{"schema_version": 1, "id": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 164, "label": "IL NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "il-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:55.396425+00:00", "headline": "Illinois jobless rate falls as workforce shrinks, not jobs grow", "headline_summary": "Illinois's labor force contracted from 6,571,000 to 6,477,000 between March and August 2026 even as statewide payrolls grew just 15,000 year-over-year, suggesting the state's improving unemployment rate reflects fewer workers, not stronger local hiring.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Illinois labor force", "value": "6,477,000", "context": "Down from 6,571,000 in March 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois unemployment rate", "value": "4.7%", "context": "August 2026; ranks 40th among states"}, {"label": "Illinois payroll growth", "value": "+15,000 jobs YoY", "context": "Essentially flat vs. 5.99M total employed"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "3.0% wages vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "Weakest wage position since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A falling jobless rate is masking a shrinking workforce, not strength.", "body": "Illinois's labor force fell by roughly 94,000 between March and August 2026 while household employment stayed flat, meaning the improved unemployment rate reflects fewer people working or looking, not stronger hiring. Nonmetropolitan counties, already facing demographic headwinds, are likely experiencing this contraction more acutely than Chicago-area peers."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are pulling away from logistics in pay momentum.", "body": "Electricians and HVAC technicians show significant upward pay movement locally and nationally, while CDL drivers, delivery drivers, and warehouse associates are down moderately \u2014 a split that tracks the national divergence between blue-collar construction/healthcare gains and softness in transportation and administrative roles. For commerce leaders, this points to where local economic capacity is actually expanding versus contracting."}, {"headline": "State job creation can't offset the labor force exit.", "body": "Illinois payrolls rose only 15,000 year-over-year through August even as construction and private education/health services posted the strongest gains \u2014 modest enough that Moody's projects essentially flat employment from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. Nonmetro areas, without Chicago's and Springfield's metro-level momentum, likely see this stagnation more directly."}, {"headline": "Capital commitments offer a counter-signal worth tracking locally.", "body": "Illinois recorded nearly $2.5 billion in EDGE tax-credit-linked investment commitments in Q1 2026 alone, already exceeding all of 2025, including large single-site projects like the $450 million Hyundai Translead Will County facility. Whether similar capital flows reach nonmetro counties \u2014 rather than concentrating in Chicago-adjacent corridors \u2014 is the key open question for downstate economic development offices."}], "local_conditions": "Illinois nonmetropolitan regions continue to absorb a statewide labor force contraction \u2014 down to 6,477,000 in August 2026 from 6,571,000 in March \u2014 that is shrinking the unemployment rate even as household employment stays flat, a pattern Moody's attributes to demographic and migration headwinds rather than job creation. Against that backdrop, advertised pay across downstate-relevant sectors shows construction and skilled trades (electricians up significantly, HVAC technicians up significantly) outperforming warehouse, trucking, and delivery roles, which are down moderately \u2014 consistent with the national split between hands-on labor demand and softening logistics activity.", "implications": "Labor force contraction rather than job growth driving down the jobless rate signals a tightening available workforce for commerce leaders weighing local expansion, even as statewide job creation remains essentially flat into 2026. Divergence between strong skilled-trades pay and softening logistics/warehouse pay suggests uneven capacity across the basket \u2014 construction and healthcare-linked sectors show more room to absorb investment than transportation-dependent ones. Current conditions suggest economic development and chamber leadership should weigh workforce-participation trends alongside headline unemployment when evaluating site-selection or expansion pitches to prospective employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September state labor data release (scheduled October 20) will show whether the labor-force contraction trend seen through August persists or begins to stabilize. A continued decline would reinforce that Illinois's improving headline unemployment rate is a participation story, not a hiring story."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois logged 29 WARN notices affecting 9,357 workers in the trailing 90 days, including Uber, GoHealth, and T-Mobile filings concentrated in the Chicago area. Watch whether displaced workers migrate toward downstate labor markets or whether nonmetro areas remain insulated from these metro-centered cuts."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage position since 2021 \u2014 a dynamic that, if it persists locally, would pressure consumer spending at downstate retailers and service businesses regardless of local hiring conditions."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Illinois's long-run employment growth forecast of just 0.6% (versus 2.8% nationally) rests heavily on whether EDGE-incentivized capital projects extend beyond Chicago-adjacent counties. Nonmetro economic development leaders should track whether any Q1 2026-style investment announcements name downstate sites specifically."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28429.0, "metro_p50": 32500.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28615.0, "metro_p50": 31807.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32229.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 75790.0, "metro_p75": 85450.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29200.0, "metro_p50": 32033.0, "metro_p75": 34308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40616.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58921.75, "metro_p50": 71388.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34395.0, "metro_p50": 38800.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33140.0, "metro_p50": 38191.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30108.0, "metro_p50": 33125.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 44200.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33634.0, "metro_p50": 40929.0, "metro_p75": 44727.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57737.0, "metro_p50": 66699.6, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85303.0, "metro_p50": 104452.0, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113420.75, "metro_p50": 152972.0, "metro_p75": 168423.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99175.0, "metro_p50": 143341.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58653.25, "metro_p50": 70935.4, "metro_p75": 79512.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 92199.2, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53050.5, "metro_p50": 77099.4, "metro_p75": 86471.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41589.5, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 69914.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65948.25, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 89754.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45738.25, "metro_p50": 60245.0, "metro_p75": 64993.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61810.0, "metro_p50": 96855.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80500.0, "metro_p50": 105101.0, "metro_p75": 108500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81328.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 75651.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 98053.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64147.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 124500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 110000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 89279.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 70721.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65633.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:40.819643+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/il-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}