{"schema_version": 1, "id": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 187, "label": "Green Bay, WI MSA", "slug": "green-bay-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:35:16.687024+00:00", "headline": "Green Bay back-of-house pay pulls ahead as entry-level wages soften.", "headline_summary": "Metro Line Cook pay climbed to $35,990 even as Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay declined, against a Brown County unemployment rate that rose to 3.4% in August from 2.7% in December.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Brown County unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Up from 2.7% in Dec. 2025; vs. 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Wisconsin tipped minimum wage", "value": "$2.33/hr", "context": "Unchanged since 2009; Minnesota base is $11.41"}, {"label": "Metro Line Cook advertised pay", "value": "$35,990", "context": "Up, moderate magnitude; national median $37,421"}, {"label": "Wisconsin labor force participation", "value": "64.9%", "context": "vs. 61.8% national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Back-of-house pay is pulling away from front-of-house.", "body": "Line Cook advertised pay rose to $35,990 (up, moderate) while Crew and Shift Manager both moved down, a split consistent with BLS projections of 12% cook employment growth against roughly flat server growth nationally. Compensation strategy built around uniform annual increases may now misallocate budget relative to where fill difficulty actually sits."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's tipped wage freeze is a structural risk.", "body": "The $2.33 tipped wage and $7.25 minimum have not moved since 2009, even as Minnesota and Illinois operate at more than double that floor. Green Bay operators near state or county lines may see front-of-house attrition tied to take-home pay comparisons that no local wage action can fully offset."}, {"headline": "80/20 rule repeal creates near-term tipped-wage flexibility.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 threshold lets operators pay tipped rates for more side work without triggering full minimum wage, a direct reduction in base labor cost exposure for front-of-house scheduling. Expect this to show up in labor-cost-as-revenue-share metrics before it shows up in advertised pay data."}, {"headline": "Local unemployment drift masks a still-tight frontline market.", "body": "Brown County unemployment rose from 2.7% to 3.4% between December and August, but Wisconsin's 64.9% labor force participation remains well above the 61.8% national rate, meaning available workers are not necessarily flowing into restaurant-eligible roles. Seasonal holiday staffing plans should assume continued difficulty filling entry-level positions despite the headline uptick."}], "local_conditions": "Brown County's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.4% in August 2026 from 2.7% in December 2025, and Wisconsin's near-full-employment labor market, 3.2% statewide against a 4.2% national rate, continues to leave few workers available for frontline hiring. Leisure & Hospitality employment has grown roughly 3% statewide even as overall Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls contracted by 13,700 jobs in September, suggesting restaurant hiring is pulling against a shrinking pool of available candidates in a labor market that otherwise remains resilient.", "implications": "Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped wage, unchanged since 2009, mean Green Bay operators compete against Minnesota ($11.41) and Illinois ($15.00) base rates mainly on tips and total take-home pay, since posted wage floors have not moved \u2014 a gap that widens front-of-house recruiting risk near state lines even without local wage movement. Metro Line Cook pay rising to $35,990 while Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay moved down signals operators are concentrating retention dollars in harder-to-fill back-of-house roles, consistent with the national 75% cook-growth-versus-2%-server-growth projection cited by BLS. Consider reviewing whether entry-level crew and shift manager pay reductions are tracking softening demand or simply lagging a tightening back-of-house labor pool that could reverse quickly heading into holiday seasonal staffing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "80/20 rule repeal takes effect broadly in October; watch whether Wisconsin operators adjust tipped-role scheduling and side-work assignments to capture the lower effective wage cost over the next 30-60 days."}, {"category": "Seasonal pressure point", "body": "Holiday-season staffing ramps against a labor force where Brown County unemployment has drifted up to 3.4% but participation remains high, meaning competition for available seasonal workers should stay intense through December."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide Leisure & Hospitality employment growth of roughly 3% against a 13,700 statewide payroll decline elsewhere may signal restaurant hiring is absorbing displaced workers \u2014 watch whether this shows up in faster fill rates for Green Bay back-of-house roles."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay softening locally while national figures hold stable is a divergence worth tracking; a continued gap could either reflect easing entry-level demand or a lag that reverses once seasonal hiring peaks."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31669.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42085.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38115.5, "metro_p50": 50416.0, "metro_p75": 55284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27203.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30603.0, "metro_p50": 35989.6, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 57046.4, "metro_p75": 61500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26460.0, "metro_p50": 32947.8, "metro_p75": 35651.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28342.0, "metro_p50": 31796.0, "metro_p75": 33956.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Brown County unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in August 2026 from 2.7% in December 2025"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls fell 13,700 in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin minimum wage frozen at $7.25, tipped wage at $2.33, since 2009"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin labor force participation at 64.9% vs. 61.8% national"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:39.056603+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}