{"schema_version": 1, "id": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 230, "label": "Honolulu, HI MSA", "slug": "honolulu-hi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:45.280935+00:00", "headline": "Honolulu jobless rate falls, but growth is still missing", "headline_summary": "Honolulu's unemployment rate dropped to 2.5 percent in September even as statewide payroll growth stayed flat at 0.2 percent year-over-year and federal government jobs fell 8.7 percent.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Honolulu unemployment rate", "value": "2.5%", "context": "Down from 2.7% in August; vs 4.1% nationally"}, {"label": "Statewide payroll growth", "value": "0.2%", "context": "Year-over-year through July 2026, nearly flat"}, {"label": "Federal government employment", "value": "-8.7%", "context": "Year-over-year decline statewide"}, {"label": "Honolulu CPI forecast vs wage growth", "value": "3.8% vs 1.7%", "context": "Inflation outpacing statewide avg weekly wage gain"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a participation story, not a growth story.", "body": "Honolulu's 2.5 percent rate looks strong next to the 4.1 percent national figure, but statewide payrolls grew just 0.2 percent year-over-year while the labor force hit a seven-year high. That combination suggests more residents re-entering the workforce rather than employers adding meaningfully more positions."}, {"headline": "Federal contraction is the metro's clearest structural headwind.", "body": "Hawaii's federal government workforce fell 8.7 percent over the year, a sizable drag given Honolulu's historic reliance on federal payrolls tied to defense and administration. This decline is being only partially offset by private-sector gains in construction and health care, leaving overall government employment down 2.4 percent."}, {"headline": "Real wages are losing ground to local inflation.", "body": "Statewide average weekly wages rose just 1.7 percent year-over-year while Honolulu CPI is forecast near 3.8 percent for 2026, a gap that erodes local purchasing power even where nominal pay holds steady. Consumer-facing sectors sensitive to discretionary spending may feel this compression before it shows up in employment data."}, {"headline": "Construction activity is outpacing its own pipeline.", "body": "Construction payrolls grew 3.3 percent year-over-year even as private building permit values fell 34 percent over the same period, meaning current job counts reflect legacy projects rather than fresh commitments. That divergence is worth watching as a leading indicator of where construction employment heads in 2027."}], "local_conditions": "Honolulu's unemployment rate eased to 2.5 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August, even as the statewide labor force reached its highest level since December 2019 \u2014 a sign more residents are entering the job search rather than sitting out, even as job growth stays soft. Federal government payrolls continue contracting sharply (down 8.7 percent statewide over the year) while construction and health care gains offset the losses, producing a metro economy that reads as stable on paper but structurally uneven underneath.", "implications": "Flat nonfarm payroll growth of just 0.2 percent year-over-year alongside a falling unemployment rate suggests labor-force participation, not job creation, is driving the headline improvement \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone reading Honolulu's low jobless rate as a signal of business expansion. Federal contraction paired with Honolulu CPI running near 3.8 percent against a statewide average weekly wage gain of just 1.7 percent points to real purchasing-power compression that could temper consumer-facing sectors even as construction and healthcare stay resilient. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders track sector-specific momentum rather than the headline unemployment rate when assessing local business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction employment has stayed strong on existing projects, but the 34 percent drop in private building permit value suggests the pipeline is thinning. A slowdown in construction payrolls over the next two quarters would be the first visible sign."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Federal payroll reductions have been a consistent drag all year and show no sign of reversing. Continued erosion here will keep testing whether private-sector gains in health care and hospitality can fully offset public-sector job losses."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Labor force participation climbed to its highest level since 2019, a genuinely positive signal if it persists. Whether these new entrants find employment or swell the unemployment count will determine if September's improved jobless rate holds."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wage growth of 1.7 percent against inflation near 3.8 percent is a widening gap that compresses real local purchasing power. Retail and hospitality-adjacent sectors that depend on discretionary household spending are most exposed if the gap persists into the holiday season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40820.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30420.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34775.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47139.0, "metro_p50": 58324.2, "metro_p75": 62633.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32531.0, "metro_p50": 35377.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39138.0, "metro_p50": 49293.8, "metro_p75": 53904.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67758.0, "metro_p50": 78331.2, "metro_p75": 90480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32815.0, "metro_p50": 34372.6, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36322.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33515.0, "metro_p50": 45052.0, "metro_p75": 47798.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 51345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38434.0, "metro_p50": 44959.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67345.5, "metro_p50": 82950.0, "metro_p75": 89440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94914.0, "metro_p50": 119503.0, "metro_p75": 132165.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 123346.0, "metro_p50": 164854.4, "metro_p75": 184300.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100691.0, "metro_p50": 134394.0, "metro_p75": 144599.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 68976.0, "metro_p75": 72516.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77405.5, "metro_p50": 96039.0, "metro_p75": 103113.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40093.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 62154.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47319.0, "metro_p50": 49019.0, "metro_p75": 54335.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66566.0, "metro_p50": 138388.0, "metro_p75": 138388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52292.0, "metro_p50": 64571.0, "metro_p75": 68000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70150.0, "metro_p50": 92550.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91250.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 103750.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82656.0, "metro_p50": 105286.0, "metro_p75": 114699.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 69472.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 108952.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 127360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 71147.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 79066.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37502.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 75599.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:27.506737+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/honolulu-hi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}