{"schema_version": 1, "id": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 320, "label": "ID NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "id-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:43:55.277706+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Idaho splits: Northern tightens, South Central cools.", "headline_summary": "North Central Idaho's postings-per-unemployed ratio climbed to 1.4 from 1.1 even as South Central Idaho's average wage fell from $30.46 to $22.95, underscoring a fractured regional picture beneath Idaho's flat 3.6% statewide unemployment rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "South Central Idaho wage change", "value": "$30.46 \u2192 $22.95", "context": "Year-over-year decline, signals softened demand"}, {"label": "North Central postings per unemployed", "value": "1.4", "context": "Up from 1.1 a year earlier"}, {"label": "Northern Idaho unemployment", "value": "4.64%", "context": "Down from 4.73% in Sept. 2025, still above state's 3.6%"}, {"label": "Idaho labor force participation", "value": "61.4%", "context": "Down 0.1 pt month-over-month"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "South Central Idaho is cooling while its neighbors tighten.", "body": "Average hourly wages there fell from $30.46 to $22.95 year-over-year alongside a 22% drop in unique postings, a divergence from North Central Idaho's rising postings-per-unemployed ratio (1.1 to 1.4). This suggests labor demand varies by subregion within nonmetro Idaho, with pockets of softness and strength existing side by side."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and construction remain the steadiest regional pillars.", "body": "Statewide projections put healthcare job growth at 2.4% annually through 2034, and nonmetro research notes confirm healthcare and construction as consistent demand drivers across Eastern, Northern, and North Central Idaho. Locally advertised pay for CDL Truck Drivers ($81,120, up significantly) and HVAC Technicians ($76,960, up significantly) reinforces that skilled trades and logistics are commanding real wage momentum."}, {"headline": "Posting duration creep may signal a thinner candidate pipeline.", "body": "Statewide vacancy duration averaged 31 days, and Lewis-Clark State College's 3.4% enrollment drop points to a shrinking pipeline for skilled-trade and healthcare roles in the region. Commerce leaders planning expansion should factor longer fill times into their timelines, since the low unemployment rate alone does not indicate ample available labor."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated in specific occupations across the nonmetro basket.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver and HVAC Technician pay rose significantly locally while Customer Service Representative and Administrative Assistant pay held flat, consistent with the regional pattern of strength in logistics and skilled trades against stagnation in office and service occupations. That split is a more useful local-economy signal than any single aggregate wage figure."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Idaho's regional labor markets diverged sharply in September 2026: Eastern and South Central Idaho held unemployment at 3.5%, Northern Idaho sat elevated at 4.64% despite improving year-over-year, and North Central Idaho ticked up to 3.8%, reflecting uneven industry mix across the state's subregions. Job postings rose in Northern Idaho (up roughly 81 month-over-month, measured by job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings) and in North Central Idaho (postings per unemployed person climbed to 1.4 from 1.1), while South Central Idaho saw postings, employer counts, and average wages all decline year-over-year, a pattern consistent with cooling demand concentrated in that subregion.", "implications": "Regional divergence means a single nonmetro-wide read on business conditions would mislead: Northern and North Central Idaho show tightening competition for workers alongside rising postings, while South Central Idaho's wage and posting declines point to softer local demand and potential overcapacity in that labor pool. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should weight county-level data over statewide averages, since Eastern Idaho's steady conditions and Southwestern Idaho's 31% posting growth statewide mask South Central's retreat. Consider reviewing regional posting and wage trends at the county level before benchmarking expansion plans against statewide Idaho figures.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Regional divergence watch", "body": "South Central Idaho's wage and posting declines warrant monthly tracking to determine whether softness is spreading to neighboring Eastern or North Central regions or remains contained to that subregion."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Lewis-Clark State College's enrollment drop is worth watching against regional healthcare and skilled-trade posting duration over the next two months, as a continued pipeline contraction could further extend the 31-day average fill time."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Labor force participation in Idaho slipped to 61.4% in September; whether nonmetro counties follow that statewide dip bears on how commerce and economic development groups interpret the state's low unemployment rate."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,860 notices through late October) even as Idaho's own WARN activity fell 20% year-over-year; any uptick in nonmetro Idaho filings would be a signal worth flagging given the small base of only 8 notices statewide in 2026."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24620.0, "metro_p50": 31151.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24702.0, "metro_p50": 30259.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30409.0, "metro_p50": 35046.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60414.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26491.0, "metro_p50": 29889.0, "metro_p75": 32622.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44343.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59065.0, "metro_p50": 72560.0, "metro_p75": 76564.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31634.5, "metro_p50": 40860.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28161.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27570.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33414.0, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 43784.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32212.0, "metro_p50": 39309.4, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57928.0, "metro_p50": 76960.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85271.0, "metro_p50": 100510.8, "metro_p75": 108160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99663.0, "metro_p50": 143909.0, "metro_p75": 149865.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85608.0, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 129133.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55173.75, "metro_p50": 66217.0, "metro_p75": 75049.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71027.0, "metro_p50": 83038.0, "metro_p75": 83059.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 58468.0, "metro_p75": 69514.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48282.75, "metro_p50": 52671.4, "metro_p75": 63657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70709.0, "metro_p50": 77612.0, "metro_p75": 82054.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39649.0, "metro_p50": 54175.0, "metro_p75": 60893.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 89099.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79137.0, "metro_p50": 89143.0, "metro_p75": 99216.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 63502.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43850.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 73787.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76911.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 50632.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32025.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65425.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "September 2026 unemployment rates by Idaho nonmetro region"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Central Idaho postings-per-unemployed rose to 1.4 from 1.1"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "South Central Idaho average wage fell from $30.46 to $22.95 YoY"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Idaho healthcare employment projected to grow 2.4% annually through 2034"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Statewide vacancy duration averaging 31 days"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Idaho labor force participation declined to 61.4% in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:25.979775+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}