{"schema_version": 1, "id": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 320, "label": "ID NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "id-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:39:40.948418+00:00", "headline": "Rural Idaho's cook shortage outpaces its wage data.", "headline_summary": "Eastern Idaho cook postings took a median 58 days to fill in September even as metro Restaurant Manager advertised pay fell to $57,667, a sign local compensation may be lagging actual hiring difficulty.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Eastern Idaho cook posting duration", "value": "58 days", "context": "North Central Idaho averaged 41 days, both elevated"}, {"label": "North Central Idaho postings-per-unemployed", "value": "1.4", "context": "Up from 1.1 a year earlier"}, {"label": "Metro Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay", "value": "$57,667", "context": "Down moderately vs stable $59,724 national median"}, {"label": "Northern Idaho unemployment rate", "value": "4.64%", "context": "vs 3.5% Eastern/South Central Idaho, 3.6% statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Back-of-house vacancies are the cost driver to watch.", "body": "Eastern Idaho cook postings averaged 58 days to fill in September and North Central Idaho averaged 41 days, both elevated, while metro line cook advertised pay held stable at $34,893. Extended vacancy duration appears to be the primary pressure point on labor cost and operating hours in back-of-house roles."}, {"headline": "Full-service hiring demand is expanding while limited-service contracts.", "body": "Southwestern Idaho full-service postings (job ads, which track hiring demand and often cover several openings each) rose to 297 from 220 year-over-year as limited-service postings fell to 515 from 534, a divergence also visible in Southeastern Idaho's drop to 53 limited-service postings from 81. Operators in full-service formats may face intensifying wage competition for the same shrinking pool of experienced FOH and kitchen staff."}, {"headline": "Metro advertised pay is softening even as rural labor markets tighten structurally.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager advertised pay fell moderately to $57,667 locally against a stable $59,724 national median, and crew pay dropped to $26,000 against a stable $30,066 nationally. Declining advertised pay alongside persistently long cook vacancy durations suggests employers may be holding wage lines even where fill times indicate a tighter market than local pay data reflects."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation widens the gap between policy flexibility and local wage reality.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule gives operators more latitude to pay the $2.13 federal tipped minimum for side work, but Idaho's $3.35 tipped cash wage already exceeds that floor. The practical effect in this market is limited \u2014 local wage competition is what's determining FOH compensation here."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Idaho's regional unemployment rates ranged from 3.5% in Eastern and South Central Idaho to 4.64% in Northern Idaho in September, with North Central Idaho's job postings-per-unemployed-person ratio climbing to 1.4 from 1.1 year-over-year \u2014 a sign of tightening competition for workers even as the state holds at structurally low unemployment. Restaurant-specific demand is diverging by region and format: Southwestern Idaho full-service postings (job ads, a signal of hiring demand; one ad often covers several openings) rose to 297 from 220 year-over-year while limited-service postings fell to 515 from 534, and Eastern Idaho cook postings carried a 58-day median fill time in September, pointing to persistent back-of-house recruitment friction layered onto an already tight rural labor pool.", "implications": "Idaho's $7.25 minimum wage and $3.35 tipped cash wage remain unchanged, so operators cannot count on policy to compress front-of-house labor costs \u2014 wage competitiveness in this market is being set by local demand conditions. Extended cook vacancy durations (41-58 days across regions) suggest labor-cost-as-revenue-share pressure is increasingly a back-of-house problem, requiring different retention and wage-ladder tactics than front-of-house roles, where crew and server pay held flat or declined locally this month. Consider reviewing cook and line-cook pay structures against regional fill-time data, since Eastern Idaho's 58-day median suggests wage competitiveness thresholds vary meaningfully by labor market area.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Watch whether North Central Idaho's rising postings-per-unemployed ratio (1.4, up from 1.1) translates into faster wage growth for cook and prep roles over the next two months, particularly as new restaurant openings in Eastern Idaho add competing demand for the same limited labor pool."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Southwestern Idaho's limited-service contraction alongside full-service expansion may force operators to recruit across format lines, intensifying competition for shift managers and servers with multi-concept experience."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "South Central Idaho's year-over-year decline in postings, employer count, and average hourly wages is a signal of softening demand distinct from the rest of the state; operators there may see easier fill times but should confirm whether this reflects reduced competition or restaurant closures."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National cook employment is projected to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers, a BOH/FOH wage pressure asymmetry already visible locally in extended cook vacancy durations. Expect regional wage ladders for kitchen roles to continue diverging from front-of-house pay over coming quarters."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37815.0, "metro_p75": 41421.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 55079.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28260.0, "metro_p50": 34893.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42032.0, "metro_p50": 57667.0, "metro_p75": 68578.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27034.75, "metro_p50": 32948.0, "metro_p75": 34742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26441.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Central Idaho postings-per-unemployed ratio rose to 1.4 from 1.1 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Regional unemployment rates for Northern, North Central, Eastern, South Central Idaho"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Eastern Idaho cook postings had 58-day median duration in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Southwestern Idaho full-service and limited-service posting counts year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% cook employment growth through 2035 vs 2% for servers"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:26.306163+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}