{"schema_version": 1, "id": "idaho-falls-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 209, "label": "Idaho Falls, ID MSA", "slug": "idaho-falls-id-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:42:16.460418+00:00", "headline": "Idaho Falls cooks take 58 days to hire as wages climb 12.5%.", "headline_summary": "Average advertised hourly wages in southeastern Idaho rose to $22.09 from $19.63 a year ago, even as Eastern Idaho cook job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, averaged 58 days to fill and metro unemployment climbed to 3.9%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Southeastern Idaho unemployment", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Up from 3.1% Bonneville County rate in July"}, {"label": "Avg. advertised hourly wage, SE Idaho", "value": "$22.09", "context": "Up 12.5% from $19.63 a year ago"}, {"label": "Cook posting time-to-fill, Eastern Idaho", "value": "58 days", "context": "vs. 41 days in North Central Idaho"}, {"label": "Idaho Falls nonfarm job growth", "value": "+0.1% MoM", "context": "-1.7% YoY, steepest decline among Idaho MSAs"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Back-of-house vacancies are the metro's real cost driver.", "body": "Eastern Idaho cook job ads, which track hiring demand and often cover several openings each, averaged 58 days to fill in September, well above the 41-day North Central Idaho comparison, pointing to a structural BOH shortage that likely forces overtime premiums or reduced hours on an ongoing basis."}, {"headline": "Server and shift manager pay is softening locally against a flat national trend.", "body": "Metro server pay ($28,366) and shift manager pay ($31,200) both moved down moderately this month while national medians held stable, suggesting Idaho Falls operators have more leverage on front-of-house compensation than the national picture implies."}, {"headline": "The 80/20 rule repeal changes the tipped-wage calculus mid-quarter.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 threshold lets operators apply the $3.35 Idaho tipped cash wage to side work without the prior 20% cap, a policy shift that could ease FOH labor cost pressure just as BOH costs climb."}, {"headline": "Limited-service contraction signals a tightening full-service talent contest.", "body": "Southeastern Idaho limited-service job ads fell from 81 to 53 year-over-year while full-service activity expanded statewide, a pattern consistent with full-service operators competing harder for a shrinking pool of experienced FOH talent."}], "local_conditions": "Southeastern Idaho unemployment climbed to 3.9% in September, with Idaho Falls nonfarm payrolls up just 0.1% month-over-month and the metro posting the steepest year-over-year job decline among Idaho MSAs at -1.7%, consistent with a labor market cooling after an extended tight stretch. Average advertised hourly wages across the region rose to $22.09 in September from $19.63 a year earlier, a 12.5% jump that, combined with time-to-fill stretching to 31 days, suggests employers are raising pay to compensate for a shrinking and slower-moving candidate pool.", "implications": "Cook job ads in Eastern Idaho, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, carried a median 58-day fill time in September, a back-of-house bottleneck that compounds restaurant turnover already running near 80% annually and pressures labor cost as a share of revenue when shifts go uncovered. Metro server pay has moved down moderately even as the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule was formally withdrawn this month, widening the gap between what operators can legally pay for side work and what full-service competitors are advertising to attract front-of-house staff. Current conditions suggest reviewing back-of-house pay structures and time-to-fill benchmarks separately from front-of-house tipped-wage strategy, since the two roles are now moving on distinct cost and recruitment tracks.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Southeastern Idaho unemployment rose to 3.9% from a tighter base earlier in 2026 even as labor force participation statewide declined, worth tracking for whether restaurant candidate supply improves or continues to thin heading into winter hiring."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Cook time-to-fill at 58 days in Eastern Idaho has not shown signs of easing; a second consecutive month above 50 days would indicate the BOH shortage is structural across seasons, with direct implications for overtime and premium-pay budgeting."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "80/20 rule withdrawal just took effect in October; watch whether metro tipped-wage job ads begin reflecting lower guaranteed cash rates for side work over the next one to two posting cycles."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Eastern Idaho job openings rose 15% month-over-month to 5,962 in September, a broad demand signal; monitor whether restaurant-specific job ads track that growth or continue lagging it, which would confirm sector-specific hiring caution."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28150.0, "metro_p50": 37097.0, "metro_p75": 40855.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 55079.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24154.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27999.5, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 75625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25817.0, "metro_p50": 28366.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26441.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Southeastern Idaho unemployment reached 3.9% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Labor Market Information", "source_url": null, "statement": "Average advertised hourly wage in SE Idaho rose to $22.09 from $19.63"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Eastern Idaho cook postings had 58-day median fill time in September"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Idaho Falls MSA nonfarm payrolls up 0.1% MoM, -1.7% YoY in September"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant industry annual turnover near 80%, up from pre-pandemic 72%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "idaho-falls-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "idaho-falls-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:28.367327+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/idaho-falls-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/idaho-falls-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}