{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 296, "label": "HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:40:23.252519+00:00", "headline": "Hawaii's outer islands cool as labor supply outpaces job growth.", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro Hawaii unemployment climbed to a two-year high with Hawaii County at 3.5% and Kauai spiking to 5.1% after Hurricane Lowell, even as construction and healthcare kept adding jobs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kauai County unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Up from 2.5% in August after Hurricane Lowell"}, {"label": "Hawaii County unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Highest among nonmetro counties, up from 3.4%"}, {"label": "Labor force vs. employment growth", "value": "1.1% vs 0.4%", "context": "Statewide YoY, Sept 2025\u2013Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Government contracts, H1 2026", "value": "-25.4%", "context": "Year-over-year decline statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Hawaii's labor supply is outrunning job creation.", "body": "Labor force grew 1.1% year-over-year against just 0.4% employment growth statewide, a gap wide enough to push unemployment to a two-year high even without a demand shock. For commerce leaders, this points toward easing labor availability constraints after a prolonged tight stretch."}, {"headline": "Kauai's hurricane spike is a shock within a longer trend.", "body": "Kauai's jobless rate jumped from 2.5% to 5.1% in a single month after Hurricane Lowell, concentrated in tourism-exposed employment. Government economists should treat this as a storm-driven disruption distinct from the slower structural softening visible in Honolulu, Hawaii, and Maui counties."}, {"headline": "Construction and healthcare remain the nonmetro economy's stabilizers.", "body": "Both sectors continued adding jobs even as countywide unemployment rose across the board, consistent with sustained demand for skilled trades and care work tied to the islands' aging population and ongoing building activity. Advertised pay for Registered Nurses (metro median $117,208, up significantly) and CNAs/Home Health Aides ($52,000, up significantly) tracks this demand."}, {"headline": "Federal contract pullback is a quieter drag on nonmetro activity.", "body": "Government contracts fell 25.4% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, a decline that predates and compounds the labor-supply mismatch now showing up in the unemployment data. Commerce leaders tracking public-sector-adjacent demand should watch whether this contraction persists into year-end."}], "local_conditions": "Hawaii's nonmetropolitan counties posted rising unemployment across the board in September, with Hawaii County at 3.5%, Maui County at 3.1%, and Kauai County spiking to 5.1% after Hurricane Lowell disrupted the island's tourism-dependent economy. Labor force growth of 1.1% year-over-year is running well ahead of employment growth of 0.4%, a pattern consistent with more residents seeking work faster than the nonmetro economy is adding jobs.", "implications": "Rising unemployment paired with labor-force growth signals available workforce capacity returning to these island economies after years of tight conditions, a relevant data point for commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing in construction, healthcare, and accommodations \u2014 sectors that continued adding jobs even as the broader rate climbed. Kauai's hurricane-driven spike illustrates how exposed single-industry island economies remain to acute shocks, a consideration for government economists tracking resilience of the visitor-industry tax base. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate county-level divergence alongside a single statewide read when assessing local business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Kauai's post-hurricane unemployment reading for October will show whether the 5.1% spike was a one-month disruption or the start of a longer tourism-sector drag. A continued elevated rate would point to slower-than-expected recovery in visitor-dependent business activity."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS metro-level employment data for October won't publish until December 2, leaving county-level proxies as the best available read through year-end. Commerce leaders should treat intervening headlines with appropriate caution given the data lag."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "State economists project Hawaii's unemployment could reach 3.0% by year-end with a 2026 annual average near 2.6%, suggesting nonmetro counties \u2014 already above that statewide figure \u2014 may be the first to show whether softening stabilizes or continues."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal civilian employment fell 9.5% statewide even as local government employment grew 1.6%, a divergence worth tracking in nonmetro counties with disproportionate federal payroll exposure, including defense and National Park Service positions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33571.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32812.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35902.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51872.0, "metro_p50": 65468.0, "metro_p75": 68135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31277.0, "metro_p50": 33862.6, "metro_p75": 37123.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 50000.0, "metro_p75": 55944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58894.5, "metro_p50": 74147.0, "metro_p75": 80839.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38872.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33462.0, "metro_p50": 47684.0, "metro_p75": 49215.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 52000.0, "metro_p75": 67843.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39000.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67683.5, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 85280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96307.5, "metro_p50": 117208.0, "metro_p75": 126764.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72143.0, "metro_p50": 121489.0, "metro_p75": 130306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100939.0, "metro_p50": 114738.0, "metro_p75": 122198.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54624.5, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 80170.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79730.0, "metro_p50": 92201.0, "metro_p75": 103066.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50338.0, "metro_p50": 63000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51339.0, "metro_p50": 112500.0, "metro_p75": 116095.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63516.75, "metro_p50": 104892.4, "metro_p75": 138388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 64571.0, "metro_p75": 64954.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55343.5, "metro_p50": 71052.2, "metro_p75": 87017.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 95000.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85366.0, "metro_p50": 91835.4, "metro_p75": 105049.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65923.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 76594.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42058.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43003.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 79053.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 44392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 83510.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78796.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 42855.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 73313.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "County-level unemployment rates for September 2026"}, {"source_name": "The Garden Island", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kauai unemployment rose from 2.5% to 5.1% after Hurricane Lowell"}, {"source_name": "Hawaii DBEDT Quarterly Statistical & Economic Report", "source_url": null, "statement": "Government contracts fell 25.4% year-over-year in H1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro-level BLS employment data for October scheduled for Dec. 2, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Hawaii DLIR", "source_url": null, "statement": "Labor force grew 1.1% vs employment growth of 0.4% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations", "source_url": null, "statement": "State economists project unemployment near 3.0% by year-end"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:23:02.152337+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}