{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hot-springs-ar-msa/finance/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 312, "label": "Hot Springs, AR MSA", "slug": "hot-springs-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "finance", "slug": "finance", "label": "Finance"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T05:24:51.202328+00:00", "headline": "Hot Springs finance pay for Tax and Credit roles surges while jobs stay flat.", "headline_summary": "Hot Springs unemployment fell to 3.8% even as payrolls dipped to 40,400, while advertised pay for Tax Specialist and Credit Analyst roles jumped sharply against a national CFO turnover rate of 18.3%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.2% a year ago; national rate 4.1%"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payrolls", "value": "40,400 jobs", "context": "Down from 40,700 a year earlier"}, {"label": "CFO turnover rate (national)", "value": "18.3%", "context": "Highest since pandemic, per Crist|Kolder"}, {"label": "Garland County avg weekly wage", "value": "$946", "context": "vs. $1,569 national average, Q4 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tax Specialist pay is surging locally but still trails the nation badly.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Tax Specialist jumped to $33,280, a significant increase, yet remains less than half the $69,556 national median. This gap signals acute local scarcity for tax talent heading into year-end close and 1099/W-2 preparation season."}, {"headline": "Credit Analyst demand is repricing faster than the broader finance function.", "body": "Credit Analyst pay rose to $64,640 locally, a significant jump that narrows the gap with the $71,397 national median. Rising consumer and commercial credit scrutiny appears to be pulling this role's pay toward national levels faster than Controller or Senior Accountant roles."}, {"headline": "Flat payrolls with falling unemployment point to a supply squeeze.", "body": "Metro nonfarm employment dipped from 40,700 to 40,400 even as unemployment fell to 3.8%, consistent with workers exiting the labor force or relocating. Finance leaders should treat local candidate pipelines as structurally thinner, independent of headcount plans."}, {"headline": "FP&A Manager pay is stable locally while national pay climbs.", "body": "Metro FP&A Manager pay held at $115,659 while the national median rose to $130,000, a moderate increase. Static local pay against rising national demand for planning talent may create retention exposure for Hot Springs employers competing against remote-friendly FP&A roles."}], "local_conditions": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment eased to 3.8% in September from 4.2% a year earlier, even as nonfarm payrolls slipped slightly to 40,400 jobs from 40,700, suggesting a tighter labor pool is chasing a flat job count. Garland County's average weekly wage of $946 remains well below the $1,569 national figure, and with financial activities posting the metro's highest earnings among local sectors, Finance roles are competing against a wage floor that trails national benchmarks by roughly 40%.", "implications": "A shrinking unemployed pool against flat metro payrolls signals that filling Controller and FP&A Manager vacancies will take longer and cost more relative to national norms, even though advertised Controller pay locally ($111,898) sits only modestly below the national median. National CFO turnover at 18.3% and finance talent shortages reported by 85% of CFOs compound local scarcity, raising the risk that Hot Springs employers lose finance talent to remote or regional opportunities offering national-level pay. Consider reviewing whether Controller and FP&A compensation bands have kept pace with the narrowing metro-to-national gap before the next recruiting cycle.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the metro's falling unemployment rate (3.8% in September, down from a 5.2% January peak) continues alongside flat payrolls \u2014 a pattern consistent with labor force exits. If payrolls don't recover by year-end, finance roles may face longer time-to-fill."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National finance talent shortages (85% of CFOs affected per MAVI) and 18.3% CFO turnover create upward pressure on senior finance pay nationally; watch whether Hot Springs Controller and FP&A pay, currently near national parity, begins to lag as remote competition intensifies."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Arkansas wage withholding grew 5.7% year-over-year in October, signaling continued payroll tax base strength. Track whether this translates into higher Q4 close-cycle compensation accruals for Garland County employers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "70% of finance and accounting leaders nationally are shifting toward contract talent in H2 2026. Watch whether Hot Springs employers follow this pattern given the metro's below-national wage base, which could make contract staffing comparatively more attractive here."}], "roles": [{"role": "Controller", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80139.25, "metro_p50": 111898.4, "metro_p75": 116965.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 115420.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Senior Accountant", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74613.0, "metro_p50": 81560.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 87731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72671.0, "metro_p50": 88941.0, "metro_p75": 99818.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Billing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 33292.0, "metro_p50": 37562.2, "metro_p75": 41975.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 49000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Tax Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 41660.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 69556.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Credit Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47936.0, "metro_p50": 64640.0, "metro_p75": 64713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71397.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "FP&A Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 85000.0, "metro_p50": 115659.0, "metro_p75": 127542.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 130000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Talk Business & Politics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Hot Springs MSA unemployment rate and payroll figures for September 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Garland County average weekly wage vs. national average"}, {"source_name": "Crist|Kolder Associates", "source_url": null, "statement": "CFO turnover rate of 18.3% in 2026, highest since pandemic"}, {"source_name": "MAVI", "source_url": null, "statement": "85% of CFOs report finance talent shortages affecting operations"}, {"source_name": "Robert Half / AFP FP&A Forum", "source_url": null, "statement": "70% of finance and accounting leaders increasing contract talent use"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas wage withholding grew 5.7% year-over-year in October"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "hot-springs-ar-msa/finance/2026-10.html", "pdf": "hot-springs-ar-msa/finance/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:11.505501+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/finance/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hot-springs-ar-msa/finance/2026-10.pdf"}