{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 312, "label": "Hot Springs, AR MSA", "slug": "hot-springs-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:44:36.031807+00:00", "headline": "Hot Springs jobless rate falls as professional pay slides.", "headline_summary": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment dropped to 3.8% from 4.2% a year ago even as nonfarm payrolls slipped to 40,400, while local pay for Registered Nurses and Software Engineers fell against rising national figures for the same roles.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.2% a year ago; vs 4.2% nationally"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payrolls", "value": "40,400 jobs", "context": "Down from 40,700 a year ago"}, {"label": "Garland County avg weekly wage", "value": "$946", "context": "vs $1,569 U.S. average (Q4 2025)"}, {"label": "Arkansas statewide unemployment", "value": "3.9%", "context": "8th straight monthly decline; record labor force"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hot Springs unemployment gain outpaces the state and nation.", "body": "A drop to 3.8% from 4.2% year-over-year is a steeper improvement than Arkansas's statewide decline to 3.9% or the national rate of 4.2%, even though the metro's total job count edged down slightly. That combination points to a shrinking labor pool more than a surge in new positions."}, {"headline": "Professional pay is sliding locally while rising nationally.", "body": "Registered Nurse, Software Engineer, and HVAC Technician pay all moved down in the metro this month while their national counterparts rose, a divergence that may signal the area is becoming less competitive for mobile professional and technical talent. Commerce leaders recruiting outside investment or relocating employers should weigh this gap when pitching the metro's cost advantages."}, {"headline": "Trades and logistics pay shows the clearest local momentum.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver ($81,640, up moderate) and Construction Laborer (up moderate) advertised pay is rising locally even as several white-collar roles decline, consistent with continued activity in transportation and construction-adjacent sectors. That pattern aligns with the Work Ready Community certification's trades-oriented training pipeline."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation gap likely squeezes household spending power.", "body": "National real wage growth near -0.1% year-over-year and a 3.5% CPI gain against 1.5% median weekly earnings growth suggest Hot Springs consumers are losing purchasing power even in a tightening local labor market. That dynamic matters for retail and hospitality demand forecasts more than for any single pay figure."}], "local_conditions": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment eased to 3.8% in September from 4.2% a year earlier, a sharper improvement than the statewide trend and a reversal from January's 5.2% peak, even as nonfarm payrolls slipped slightly to 40,400 from 40,700 a year ago. Garland County's average weekly wage of $946 remains well below the national average of $1,569, and local advertised pay for several office and professional roles \u2014 Administrative Assistant (down significant), Software Engineer (down significant), Registered Nurse (down moderate) \u2014 is trending opposite the national direction, suggesting wage pressure is concentrated unevenly across the metro's sector mix.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside flat-to-shrinking payrolls points to a tightening labor pool, which commerce leaders should read as a signal that local workforce capacity is a growing constraint on expansion plans. Divergence between locally declining professional-role pay (Software Engineer, Registered Nurse, HVAC Technician) and nationally rising pay for the same roles may suggest the metro is losing competitiveness for mobile, higher-skill talent even as skilled trades and logistics pay (CDL Truck Driver up moderate, Construction Laborer up moderate) strengthens. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planning bodies should evaluate whether Garland County's Work Ready Community certification and ACT National Career Readiness Certificate pipeline are matched to the trades and logistics demand actually showing wage momentum, with particular attention to the professional roles where local pay is losing ground.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Hot Springs payrolls recover toward the 40,700 level of a year ago or continue drifting lower alongside falling unemployment will clarify whether the metro is tightening due to demand or due to labor-force exit."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued divergence between local and national pay for Registered Nurse and Software Engineer roles could affect the metro's ability to attract employers in healthcare and technology-adjacent sectors; watch next month's advertised pay direction for confirmation."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "State-level wage withholding grew 5.7% year-over-year with revenue collections beating forecast, a fiscal signal worth tracking locally for whether Garland County sales and property tax receipts show similar strength."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Job ads for trades, logistics, and warehouse roles \u2014 a signal of hiring demand where each ad often covers several openings \u2014 bear watching for whether momentum in CDL and construction pay translates into broader local job ad volume over the next two months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27601.6, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32153.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64763.5, "metro_p50": 81640.0, "metro_p75": 89807.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29322.5, "metro_p50": 31443.6, "metro_p75": 32079.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 30466.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 69000.0, "metro_p75": 72404.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31732.0, "metro_p50": 36305.0, "metro_p75": 39225.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 27155.6, "metro_p75": 28210.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30538.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31189.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 57200.0, "metro_p75": 64160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80132.0, "metro_p50": 93333.0, "metro_p75": 101649.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99663.0, "metro_p50": 110856.6, "metro_p75": 122948.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91487.0, "metro_p50": 125778.0, "metro_p75": 138330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 52326.8, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72671.0, "metro_p50": 88941.0, "metro_p75": 99818.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48855.0, "metro_p50": 68872.8, "metro_p75": 77744.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44697.0, "metro_p50": 61187.2, "metro_p75": 75103.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60059.0, "metro_p50": 76001.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 57742.0, "metro_p75": 61332.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29442.0, "metro_p50": 44000.0, "metro_p75": 48500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46547.5, "metro_p50": 60781.2, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75854.0, "metro_p50": 92896.0, "metro_p75": 103891.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70484.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66441.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46488.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 48965.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59732.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28186.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 40123.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Talk Business & Politics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment rate and payroll figures for September 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cew/", "statement": "Garland County average weekly wage vs. national average, Q4 2025"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas statewide unemployment rate held at 3.9% in September, record labor force"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/", "statement": "National real wage growth near -0.1% year-over-year amid 3.5% CPI gain"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas wage withholding grew 5.7% year-over-year, revenue beat forecast"}, {"source_name": "WorkReady Communities", "source_url": null, "statement": "Garland County Work Ready Community certification, June 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:13.061588+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}