{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 312, "label": "Hot Springs, AR MSA", "slug": "hot-springs-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:50.631466+00:00", "headline": "Hot Springs unemployment stays highest in Arkansas, wages trail state", "headline_summary": "Hot Springs' 4.2% unemployment rate remains above Arkansas's 3.9% and the national 4.1%, while Garland County's $946 average weekly wage lags the state's $1,291 figure by roughly 27%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 3.9% Arkansas, 4.1% U.S.; highest among AR metros"}, {"label": "Garland County avg. weekly wage", "value": "$946", "context": "vs $1,291 Arkansas Q1 2026 average"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4% inflation", "context": "Lowest annual wage gain since May 2021"}, {"label": "Arkansas labor force participation", "value": "59.1%", "context": "Up YoY but down 0.1pt in August, possible plateau"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hot Springs carries Arkansas's highest metro unemployment rate.", "body": "The 4.2% September rate sits above both the 3.9% state figure and the 4.1% national rate, a gap that has held since at least March. Persistent, not sudden, divergence points to structural metro characteristics -- likely a hospitality- and retail-heavy employment base -- rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"headline": "Wage growth lags the state even as employment holds steady.", "body": "Garland County's $946 average weekly wage is roughly 27% below the statewide $1,291 figure, a gap that has not meaningfully closed even as local payrolls add jobs. That divergence is consistent with a local economy generating employment volume faster than it generates wage growth, a pattern distinct from faster-wage counties like Benton."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap adds a layer of pressure atop local softness.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% annually against 3.4% inflation, meaning real wages are no longer rising nationally for the first time in roughly two years. A metro already carrying below-state wages has less cushion if that national dynamic persists into local pay trends."}, {"headline": "Sector winners locally echo the national blue-collar tilt.", "body": "Advertised pay for construction laborer and CDL truck driver roles rose moderately in the metro even as several white-collar categories -- software engineer, account manager, administrative assistant -- declined significantly. That split mirrors the national pattern of healthcare, construction, and manufacturing outpacing office-based occupations, suggesting the metro's goods- and trades-adjacent sectors are the current source of local economic momentum."}], "local_conditions": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September, keeping the metro above both the Arkansas rate of 3.9% and the national rate of 4.1%, and the highest among Arkansas metros for much of 2026. Garland County's average weekly wage of $946 trails the state's $1,291 first-quarter figure by a wide margin, suggesting the metro's growth in education, health services, and hospitality employment has not translated into the wage momentum seen in faster-growing Arkansas counties like Benton.", "implications": "Persistent unemployment above state and national lines signals a labor market with more available workers than many peer metros, a condition that typically favors employers seeking to staff new or expanding operations but raises questions about consumer spending capacity locally given the Garland County wage lag. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation incentives should treat the metro's labor availability as a genuine asset, while government economists may want to examine whether the wage gap reflects occupational mix (tourism and hospitality-heavy) rather than weaker demand. Consider evaluating whether local workforce development investment is better aimed at wage progression in existing growth sectors than at pure labor force expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Hot Springs' unemployment rate has led all Arkansas metros for most of 2026; watch whether the October release shows any convergence toward the state's 3.9% or further widening, which would sharpen questions about the metro's relative competitiveness for new investment."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National real wages turning flat-to-negative against 3.4% inflation is a trend worth tracking locally, since Garland County's wages already run well below the state average and have less room to absorb a purchasing-power squeeze."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Arkansas labor force participation ticked down 0.1 point in August after two years of gains, a potential ceiling signal; local participation trends in the next release will show whether Hot Springs is tracking that plateau or still has room to draw workers in."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National government payrolls have shed workers for a full year (down 216,000), while Arkansas state data shows government as the largest August job gainer; divergence between national public-sector contraction and state/local public-sector stability is a signal worth monitoring for commerce leaders assessing public-sector purchasing power in the metro."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27578.2, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22932.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29986.5, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 37918.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62051.75, "metro_p50": 82923.4, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27077.5, "metro_p50": 31355.8, "metro_p75": 32105.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 33887.2, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 67109.0, "metro_p75": 72400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 36067.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33756.0, "metro_p50": 35549.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 26979.8, "metro_p75": 27015.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30793.0, "metro_p50": 34768.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 59729.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80298.0, "metro_p50": 97080.4, "metro_p75": 108749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99663.0, "metro_p50": 110856.6, "metro_p75": 122948.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91487.0, "metro_p50": 125778.0, "metro_p75": 136713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 61200.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 88958.2, "metro_p75": 97922.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48495.0, "metro_p50": 70653.0, "metro_p75": 77744.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44520.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 73742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60450.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 76001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37502.0, "metro_p50": 54791.2, "metro_p75": 61360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29442.0, "metro_p50": 44000.0, "metro_p75": 48500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46082.5, "metro_p50": 54828.0, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75529.0, "metro_p50": 91374.2, "metro_p75": 101771.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 69910.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40022.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66441.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46488.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 58483.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28398.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 77606.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:28.376167+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}