, "metro_p50": 71245.4, "metro_p75": 76522.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35162.0, "metro_p50": 38800.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32882.0, "metro_p50": 37952.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30104.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36673.0, "metro_p50": 44200.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34009.0, "metro_p50": 41042.0, "metro_p75": 44974.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60078.5, "metro_p50": 70740.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85049.0, "metro_p50": 103337.0, "metro_p75": 113674.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111574.5, "metro_p50": 152928.0, "metro_p75": 168044.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 141065.6, "metro_p75": 159243.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58122.5, "metro_p50": 69004.8, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 89860.8, "metro_p75": 99985.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 74276.8, "metro_p75": 86298.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39240.5, "metro_p50": 55509.6, "metro_p75": 68071.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78750.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90166.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46000.0, "metro_p50": 60242.6, "metro_p75": 65583.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62829.25, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 124000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83926.5, "metro_p50": 108500.0, "metro_p75": 124250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 96621.4, "metro_p75": 109135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 73248.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 96815.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43776.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65260.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 124332.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 102547.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 89363.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69472.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33184.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62412.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois labor force fell 1.3% year-over-year through September"}, {"source_name": "Illinois WARN Act notices", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tyson Foods closure affecting 2,495 workers in Hillsdale"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Champaign metro reached record-high employment in October reporting"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois labor force participation rate at 63.6%"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois workforce shrank nearly 109,000 over year ending Dec. 2025"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois unemployment fell to 4.6%, third consecutive monthly decline"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:30.282102+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}