{"schema_version": 1, "id": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 187, "label": "Green Bay, WI MSA", "slug": "green-bay-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:30.381485+00:00", "headline": "Green Bay restaurants split pay strategy as labor pool tightens.", "headline_summary": "Crew pay fell significantly in Green Bay even as Restaurant Manager pay climbed to $57,000 against a national decline, with metro unemployment near 2.9% keeping competition for labor fierce.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Green Bay MSA unemployment", "value": "2.9%-3.1%", "context": "vs 4.56% metro long-run average, May 2026"}, {"label": "National food-service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "down from 916,000 in January 2026 (BLS/Indeed)"}, {"label": "Brown County nonfarm payrolls", "value": "180,800", "context": "up from 179,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Manufacturing average weekly wage, Green Bay", "value": "$1,360", "context": "competes directly with entry-level restaurant pay"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew pay is falling locally while Server pay climbs \u2014 a split signal.", "body": "Metro Crew advertised pay dropped significantly even as Servers rose moderately, pointing to operators prioritizing guest-facing retention over back-of-house entry roles. Given Brown County's sub-3% unemployment, this split may understate replacement difficulty for Crew positions if candidates simply migrate to manufacturing's $1,360 weekly wage instead."}, {"headline": "Restaurant Manager pay rising locally cuts against the national trend.", "body": "Metro GM/Restaurant Manager pay moved up moderately to $57,000 while the national median declined moderately to $59,618, narrowing the gap and suggesting Green Bay operators are competing harder to retain scarce management talent locally. This divergence is worth benchmarking against turnover data before assuming it reflects cost-of-living catch-up rather than acute local scarcity."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's frozen wage floor pushes all cost pressure into market wages.", "body": "With the state minimum unchanged since 2009 and tipped wage at $2.33, Green Bay operators get none of the predictable step-increase planning that Florida's $15.00 minimum now offers its operators. Labor cost management here depends entirely on advertised-rate discipline rather than statutory forecasting, raising the stakes of every market pay decision."}, {"headline": "National turnover cooling may not reach Green Bay's tightest segment yet.", "body": "National food-service job openings fell nearly 27% from January to July, easing hiring frenzy broadly, but Brown County's historically low unemployment and manufacturing's wage pull suggest local BOH turnover could remain elevated even as national pressure eases. Retention investment decisions should weigh local labor force dynamics over national averages."}], "local_conditions": "Green Bay MSA unemployment held near 2.90-3.1% through May 2026, well under the metro's 4.56% long-run average, with nonfarm payrolls climbing to roughly 180,800 jobs as manufacturing and healthcare continue absorbing available labor ahead of restaurant competitors. Tight regional supply compounds national restaurant hiring cooldown \u2014 national accommodation and food services job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 by July \u2014 meaning Green Bay operators face a shrinking applicant pool even as industry-wide urgency to hire has eased.", "implications": "Crew pay locally fell significantly even as Server pay rose moderately, suggesting operators are differentiating retention investment by customer-facing exposure rather than raising wages uniformly across the floor. Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum and $2.33 tipped floor offer no cost relief, so labor cost as a share of revenue will keep tracking local market wages rather than statutory wages, particularly as manufacturing's $1,360 average weekly wage continues pulling entry-level BOH candidates away from kitchens. Consider reviewing whether Crew and Shift Manager pay erosion reflects genuine demand softening or a compounding retention risk as manufacturing and healthcare absorb the same labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Crew advertised pay stabilizes or continues declining over the next two reporting cycles \u2014 a sustained drop alongside tight local unemployment would signal employers accepting higher turnover rather than raising entry wages, a strategy that carries cost risk if manufacturing hiring accelerates."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Monitor whether Restaurant Manager/GM pay gains continue outpacing the national trend; if Green Bay operators keep bidding up management pay against a national decline, it may signal a structural local shortage worth addressing with retention bonuses rather than one-time raises."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Brown County's nonfarm payrolls rose from 179,000 to 180,800 between January and May \u2014 track whether fall data shows continued growth or seasonal pullback, since any softening in manufacturing or healthcare hiring could ease the competition for entry-level restaurant labor."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "No Wisconsin minimum wage action is pending, but neighboring state tipped-wage increases (Florida's move to $11.98) add national narrative pressure; watch state legislative sessions for any renewed tipped-wage proposals that could reshape FOH cost structure with little lead time."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31812.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41061.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37738.0, "metro_p50": 50414.2, "metro_p75": 56015.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27560.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30141.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 57000.0, "metro_p75": 61500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26460.0, "metro_p50": 33012.0, "metro_p75": 35600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28443.0, "metro_p50": 32538.8, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:06.650152+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}