{"schema_version": 1, "id": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 193, "label": "Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA", "slug": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:32.295523+00:00", "headline": "Houston's jobless rate falls even as exports and labor force both surge.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment eased to 5.0 percent in August from 5.1 percent as oil and liquid fuels exports climbed 26.2 percent through H1 2026, even as the region's rate stayed above the state's 4.6 percent due to rapid labor-force growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Houston metro unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Down from 5.1% in July; vs 4.6% Texas, 4.3% U.S."}, {"label": "Oil & liquid fuels export growth", "value": "26.2%", "context": "H1 2026 year-over-year, Houston.org"}, {"label": "Initial unemployment claims (4-wk avg)", "value": "3,883", "context": "Down from late-May peak of 4,520"}, {"label": "H1 2026 layoff-affected workers", "value": "2,697", "context": "Across ~20 companies, per Workforce Solutions Gulf Coast"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment gap with Texas reflects growth, not weakness.", "body": "Houston's 5.0 percent rate versus the state's 4.6 percent stems largely from faster labor-force expansion rather than job losses, with claims near a 2026 low. Reading the gap as a demand problem risks mischaracterizing a metro still outpacing national job growth roughly sixfold."}, {"headline": "Construction momentum is shifting form, not stopping.", "body": "Growth is moving from large infrastructure projects toward building and specialty trade contractors, even as electrician and HVAC advertised pay climb moderately to significantly. That shift signals a maturing build cycle rather than a slowdown in underlying activity."}, {"headline": "Export surge is the metro's clearest bright spot.", "body": "Oil and liquid fuels exports rose 26.2 percent through H1 2026, a trade signal largely decoupled from the national payroll slowdown. Commerce leaders citing momentum indicators should anchor on trade and energy data alongside employment counts."}, {"headline": "Administrative support growth traces back to energy staffing.", "body": "Employment-services gains concentrated in temporary placements appear tied to stronger energy-sector activity rather than broad office-sector expansion. That nuance matters for distinguishing cyclical temp demand from structural office-economy growth when assessing local business climate."}], "local_conditions": "Houston metro unemployment eased to 5.0 percent in August from 5.1 percent in July, still running above the Texas (4.6 percent) and U.S. (4.3 percent) rates because the region's labor force is expanding faster than employers can absorb new entrants. Construction and administrative support jointly drove over half of year-over-year job gains, with export-linked oil and liquid fuels activity up 26.2 percent through the first half of 2026, signaling that energy-adjacent trade flows remain the metro's dominant momentum source even as broader construction hiring cools from last year's pace.", "implications": "Houston's elevated but declining unemployment rate alongside strong export growth points to an economy absorbing labor-force growth rather than contracting demand, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read local business conditions versus the softer national payroll picture. Public-sector stability and low layoff activity (initial claims near a 2026 low) suggest the metro is better insulated than national trends implied by September's weak 29,000-job national print and falling real wages. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders may want to frame Houston's momentum relative to its own labor-force growth rate rather than unemployment-rate comparisons alone, since the latter can understate underlying demand strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Initial claims have fallen steadily from a late-May peak of 4,520 to roughly 3,883 in early September; a reversal would be an early signal that Houston's labor absorption is losing pace."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Nearly 20 companies reported layoffs affecting 2,697 workers in H1 2026 even as the metro added jobs overall \u2014 a reminder that aggregate growth can mask pockets of contraction worth tracking by sector."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0 percent against 3.4 percent inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021; watch whether Houston's historically stronger wage gains (3.9 percent statewide) hold or converge toward the national trend."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas manufacturing activity accelerated sharply in September on production and new orders; a continuation would reinforce Houston's reshoring and industrial-production narrative beyond energy exports alone."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24440.0, "metro_p50": 31159.0, "metro_p75": 35531.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22790.0, "metro_p50": 26680.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30367.5, "metro_p50": 34535.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55380.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 89187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28340.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30629.0, "metro_p50": 34930.0, "metro_p75": 38460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55917.0, "metro_p50": 69937.6, "metro_p75": 74880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26710.5, "metro_p50": 29584.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32969.5, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 46450.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 68974.0, "metro_p75": 74880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82402.0, "metro_p50": 98031.6, "metro_p75": 105619.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114119.5, "metro_p50": 152797.0, "metro_p75": 168415.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99230.0, "metro_p50": 136933.0, "metro_p75": 156071.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60832.0, "metro_p50": 72701.0, "metro_p75": 81498.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76100.0, "metro_p50": 97319.4, "metro_p75": 102556.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 75839.6, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44761.0, "metro_p50": 60725.0, "metro_p75": 71602.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 90070.0, "metro_p75": 102301.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 59940.0, "metro_p75": 64000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 94000.0, "metro_p75": 113240.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40000.0, "metro_p50": 62040.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82656.0, "metro_p50": 98430.0, "metro_p75": 110536.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 86277.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 98584.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38818.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 67500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 117965.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 91964.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80145.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60169.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30516.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67005.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:31.318303+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/houston-sugar-land-baytown-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}