{"schema_version": 1, "id": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 296, "label": "HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:30.459132+00:00", "headline": "Hawaii's rural counties: low unemployment, thinning momentum.", "headline_summary": "Hawaii's statewide jobless rate eased to 2.5% in September, but nonmetro Hawaii County's $1,190 average weekly wage \u2014 lowest in the state \u2014 and a 34% drop in building permits point to a labor market coasting on existing projects rather than new growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hawaii statewide unemployment", "value": "2.5%", "context": "Down from 2.7% in August 2026"}, {"label": "Hawaii County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,190", "context": "Lowest of all Hawaii counties, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Private building permit value", "value": "-34.0%", "context": "First 7 months of 2026 vs. year prior"}, {"label": "Federal government employment", "value": "-8.7% YoY", "context": "Drove overall government sector down 2.4%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a hollowing labor force.", "body": "September's 2.5% jobless rate looks tight, but it sits alongside a federal workforce down 8.7% year-over-year and overall nonfarm job growth of just 0.2% statewide since last July. A rate this low typically signals strength; here it mostly reflects a small, aging rural labor pool rather than robust hiring."}, {"headline": "Construction strength is a trailing signal, not a leading one.", "body": "Construction payrolls grew 3.3% through July even as private building permit values fell 34% in the same period. Current job counts reflect projects already funded and underway; absent new permitting, commerce leaders should expect construction employment to turn by mid-2027."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is the one sector pricing in genuine scarcity.", "body": "Hawaii County health care and social assistance added 300 jobs (+3.7%) in Q1 while advertised pay for Certified Nursing Assistants and Registered Nurses both rose. That divergence from flat retail and manufacturing pay suggests real labor tightness is narrowly concentrated, not metro-wide."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is losing ground to inflation across the islands.", "body": "Statewide weekly wages rose just 1.7% year-over-year while Honolulu-area CPI-U is forecast at 3.8% for 2026, a gap that compresses real purchasing power for nonmetro households with already-lower average wages ($1,190/week in Hawaii County). Consumer spending capacity in these counties is likely weaker than headline employment figures imply."}], "local_conditions": "Hawaii's nonmetro counties, led by Hawaii County, continue to show tight but softening conditions: the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate eased to 2.5% in September from 2.7% in August even as federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year, concentrating remaining momentum in healthcare, construction, and tourism-adjacent services. Hawaii County's average weekly wage of $1,190 remains the lowest among the state's counties, and a 34% drop in private building permit value signals that current construction job counts reflect projects already underway rather than new pipeline.", "implications": "Government contraction and a stalling construction pipeline point to a local economy running on inherited momentum rather than new investment, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion or capital commitments in the islands' rural counties. Healthcare's steady job gains and wage increases (Registered Nurse advertised pay up significantly to $118,604) suggest the one sector still absorbing labor without competitive pressure from elsewhere, while flat-to-declining pay in construction trades and manufacturing hints at softening demand beneath headline job counts. Current conditions suggest monitoring building-permit activity and federal-contract exposure as leading indicators before treating low unemployment as a signal of broad-based strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Leading indicator", "body": "Private building-permit values are down 34% year-to-date even as construction employment holds near 41,200 jobs. Watch whether permit activity stabilizes in Q4 \u2014 a continued decline would likely translate into construction job losses by early-to-mid 2027."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year statewide; nonmetro counties with disproportionate federal employment (national parks, defense-adjacent roles) may feel this contraction more acutely than Honolulu. Track whether federal RIF or hiring-freeze actions extend into Q4 federal fiscal planning."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Hawaii's overall labor force hit its highest level since December 2019, even as the unemployed count rose to a two-year high. Rising participation alongside rising unemployment can mean more workers are actively testing a thin job market \u2014 a signal local economic development groups should track for signs of underemployment."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "GDP growth for Hawaii is projected at 1.3% for 2026, roughly half the 2.5% pace seen in 2025. Commerce leaders evaluating investment timing in nonmetro counties should weigh this deceleration against any county-specific tourism or construction rebound before committing capital."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33555.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30678.0, "metro_p50": 37089.0, "metro_p75": 38792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35563.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51190.0, "metro_p50": 65468.0, "metro_p75": 68063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30692.0, "metro_p50": 33619.0, "metro_p75": 35530.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41088.25, "metro_p50": 49816.0, "metro_p75": 53904.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61950.25, "metro_p50": 74172.0, "metro_p75": 80294.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31894.0, "metro_p50": 33925.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38350.0, "metro_p50": 43516.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33462.0, "metro_p50": 45073.0, "metro_p75": 48734.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38183.0, "metro_p50": 49223.0, "metro_p75": 59160.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38091.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65520.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 78780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95680.0, "metro_p50": 118604.0, "metro_p75": 128118.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87291.0, "metro_p50": 121489.0, "metro_p75": 130306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100900.0, "metro_p50": 110687.4, "metro_p75": 123847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55909.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 76051.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81640.5, "metro_p50": 92066.0, "metro_p75": 103066.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51757.75, "metro_p50": 63000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46759.0, "metro_p50": 105500.0, "metro_p75": 112500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66566.0, "metro_p50": 138388.0, "metro_p75": 138388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 64571.0, "metro_p75": 64576.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49233.25, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 87017.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91250.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 103750.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86573.0, "metro_p50": 95130.6, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 80789.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40794.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 83650.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 44392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81758.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78561.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 43480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 73581.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:22.066225+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/hi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}