{"schema_version": 1, "id": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 320, "label": "ID NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "id-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:50.952462+00:00", "headline": "Rural Idaho's jobless rate rises as workers outpace job growth.", "headline_summary": "Southwestern Idaho's unemployment rate climbed from 3.3% to 3.5% as labor force growth outpaced job creation, while statewide unemployment held at 3.6% and CDL driver pay locally hit $80,000, above the $78,000 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Idaho statewide unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Unchanged August vs July 2026"}, {"label": "Southwestern Idaho unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Up from 3.3%; labor force outpaced jobs"}, {"label": "Idaho WARN notices, 2026 YTD", "value": "8 notices / 708 workers", "context": "vs 3,562 notices nationally as of Sept 26"}, {"label": "Northern Idaho avg. hourly wage", "value": "$23.57", "context": "Up from $21.97 a year earlier"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force growth, not job losses, is lifting rural Idaho's jobless rate.", "body": "Southwestern Idaho's labor force grew by 1,164 people between July and August while employment rose only 200, pushing unemployment from 3.3% to 3.5%. That pattern signals more workers entering the market faster than local employers are absorbing them, a healthier story than demand destruction but one that still shows up as a rising rate."}, {"headline": "Wage momentum is splitting sharply by geography.", "body": "Northern Idaho's average hourly wage climbed to $23.57 in July from $21.97 a year earlier, while south-central Idaho posted falling advertised wages and employer counts over the same period. Commerce leaders citing 'Idaho wage growth' in public materials should specify which region they mean."}, {"headline": "Truck driver demand signals rural logistics and goods-movement strength.", "body": "Truck-driver postings more than doubled year-over-year in northern Idaho, and the metro's CDL driver advertised pay of $80,000 now sits above the national median of $78,000 with significant upward momentum. That combination is consistent with sustained freight and distribution activity feeding the regional economy, not a one-off spike."}, {"headline": "State workforce vacancies point to a public-capacity watch item.", "body": "State agencies statewide report an 11.2% vacancy rate alongside high turnover, concentrated in healthcare, IT and trades. Persistent public-sector staffing gaps can slow permitting, licensing and service delivery that commerce leaders rely on for business formation and expansion timelines."}], "local_conditions": "Rural Idaho's labor market cooled modestly in August as unemployment held at a low 3.6% statewide even as labor-force growth outpaced job creation across several regions, pushing unemployment up in southwestern (3.3% to 3.5%), eastern (to 3.6%) and southeastern (to 3.8%) areas. Healthcare, transportation and trades postings remain the clearest demand signals in nonmetro counties, while south-central Idaho saw postings, employer counts and advertised wages all decline year-over-year, pointing to geographically uneven momentum rather than a uniform slowdown.", "implications": "Divergence between southwestern Idaho's posting strength and south-central's wage and demand softening means local business-climate assessments should be drawn county-by-county rather than from a single statewide read. Public-sector stability appears intact for now, but state agency vacancy rates above 11% alongside national government payroll losses suggest public-service capacity bears watching as a constraint on regional economic infrastructure. Civic and commerce leaders should consider tracking regional unemployment and posting-volume divergence separately from statewide averages when briefing on local investment or expansion conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "September state and metro employment figures publish October 20, which will show whether southwestern Idaho's labor-force-outpacing-employment pattern persisted or reversed. Treat any single month's unemployment uptick cautiously until that release confirms the trend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "South-central Idaho's falling advertised wages and postings diverge from the rest of the state; a second consecutive month of decline would sharpen the case that labor demand is softening there specifically rather than statewide."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings rose to 3,562 notices covering 313,234 workers as of late September, though Idaho itself logged only 8 notices and 708 affected workers in 2026, with layoff pace slowing in the last 90 days. A material uptick in Idaho filings would be a meaningful break from this trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, eroding real purchasing power for the first time in two years. If that national pattern reaches Idaho's advertised-wage data, it would pressure consumer spending in retail and services-heavy rural communities."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24648.0, "metro_p50": 31020.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24440.0, "metro_p50": 29841.0, "metro_p75": 32136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30063.0, "metro_p50": 35062.8, "metro_p75": 39400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26491.0, "metro_p50": 30025.0, "metro_p75": 32622.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61490.0, "metro_p50": 70773.0, "metro_p75": 75301.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38470.4, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28240.0, "metro_p50": 33900.0, "metro_p75": 36363.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33497.0, "metro_p50": 39237.6, "metro_p75": 44334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32401.5, "metro_p50": 39395.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 69958.2, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85210.0, "metro_p50": 101793.0, "metro_p75": 108735.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99663.0, "metro_p50": 140826.4, "metro_p75": 149561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85975.0, "metro_p50": 119827.6, "metro_p75": 134476.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56138.0, "metro_p50": 68442.4, "metro_p75": 76153.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71176.0, "metro_p50": 83038.0, "metro_p75": 83038.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 57324.0, "metro_p75": 68500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48618.0, "metro_p50": 54869.8, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51797.0, "metro_p50": 77612.0, "metro_p75": 77612.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43477.0, "metro_p50": 56050.0, "metro_p75": 61540.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60831.0, "metro_p50": 90550.0, "metro_p75": 100962.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79137.0, "metro_p50": 91747.0, "metro_p75": 106125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43992.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 77148.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 77718.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 53959.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32289.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66907.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:37.503799+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/id-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}