{"schema_version": 1, "id": "harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 231, "label": "Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA MSA", "slug": "harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:44.595589+00:00", "headline": "Harrisburg's low unemployment hides a two-speed local economy.", "headline_summary": "Harrisburg-Carlisle's 3.6% unemployment rate beats the 4.1% national and Pennsylvania averages, but advertised pay for construction laborers, HVAC technicians, and operations managers fell locally even as software engineer and financial analyst pay rose significantly.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 4.1% PA and 4.1% U.S., August 2026"}, {"label": "County unemployment spread", "value": "3.1%\u20133.9%", "context": "Cumberland 3.1% vs Dauphin 3.9%, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "National wage-vs-inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Wage growth trails inflation, lowest since May 2021"}, {"label": "PA WARN activity (24-month)", "value": "174 filings / 27,932 workers", "context": "Across 157 companies, none yet in Harrisburg MSA"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment masks uneven wage momentum beneath the surface.", "body": "Harrisburg's 3.6% unemployment rate outperforms state and national figures, yet advertised pay fell for construction laborers (-moderate), HVAC technicians (-moderate), and operations managers (-significant) locally even as some of these held steady or rose nationally. A tight labor market and softening pay in specific trades can coexist, complicating any single-number narrative about the metro's health."}, {"headline": "Logistics strength is real, but its wage signal is mixed.", "body": "The metro's standing as a fast-growing logistics and manufacturing hub is reflected in strong CDL driver pay ($79,300, above the $78,000 national figure), but warehouse/fulfillment pay slipped moderately even as manufacturing production worker pay held stable and above-national. The sector's job volume looks resilient; its pay trajectory is more selective than headlines suggest."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical wage gains outpace the broader local economy.", "body": "Software engineer ($170,782), financial analyst ($97,570), and account manager ($105,000) pay all rose significantly locally, outpacing national figures in two of three cases. That divergence from softer blue-collar and clerical trends points to an increasingly bifurcated local wage structure worth tracking for what it implies about which parts of the Harrisburg economy are attracting capital investment."}, {"headline": "County-level unemployment data complicates the regional picture.", "body": "Cumberland County's 3.1% unemployment sits meaningfully below Dauphin's 3.9%, even though Dauphin carries the MSA's largest population and employment base. Economic development messaging built solely on the metro-wide average risks obscuring real disparities in labor slack across the three counties."}], "local_conditions": "Harrisburg-Carlisle's 3.6% August unemployment rate held well below both the 4.1% state and national readings, anchored by a logistics and warehousing base that regional analysts rank among the fastest-growing in the country alongside steady government and healthcare employment. Local momentum nonetheless runs counter to a national labor market cooling sharply \u2014 September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs nationally with wage growth slipping to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 leaving the metro's low joblessness paired with softening advertised pay in several blue-collar categories, including warehouse/fulfillment and delivery driver roles.", "implications": "Dauphin, Cumberland, and Perry counties all post unemployment below both state and national rates, a signal of relative economic resilience that commerce leaders can point to when discussing the region's investment climate with site-selection consultants or relocating employers. At the same time, declines in advertised pay for construction laborers, HVAC technicians, and operations managers suggest softening in investment-sensitive trades even as the region's tight headline labor market persists \u2014 a divergence worth flagging for anyone reading unemployment alone as a growth signal. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level wage movement alongside the topline rate before characterizing the metro's trajectory as uniformly expansionary.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August totaling 60,000. Watch whether Harrisburg's logistics and healthcare-driven resilience continues to decouple from that national deceleration or begins to converge toward it over the next two reporting cycles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Pennsylvania has logged 174 WARN filings over 24 months affecting nearly 28,000 workers statewide, with September notices concentrated outside the Harrisburg MSA (Bala Cynwyd, Philadelphia, Newville, Northampton). Monitor whether WARN activity begins appearing within Dauphin, Cumberland, or Perry counties specifically, which would mark a shift from the current pattern of localized stability."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide wage growth of 3.3% year-over-year through Q1 2026 trails the pace needed to outrun inflation, and construction and government employment have contracted since August 2025 both statewide and in several local advertised-pay categories. A continued gap between wage growth and inflation could soften consumer spending in the region even as the unemployment rate stays low."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Pennsylvania labor force participation dropouts jumped from roughly 8,000 to over 15,000 by Q3 2025, a trend the state has not reversed. Whether Harrisburg's constituent counties mirror or buck that statewide participation decline will matter for assessing the durability of the metro's low unemployment rate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24569.5, "metro_p50": 31772.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24857.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30587.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38012.0, "metro_p75": 41294.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59877.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 88500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31233.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 41760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36784.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46492.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58219.25, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 70566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41557.0, "metro_p75": 41860.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38063.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27303.25, "metro_p50": 29354.0, "metro_p75": 32748.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33516.0, "metro_p50": 38299.0, "metro_p75": 43004.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34588.0, "metro_p50": 42171.2, "metro_p75": 48700.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87188.0, "metro_p50": 102012.2, "metro_p75": 112845.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 136257.0, "metro_p50": 170782.0, "metro_p75": 184565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104725.0, "metro_p50": 136317.0, "metro_p75": 148784.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56737.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 73567.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75827.5, "metro_p50": 97570.4, "metro_p75": 113642.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58628.0, "metro_p50": 73127.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48500.0, "metro_p50": 54122.0, "metro_p75": 64301.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75329.0, "metro_p50": 79792.0, "metro_p75": 83804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 54026.0, "metro_p75": 58006.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70324.0, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 131414.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52917.0, "metro_p50": 74000.0, "metro_p75": 81500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74778.0, "metro_p50": 90375.2, "metro_p75": 101959.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57059.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 105124.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42589.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 145507.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 81062.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 64990.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54611.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34552.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66955.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:16.659655+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/harrisburg-carlisle-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}