{"schema_version": 1, "id": "harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 211, "label": "Harrisonburg, VA MSA", "slug": "harrisonburg-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:50.062514+00:00", "headline": "Harrisonburg holds steady as Virginia's job base shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Harrisonburg's 3.5% unemployment rate and 72,700 jobs in August held firm even as Virginia's statewide labor force shrank by 68,000 since early 2025 and projects a second straight year of net job losses.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 3.6% statewide, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro employment level", "value": "72,700", "context": "Up 200 jobs in August 2026"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force decline", "value": "-68,000", "context": "Since early 2025, per Cooper Center/Virginia Works"}, {"label": "National wage-vs-inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Wage growth now trailing inflation (Sept 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment masks a narrower base of wage gains.", "body": "Harrisonburg's 3.5% jobless rate looks healthy next to Virginia's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, but advertised pay across most tracked metro occupations \u2014 retail, trucking, delivery, administrative, accounting \u2014 is flat or down. Manufacturing assembly pay is the clear exception, up significantly, pointing to concentrated rather than broad-based wage momentum."}, {"headline": "Harrisonburg is bucking Virginia's statewide contraction.", "body": "Virginia's labor force has fallen by roughly 68,000 people since early 2025 and the Commonwealth projects a second consecutive year of net job losses, driven heavily by federal workforce and Northern Virginia softness. Harrisonburg's steady employment growth to 72,700 in August suggests the metro's manufacturing-and-agriculture base is providing a buffer peer metros like Arlington and Fairfax lack."}, {"headline": "HVAC and skilled trades pay is accelerating faster than white-collar roles.", "body": "HVAC technician pay locally is up significantly to $85,000, outpacing even the strong national gain, while administrative and accounting pay in the metro is declining. Consistent with national data showing hands-on trades outperforming office-based occupations, this may reflect tightening capacity in construction-adjacent services locally."}, {"headline": "A single regional layoff event remains the only notable disruption.", "body": "The 80 Acres Farms facility closure in May affected 80 workers, a modest event against a 70,000-person labor force and no comparable WARN activity has surfaced locally since. Absent further disclosures, the metro's layoff profile remains quiet relative to statewide manufacturing-sector WARN activity concentrated elsewhere in Virginia."}], "local_conditions": "Harrisonburg's 3.5% August unemployment rate held well below both the state's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, with metro employment ticking up to 72,700, a sign this manufacturing-, healthcare-, and agriculture-anchored economy continues to outperform Virginia's broader softening. That resilience stands in contrast to statewide trends \u2014 Virginia's labor force has shrunk by 68,000 since early 2025 and the state projects a second straight year of net job losses \u2014 suggesting Harrisonburg's diversified industrial base is insulating it from the Northern Virginia-driven contraction tied to federal workforce reductions.", "implications": "Harrisonburg's tight labor market and below-state unemployment rate signal a local economy still generating demand for workers even as Virginia overall sheds jobs, a divergence that matters for how commerce leaders read the region's investment climate relative to peer metros. Manufacturing production worker pay rising sharply here (up significantly, to $36,400) while most other tracked occupations run flat or down locally suggests uneven momentum beneath a reassuring headline rate \u2014 useful context for anyone assessing the strength of local consumer spending capacity. Local economic development and chamber leaders should consider tracking sector-level pay divergence alongside the unemployment rate before characterizing the metro's momentum as uniformly strong.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Virginia Works releases official September state and metro unemployment figures on October 20 \u2014 the first confirmed read on whether Harrisonburg's August strength held or began converging toward statewide softness."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Virginia's labor force participation sits at a 10-year low of 62.8%, driven by retirements and out-migration tied to federal workforce changes. Watch whether Harrisonburg, with its university and healthcare anchors, shows a different participation trajectory when county-level data updates."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, the first real-wage erosion in two years. If that gap persists, consumer spending capacity across Harrisonburg's retail and service sectors may soften even without local job losses."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Agriculture and transportation/warehousing remain outsized local employment pillars \u2014 agriculture employment runs 82% above the national average regionally. Any shift in trade or tariff policy affecting agricultural exports or input costs would register disproportionately in this metro relative to Virginia overall; monitor policy developments on a factual basis only."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26269.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25306.25, "metro_p50": 27610.4, "metro_p75": 30942.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30236.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 36179.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57733.5, "metro_p50": 73132.8, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29794.0, "metro_p50": 33312.8, "metro_p75": 44939.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36806.0, "metro_p50": 40976.0, "metro_p75": 42656.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55002.0, "metro_p50": 63762.0, "metro_p75": 69680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31522.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37908.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30002.0, "metro_p50": 36638.0, "metro_p75": 40732.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28768.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31922.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33135.0, "metro_p50": 38688.0, "metro_p75": 43129.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29317.0, "metro_p50": 34435.0, "metro_p75": 38485.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60675.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84607.0, "metro_p50": 94037.0, "metro_p75": 105368.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 131038.0, "metro_p50": 163389.8, "metro_p75": 199932.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 140000.0, "metro_p75": 156894.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54679.0, "metro_p50": 58866.0, "metro_p75": 62378.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 87662.0, "metro_p75": 96320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61453.5, "metro_p50": 70122.0, "metro_p75": 79000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 58619.2, "metro_p75": 70614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61592.0, "metro_p50": 84853.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29381.0, "metro_p50": 50692.0, "metro_p75": 58114.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68222.0, "metro_p50": 92358.4, "metro_p75": 95400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71578.75, "metro_p50": 95158.0, "metro_p75": 95186.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60323.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 90687.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62568.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51750.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53841.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60489.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 91957.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:17.665094+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/harrisonburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}