Hawaii's rural counties: low unemployment, thinning momentum.
2.5%
Hawaii statewide unemployment
Down from 2.7% in August 2026
$1,190
Hawaii County avg weekly wage
Lowest of all Hawaii counties, Q1 2026
-34.0%
Private building permit value
First 7 months of 2026 vs. year prior
-8.7% YoY
Federal government employment
Drove overall government sector down 2.4%
This Month's Takeaways
01
Low unemployment is masking a hollowing labor force.
September's 2.5% jobless rate looks tight, but it sits alongside a federal workforce down 8.7% year-over-year and overall nonfarm job growth of just 0.2% statewide since last July. A rate this low typically signals strength; here it mostly reflects a small, aging rural labor pool rather than robust hiring.
02
Construction strength is a trailing signal, not a leading one.
Construction payrolls grew 3.3% through July even as private building permit values fell 34% in the same period. Current job counts reflect projects already funded and underway; absent new permitting, commerce leaders should expect construction employment to turn by mid-2027.
03
Healthcare is the one sector pricing in genuine scarcity.
Hawaii County health care and social assistance added 300 jobs (+3.7%) in Q1 while advertised pay for Certified Nursing Assistants and Registered Nurses both rose. That divergence from flat retail and manufacturing pay suggests real labor tightness is narrowly concentrated, not metro-wide.
04
Wage growth is losing ground to inflation across the islands.
Statewide weekly wages rose just 1.7% year-over-year while Honolulu-area CPI-U is forecast at 3.8% for 2026, a gap that compresses real purchasing power for nonmetro households with already-lower average wages ($1,190/week in Hawaii County). Consumer spending capacity in these counties is likely weaker than headline employment figures imply.
Local Economic Conditions
Hawaii's nonmetro counties, led by Hawaii County, continue to show tight but softening conditions: the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate eased to 2.5% in September from 2.7% in August even as federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year, concentrating remaining momentum in healthcare, construction, and tourism-adjacent services. Hawaii County's average weekly wage of $1,190 remains the lowest among the state's counties, and a 34% drop in private building permit value signals that current construction job counts reflect projects already underway rather than new pipeline.
Open Threads in the Data
Government contraction and a stalling construction pipeline point to a local economy running on inherited momentum rather than new investment, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion or capital commitments in the islands' rural counties. Healthcare's steady job gains and wage increases (Registered Nurse advertised pay up significantly to $118,604) suggest the one sector still absorbing labor without competitive pressure from elsewhere, while flat-to-declining pay in construction trades and manufacturing hints at softening demand beneath headline job counts. Current conditions suggest monitoring building-permit activity and federal-contract exposure as leading indicators before treating low unemployment as a signal of broad-based strength.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$39,520 |
↑ Moderate increase |
2,883 |
| Retail Cashier |
$37,089 |
→ Stable |
954 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$42,640 |
→ Stable |
570 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$65,468 |
↑ Significant increase |
462 |
| Delivery Driver |
$33,619 |
↓ Moderate decline |
2,445 |
| Warehouse Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$49,816 |
↓ Moderate decline |
148 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$74,172 |
→ Stable |
270 |
| HVAC Technician |
$78,000 |
↓ Moderate decline |
88 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$33,925 |
→ Stable |
49 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$43,516 |
↑ Moderate increase |
272 |
| Operations Manager |
$138,388 |
↑ Significant increase |
13 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$45,073 |
↑ Significant increase |
164 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$49,223 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,575 |
| Registered Nurse |
$118,604 |
↑ Significant increase |
4,041 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$45,760 |
→ Stable |
571 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$121,489 |
↓ Significant decline |
67 |
| Data Engineer |
$110,687 |
↓ Significant decline |
109 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$70,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
215 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$63,000 |
→ Stable |
44 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$105,500 |
↑ Significant increase |
19 |
| Business Analyst |
$95,131 |
↑ Moderate increase |
35 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$92,066 |
↑ Significant increase |
64 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$64,571 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,986 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$75,000 |
↑ Significant increase |
88 |
Industry Snapshot · HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +20.4% |
↑ +19.9% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +29.1% |
↑ +13.6% |
| Retail Trade |
→ +0.8% |
↓ −10.8% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
→ −1.9% |
↑ +34.6% |
| Information |
↑ +20.2% |
↑ +36.5% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +17.1% |
↓ −71.8% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +26.3% |
↑ +20.0% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +24.0% |
↑ +8.0% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
↓ −5.2% |
↑ +12.0% |
| Government |
↑ +10.0% |
↓ −59.0% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Leading indicator
Private building-permit values are down 34% year-to-date even as construction employment holds near 41,200 jobs. Watch whether permit activity stabilizes in Q4 — a continued decline would likely translate into construction job losses by early-to-mid 2027.
Policy-relevant signal
Federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year statewide; nonmetro counties with disproportionate federal employment (national parks, defense-adjacent roles) may feel this contraction more acutely than Honolulu. Track whether federal RIF or hiring-freeze actions extend into Q4 federal fiscal planning.
Worth watching
Hawaii's overall labor force hit its highest level since December 2019, even as the unemployed count rose to a two-year high. Rising participation alongside rising unemployment can mean more workers are actively testing a thin job market — a signal local economic development groups should track for signs of underemployment.
Emerging pressure point
GDP growth for Hawaii is projected at 1.3% for 2026, roughly half the 2.5% pace seen in 2025. Commerce leaders evaluating investment timing in nonmetro counties should weigh this deceleration against any county-specific tourism or construction rebound before committing capital.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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