{"schema_version": 1, "id": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 187, "label": "Green Bay, WI MSA", "slug": "green-bay-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:42.393003+00:00", "headline": "Green Bay outpaces a cooling Wisconsin \u2014 but real wages are not keeping up.", "headline_summary": "Green Bay's 3.1% unemployment rate beats a Wisconsin economy that has shed 8,100 jobs since late 2024, even as statewide inflation near 3.9% threatens to outrun the 4.2% forecast wage gain.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Green Bay MSA unemployment", "value": "3.1%", "context": "May 2026, vs. metro's 4.56% long-term average"}, {"label": "Wisconsin job change since peak", "value": "-8,100 jobs", "context": "Nov 2024 peak to July 2026, while U.S. kept growing"}, {"label": "Wisconsin wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "4.2% vs 3.9% CPI", "context": "Forecast 2026 wage gain barely outpacing core inflation"}, {"label": "Brown County nonfarm payrolls", "value": "180,800 jobs", "context": "Up from 179,000 in January 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Green Bay's labor market is tighter than the state's, not just the nation's.", "body": "A 3.1% metro unemployment rate compares favorably to Wisconsin's job losses since late 2024 and the national cooling trend (29,000 September payroll additions, well below trend). For commerce leaders, this divergence is the month's most quotable fact: Green Bay is outperforming its own state, not just riding a national wave."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and healthcare are carrying the metro, not diversifying it.", "body": "Manufacturing (29,386 jobs) and healthcare (24,451 jobs) together anchor the local wage base at $1,310\u2013$1,360 weekly, while statewide manufacturing employment is declining 0.2% and trade/transportation contracting roughly 1%. Concentration in two sectors means local economic resilience is tied closely to how those industries weather national tariff and demand shifts \u2014 a factor worth monitoring, not advocating on."}, {"headline": "Real wages may be flattening even where job counts look healthy.", "body": "Several metro advertised-pay categories \u2014 customer service, food service, marketing, warehouse/fulfillment \u2014 show declining or softening trends while Wisconsin core inflation runs near 3.9%. That combination is consistent with a local economy where employment volume is strong but purchasing power for a meaningful share of the workforce is not keeping pace."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical pay gains suggest a two-speed local economy.", "body": "Software engineering, data engineering, registered nursing, and accounting roles in the metro show upward advertised-pay momentum even as retail, food service, and administrative categories soften or decline. This split mirrors the national divergence between hands-on/skilled-service growth and white-collar softness, and is worth watching as an indicator of which parts of the local business base are expanding."}], "local_conditions": "Green Bay metro unemployment held at 3.1% in May 2026 \u2014 well below the long-term metro average of 4.56% \u2014 even as Brown County nonfarm payrolls climbed to roughly 180,800 jobs, a sign the local economy is tightening faster than Wisconsin or the nation as a whole. Manufacturing (29,386 jobs, $1,360 average weekly wage) and healthcare (24,451 jobs, $1,310 weekly) remain the metro's two structural pillars, with continued advertised activity from employers including American Foods Group, Procter & Gamble, and HSHS Prevea Health pointing to steady, broad-based labor demand rather than a single-sector spike.", "implications": "Metro-level tightness \u2014 a 3.1% jobless rate against a statewide pattern of flat-to-declining job counts \u2014 suggests Green Bay's economy is better insulated than Wisconsin's overall, which lost roughly 8,100 jobs since late 2024, making the metro a relative bright spot for commerce leaders assessing expansion or investment timing. At the same time, wage-versus-inflation dynamics are unfavorable statewide (3.9% core CPI against a 4.2% forecast wage gain) and several metro advertised-pay categories \u2014 warehouse/fulfillment, customer service, food service, marketing \u2014 are trending down or softening, which may compress local consumer purchasing power even as headline employment looks strong. Current conditions suggest economic development and chamber leaders track wage-versus-CPI trends alongside job counts, since a tight labor market with eroding real pay can mask softening retail and service-sector demand.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Official June\u2013September 2026 BLS data for the Green Bay MSA has not yet posted as of this briefing; expect a data catch-up in coming weeks that will clarify whether May's 3.1% rate held through summer or drifted toward the metro's historical 4.56% average."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's 56 WARN notices in 2026 (3,914 workers affected) run below 2025 levels, but national WARN activity remains elevated among large employers in retail, logistics, and food processing. Watch whether any multi-site regional employers with Green Bay operations appear on forthcoming state filings."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide equity data shows Black unemployment at 7.2% against a 2.3% white rate in Q1 2026, alongside falling overall labor force participation (64.5%, down from 65.4% a year ago). Local economic development groups may want to track whether Brown County's participation rate is following or diverging from this statewide slide."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to its lowest annual pace since May 2021 (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation, reversing two years of real wage gains. If that gap persists into Green Bay's next wage data release, it would mark the first real-wage erosion period for the metro's workforce since 2022."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 30454.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 29331.2, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31812.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56411.0, "metro_p50": 77711.8, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29099.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35748.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46162.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61407.0, "metro_p50": 72432.0, "metro_p75": 76960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39572.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38282.0, "metro_p75": 44895.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27617.5, "metro_p50": 31670.8, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35908.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47837.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33580.75, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61048.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88959.0, "metro_p50": 99320.0, "metro_p75": 108671.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107194.0, "metro_p50": 130018.8, "metro_p75": 144770.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99136.0, "metro_p50": 129001.6, "metro_p75": 136634.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 68565.0, "metro_p75": 71500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64513.0, "metro_p50": 82175.0, "metro_p75": 83169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56735.0, "metro_p50": 62496.4, "metro_p75": 65750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47840.0, "metro_p50": 53550.0, "metro_p75": 54190.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70157.0, "metro_p50": 82249.6, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29472.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 92095.0, "metro_p75": 113331.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41352.0, "metro_p50": 75109.6, "metro_p75": 84528.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67650.0, "metro_p50": 73612.4, "metro_p75": 83211.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 66784.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 53674.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37313.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66214.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60865.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:06.348133+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}