{"schema_version": 1, "id": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 193, "label": "Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA", "slug": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:40:36.137298+00:00", "headline": "Houston's jobless rate falls as its job base shrinks", "headline_summary": "Houston's unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% even as the metro shed 7,300 jobs in September and payrolls contracted 0.4% annualized for the quarter \u2014 a divergence that points to labor-force exits as the explanation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Houston unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 4.9% in June 2026"}, {"label": "Q3 Houston payroll change", "value": "-3,800 jobs", "context": "Annualized -0.4%, per Dallas Fed"}, {"label": "September single-month job loss", "value": "-7,300 jobs", "context": "Second-largest Sept. decline since 1990"}, {"label": "Metro wage growth", "value": "1.7% YoY", "context": "Trails Texas's 4.5% and 3.7% national CPI"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment is hiding a shrinking jobs base.", "body": "Houston's jobless rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.5% between June and September even as payrolls fell an annualized 0.4%. That combination points to labor-force exits as the driver, a distinction that changes how the metro's headline number should be read."}, {"headline": "September's downturn hit nearly every private-sector door.", "body": "Leisure and Hospitality lost 7,300 jobs, Professional and Business Services lost 3,900, and Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 2,600 \u2014 the second-largest September decline since 1990. Breadth across sectors points to a shared demand pullback across the local economy."}, {"headline": "Trade and healthcare are the metro's counterweight.", "body": "Exports rose 26.2% on oil and liquid fuels, and Port Houston's containerized trade is pacing for a record year, while healthcare remains among the fastest-growing job categories. These two pillars are doing the work of offsetting contraction elsewhere in the local economy."}, {"headline": "Real wages are flat while resident sentiment sours.", "body": "Metro average hourly wages rose just 1.7% year-over-year to $36.99, trailing both national wage growth and inflation, and residents report rising financial stress and dimmer views of job opportunities. Softening purchasing power is a leading indicator for consumer-facing business conditions metro-wide."}], "local_conditions": "Houston's unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in September from 4.9% in June even as payrolls contracted an annualized 0.4% (-3,800 jobs) over the third quarter, a combination consistent with workers exiting the labor force while the job market itself stayed soft. September alone saw a 7,300-job pullback spanning Leisure and Hospitality, Professional and Business Services, and Trade, Transportation and Utilities \u2014 the second-largest September decline for the metro since 1990 \u2014 even as healthcare hiring and record export volumes through Port Houston point to uneven strength beneath the headline contraction.", "implications": "Houston's economic signal this month is mixed by design: a falling unemployment rate alongside shrinking payrolls suggests labor-force withdrawal is masking real softness in consumer-facing sectors, a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline rate as a simple health check. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh sector-specific momentum \u2014 healthcare and export-linked trade look resilient, while hospitality, business services, and logistics show broad-based contraction \u2014 giving that sector-level picture more weight than the aggregate rate alone. Consider reviewing sector-level payroll and trade data before drawing conclusions from the metro's unemployment rate in isolation.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Houston's unemployment rate and payroll counts are moving in opposite directions; watch whether the Dallas Fed's November update shows labor-force re-entry or continued contraction, which would clarify whether September's decline was a blip or a trend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Port Houston's record containerized trade pace and 26.2% export growth are propping up the metro's trade sector. A pullback in global energy demand or shipping volumes would remove one of the few current sources of positive momentum."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Leisure and Hospitality absorbed the single largest September job loss in the metro. Watch whether holiday-season demand reverses the trend or whether consumer spending pressure, consistent with flat real wages, deepens it."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas labor-force growth has nearly stalled statewide, adding just 3,600 net participants over the past year. Houston-specific labor-force data in coming months will show whether the metro is following the state's demographic slowdown or diverging from it."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24145.0, "metro_p50": 31158.0, "metro_p75": 35377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22790.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30569.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37466.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55762.75, "metro_p50": 76476.0, "metro_p75": 88164.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28828.0, "metro_p50": 31316.0, "metro_p75": 33538.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30752.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 70643.2, "metro_p75": 75920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33027.0, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26517.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33717.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41104.4, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 69524.0, "metro_p75": 74511.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82607.0, "metro_p50": 98712.0, "metro_p75": 107214.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112902.0, "metro_p50": 152742.0, "metro_p75": 168270.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 135200.0, "metro_p75": 155246.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60879.25, "metro_p50": 72701.0, "metro_p75": 81497.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76240.25, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 102556.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58184.0, "metro_p50": 75314.4, "metro_p75": 85280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45606.5, "metro_p50": 62104.4, "metro_p75": 73982.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70066.5, "metro_p50": 83815.2, "metro_p75": 102301.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31960.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 64000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65291.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48039.25, "metro_p50": 73433.8, "metro_p75": 93000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82129.0, "metro_p50": 98513.6, "metro_p75": 110694.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 87332.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 97459.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38336.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 68582.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 117426.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 86987.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60629.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30523.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66543.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:17.497667+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}