{"schema_version": 1, "id": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 230, "label": "Honolulu, HI MSA", "slug": "honolulu-hi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:43:46.787523+00:00", "headline": "Honolulu's labor force grows faster than its job count.", "headline_summary": "Honolulu County unemployment hit 3.0% in September \u2014 a two-year high \u2014 as the labor force grew 1.1% against only 0.4% employment growth, while construction permits fell 34% even as payrolls rose 3.3%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Honolulu County unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%", "context": "Up from 2.9% in Aug.; highest in 2 years"}, {"label": "Labor force vs. employment growth", "value": "1.1% vs 0.4%", "context": "Sept 2025\u2013Sept 2026, year-over-year"}, {"label": "Construction permits vs. payrolls", "value": "-34% vs +3.3%", "context": "Permits down, payrolls up, Jan\u2013Jul 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide nonfarm job growth", "value": "+400 jobs (+0.1%)", "context": "Year-over-year, Hawaii statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force growth is outpacing job creation across the metro.", "body": "Honolulu's labor force expanded 1.1% year-over-year against just 0.4% employment growth, pushing unemployment to a two-year high of 3.0% even as job losses remain limited. This pattern is consistent with cost-of-living pressure drawing more residents into the job search while layoffs stay limited."}, {"headline": "Aviation consolidation keeps surfacing in WARN filings and headlines alike.", "body": "Alaska Air Group's late-October cuts mark the sixth management reduction round in Hawaii since the Hawaiian Airlines merger, bringing cumulative nonunion WARN notices to 479. The steady cadence suggests continued post-merger restructuring, worth tracking for its ripple effects on professional services demand tied to the airline sector."}, {"headline": "Construction's growth numbers mask a weaker investment signal.", "body": "Construction payrolls rose 3.3% year-over-year through July, yet private building permits dropped 34% over the same stretch. Current job counts likely reflect projects already underway and carried forward from earlier commitments, a gap that should temper optimism about the sector's forward trajectory."}, {"headline": "Software engineering pay is rising sharply while most other roles hold flat.", "body": "Metro software engineer advertised pay rose to a median of $165,069, outpacing the national figure and standing out against a broader metro wage picture where most tracked occupations show stable advertised pay. The divergence points to a narrow, high-value segment of economic activity amid otherwise modest wage movement."}], "local_conditions": "Honolulu County's unemployment rate climbed to 3.0% in September, up from 2.9% in August and the highest in two years, as the labor force grew 1.1% year-over-year while employment rose only 0.4% \u2014 a gap consistent with workers re-entering the job search amid rising cost-of-living pressure, with job availability holding steady. Aviation continued to account for a disproportionate share of layoff activity, with Alaska Air Group cutting roughly 48 Hawaii management positions in late October \u2014 the sixth round of post-merger reductions since September 2024 \u2014 while leisure and hospitality added 1,000 jobs in the same period, underscoring a metro economy where tourism-adjacent sectors are pulling in different directions simultaneously.", "implications": "Rising labor force participation alongside flat employment growth signals more residents are seeking work than the metro economy is currently absorbing, a dynamic commerce leaders should read as softening demand in a labor pool that remains deep. Construction payrolls grew 3.3% year-over-year even as private building permits fell 34%, suggesting current activity reflects a project backlog carrying forward existing commitments \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone gauging the durability of the metro's construction-driven momentum. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders should track permit activity alongside payroll counts before characterizing construction as an expansion story.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "October county-level unemployment figures were delayed by the federal shutdown, leaving a one-month blind spot. Watch for a catch-up release that may show whether September's uptick continued or stabilized."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Aviation-sector WARN activity has recurred every few months since the 2024 merger; a seventh round within the next 60 days would confirm this as an ongoing structural adjustment, relevant for anyone assessing Oahu's professional-services demand."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Private building permit activity, down 34% year-over-year, is a leading signal for construction employment. A continued decline over the next two quarters would suggest the sector's current payroll strength is temporary."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Kauai's unemployment spike to 5.1% following Hurricane Lowell offers a localized test case for how quickly tourism-dependent county economies recover disruption \u2014 a bellwether for storm-exposed business districts statewide."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40737.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30915.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46130.0, "metro_p50": 58335.0, "metro_p75": 62865.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32732.0, "metro_p50": 37595.2, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38304.0, "metro_p50": 48290.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65339.0, "metro_p50": 79349.0, "metro_p75": 90480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36322.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33515.0, "metro_p50": 44058.8, "metro_p75": 47510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37483.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 53300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38847.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 82950.0, "metro_p75": 89440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95680.0, "metro_p50": 119503.0, "metro_p75": 131891.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 122330.25, "metro_p50": 165068.6, "metro_p75": 185369.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101450.0, "metro_p50": 134401.2, "metro_p75": 143439.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55551.25, "metro_p50": 67787.4, "metro_p75": 72516.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76813.0, "metro_p50": 94791.0, "metro_p75": 102417.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40093.0, "metro_p50": 62153.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47319.0, "metro_p50": 49020.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63516.75, "metro_p50": 104892.4, "metro_p75": 138388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52949.0, "metro_p50": 64571.0, "metro_p75": 67310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69830.5, "metro_p50": 96141.6, "metro_p75": 108123.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 95000.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83843.25, "metro_p50": 106080.0, "metro_p75": 115375.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 77500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 112080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43415.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 127006.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 72617.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81752.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37950.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 75206.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Honolulu County unemployment rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Labor force grew 1.1% while employment grew 0.4% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Honolulu Star-Advertiser", "source_url": null, "statement": "Alaska Air Group cut ~48 Hawaii management positions in sixth post-merger round"}, {"source_name": "Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction payrolls rose 3.3% while private building permits fell 34%"}, {"source_name": "Honolulu Star-Advertiser", "source_url": null, "statement": "479 cumulative WARN notices issued to nonunion Hawaiian Airlines employees since 2024 merger"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Hawaii DLIR", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kauai County unemployment spiked to 5.1% following Hurricane Lowell"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:10.801255+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}