{"schema_version": 1, "id": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 187, "label": "Green Bay, WI MSA", "slug": "green-bay-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:40:02.890829+00:00", "headline": "Green Bay's labor edge over the nation is narrowing.", "headline_summary": "Brown County unemployment climbed from 2.7% to 3.4% between December and August even as the metro still beats the 4.1% national rate, while logistics layoffs at Ryder (151 workers) mark one of the region's largest WARN filings this year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Green Bay MSA unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "May 2026, vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Brown County unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "August 2026, up from 2.7% in Dec. 2025"}, {"label": "Largest local WARN filing", "value": "151 workers", "context": "Ryder facility closure, June 2026"}, {"label": "Wisconsin manufacturing employment forecast", "value": "-1.3%", "context": "October 2026 vs. October 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment edge over the nation is narrowing.", "body": "Green Bay's 2.9% May rate gave the metro a wide cushion against the 4.1% national rate, but Brown County's rise to 3.4% by August suggests that gap is closing faster than state figures alone would indicate. Commerce leaders tracking local economic momentum should treat the metro's historical tightness as less durable than headline comparisons suggest."}, {"headline": "Logistics layoffs outpace the metro's small WARN history.", "body": "The 151-worker Ryder closure and 32-worker Green Bay Converting filing are large relative to Wisconsin's typical WARN volume, where the state's lower 25-employee threshold usually captures smaller events. Concentration in logistics and light manufacturing is consistent with the statewide manufacturing contraction forecast for October."}, {"headline": "Public-sector pay lag may pressure service delivery.", "body": "Advertised pay for teachers ($36,400) sits roughly $19,500 below the national median, and Administrative Assistant pay ($39,520) trails the national figure by over $5,000. Persistent gaps in these roles are consistent with the fire department's reported recruit-pipeline thinning and may warrant monitoring as a broader public-sector stability signal."}, {"headline": "Finance and logistics pay gains suggest selective local strength.", "body": "Financial Analyst ($82,175, up significantly) and Warehouse Manager ($80,000, up significantly) advertised pay both outpaced stable-to-moderate national trends, pointing to localized demand pressure even as broader state job growth stalls. This divergence may signal where metro economic activity is concentrating, distinct from broad-based expansion."}], "local_conditions": "Green Bay's unemployment rate sat at 2.9% in May, roughly a point below the 3.2% statewide figure and more than a point below the national 4.1% rate, though Brown County data show softening since, rising to 3.4% by August as the civilian labor force holds near 178,800. Layoff activity remains concentrated in logistics and light manufacturing \u2014 the Ryder facility closure (151 workers) and a Green Bay Converting filing (32 workers) stand out against a Wisconsin backdrop where manufacturing employment is forecast to run 1.3% below year-ago levels by October.", "implications": "Metro wage data diverge sharply by sector: Warehouse Manager pay is up significantly ($80,000) and Financial Analyst pay climbed to $82,175, while Business Analyst advertised pay fell 22% below the prior period and Elementary/Secondary Teacher pay sits at $36,400, well under the $55,908 national figure. That spread signals a local economy where capital-intensive and logistics-adjacent sectors are tightening even as public-sector and administrative pay lags inflation, a dynamic that affects consumer spending power and the fiscal position of local institutions more than any single hiring decision. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh this sector split alongside the single metro-wide wage figure \u2014 current conditions suggest reviewing sector-specific pay trends before drawing conclusions about overall labor market tightness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Brown County's unemployment uptick (2.7% in December to 3.4% in August) continues into fall data releases, which would confirm a cooling trend beyond seasonal noise."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Additional WARN filings in logistics and manufacturing would reinforce the Ryder and Green Bay Converting pattern; track whether displaced workers surface in local job ad activity, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), in adjacent sectors like warehousing."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Public-safety staffing commentary from Green Bay Metro Fire Department points to a thinning recruit pipeline; parallel signals from other municipal departments would suggest a metro-wide public-sector stability concern beyond an isolated case."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "October BLS metro unemployment data, expected in coming weeks, will be the first hard read on whether Green Bay's labor market is tracking the statewide slowdown or holding its historical advantage."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24049.0, "metro_p50": 30162.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25147.0, "metro_p50": 30120.8, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32413.0, "metro_p50": 37833.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 77763.6, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29997.0, "metro_p50": 37587.2, "metro_p75": 42419.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35560.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62397.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34376.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44587.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33233.5, "metro_p50": 39289.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27000.5, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36284.75, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47577.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61017.0, "metro_p50": 69643.6, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87804.0, "metro_p50": 99320.0, "metro_p75": 107610.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111461.5, "metro_p50": 131175.0, "metro_p75": 144991.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104554.0, "metro_p50": 133616.4, "metro_p75": 137345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57337.5, "metro_p50": 68644.0, "metro_p75": 72378.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65735.5, "metro_p50": 82175.0, "metro_p75": 83449.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 64904.0, "metro_p75": 70131.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47787.5, "metro_p50": 53966.0, "metro_p75": 57140.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85176.0, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29640.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64411.0, "metro_p50": 92095.0, "metro_p75": 113580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66387.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70186.5, "metro_p50": 75333.2, "metro_p75": 88686.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37145.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 50559.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51976.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59093.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Green Bay MSA unemployment rate 2.9% in May 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Brown County unemployment 3.4% as of August 2026"}, {"source_name": "WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ryder facility closure affecting 151 workers, June 2026"}, {"source_name": "WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Green Bay Converting layoff of 32 workers, April 2026"}, {"source_name": "WBAY", "source_url": null, "statement": "Green Bay Metro Fire Department recruit pipeline thinning"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Policy Forum / BLS forecast", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin manufacturing employment forecast 1.3% below year-ago"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:38.731053+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}