{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 296, "label": "HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:18.887102+00:00", "headline": "Big Island labor costs rise as wages lag state average.", "headline_summary": "Hawaii County's average weekly wage of $1,190 trails Maui's $1,250 and Kauai's $1,220, even as the statewide minimum wage climbs to $16.00 and unemployment eases to 2.5%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hawaii County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,190", "context": "Lowest among HI counties, vs $1,250 Maui/Kalawao"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployment rate", "value": "2.5%", "context": "Down from 2.7% Aug; up from 2.2% Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Hawaii minimum wage", "value": "$16.00/hr", "context": "Up $2.00 from 2025; $18.00 set for Jan 2028"}, {"label": "Tipped wage combined-earnings floor", "value": "$23.00/hr", "context": "Base $15.25 + $0.75 credit, compliance-sensitive"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hawaii County wages trail the state, not just the mainland.", "body": "At $1,190 average weekly wage versus $1,250 in Maui/Kalawao and $1,220 in Kauai, Big Island operators compete for the same shrinking labor pool from a weaker pay position. This may widen turnover risk precisely where margins are already thinnest."}, {"headline": "Tight unemployment masks a shrinking, not growing, workforce.", "body": "September's drop to 2.5% unemployment follows a run-up to 2.7% in August, the highest since late 2024 \u2014 consistent with workers leaving the labor force rather than renewed hiring strength. Treat low headline unemployment as a caution signal on candidate availability, not a sign of labor market slack."}, {"headline": "Tip-credit compliance risk is rising alongside wage pressure.", "body": "Tipped employees must clear $23.00/hour combined to sustain the $15.25 tipped wage with $0.75 credit, and Act 115's $500 minimum civil penalty raises the cost of tracking errors. Current conditions suggest revisiting tip-reporting systems before the next enforcement cycle, not after."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and light construction are pulling candidates from hospitality.", "body": "Hawaii County's strongest Q1 2026 job gains came in Health Care & Social Assistance (+3.7%) and Natural Resources/Construction (+5.0%), both competing directly for the same hourly labor pool restaurants draw from. Advertised pay for BOH and entry FOH roles may need to track these sectors more closely than national restaurant benchmarks."}], "local_conditions": "Hawaii County's labor market remains structurally tight \u2014 September's statewide unemployment rate of 2.5%, down from 2.7% in August, reflects a shrinking labor pool rather than robust hiring, with Hawaii County forecast to post a net job decline for 2026 after tourism-sector softness late last year. The $16.00 statewide minimum wage effective January 2026 lands hardest here, where the average weekly wage of $1,190 is the lowest among Hawaii's counties, compressing the gap between entry-level and skilled roles faster than operators can adjust pricing or formats.", "implications": "Compressed wage floors against the state's lowest average weekly wage mean Big Island operators face some of the tightest labor-cost-to-revenue ratios in Hawaii, with less room to absorb the $16.00 minimum through attrition or hour reductions than Oahu or Maui counterparts. Persistent outmigration to lower-cost states \u2014 already reported by operators statewide \u2014 suggests retention economics matter more here than recruiting spend, since replacing a worker who leaves for the mainland is costlier than retaining one in place. Consider reviewing whether current shift-differential or tenure-based pay structures are strong enough to compete with the draw of lower cost-of-living states, rather than relying solely on base-wage compliance with the new minimum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Hawaii County's forecast net job decline for 2026 will test whether restaurant job gains statewide (+1,600 in food services per DBEDT) extend to the Big Island or remain concentrated in Oahu. A county-level pullback would further tighten an already thin labor pool."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Outmigration reports from operators like Ruby Tuesday Hawaii suggest workers are leaving for lower-cost states faster than new entrants arrive. Watch whether retention-focused pay adjustments appear in advertised listings over the next two months as a response."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Act 115 civil penalty enforcement is new in 2026 and untested at scale. Expect increased scrutiny of tip-credit documentation as the state builds enforcement capacity, particularly for operators running thin administrative teams."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide unemployment has risen five times since January's 2.2% low despite only modest payroll growth (+9,500 jobs year over year, +1.5%). If this pattern continues in Hawaii County, softer labor demand could finally ease hiring pressure \u2014 a signal worth tracking against local job-opening counts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39979.0, "metro_p50": 47562.0, "metro_p75": 56368.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63490.0, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26851.0, "metro_p50": 29647.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 46742.0, "metro_p75": 51643.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72717.0, "metro_p75": 92131.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32024.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37001.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31263.0, "metro_p50": 36151.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:22.405417+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}