{"schema_version": 1, "id": "green-bay-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 187, "label": "Green Bay, WI MSA", "slug": "green-bay-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:20:20.063332+00:00", "headline": "Wisconsin Outperforms, But Local HR Pay Signals Are Splitting.", "headline_summary": "Wisconsin's unemployment fell to 3.2% in August \u2014 90 basis points below the national rate of 4.1% \u2014 while real wages nationally contracted 0.4% and benefit costs rose 8.8%, creating a bifurcated compensation environment where analytical HR roles are repricing upward and transactional roles are softening.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Wisconsin Unemployment Rate (Aug 2026)", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs. 4.1% U.S. national rate; 0.9 pts below national"}, {"label": "WI Labor Force Participation Rate", "value": "64.7%", "context": "vs. 61.6% U.S. national average (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Employer Health Care Cost Growth (2026)", "value": "+8.8%", "context": "vs. ~3.7% annual avg 2022; 2027 projected +9.5% (Aon)"}, {"label": "Real Private-Sector Wage Growth (Q2 2026)", "value": "-0.4%", "context": "First real wage decline since 2022 (BLS ECI, July 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Benefits Manager demand looks structural, not cyclical.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Benefits Managers has risen sharply to $118,534 \u2014 nearly at parity with the $120,000 national median \u2014 while employer health care costs climbed 8.8% in 2026 and Aon projects a further 9.5% increase in 2027. Organizations are buying the expertise to manage plan design, cost-shifting, and financial wellbeing communications; benchmarking this role against last year's range understates current market pressure."}, {"headline": "Transactional HR roles are losing ground \u2014 locally and in real terms.", "body": "Advertised pay for HR Coordinators, Recruiters, and Payroll Specialists has moved down in this metro while national rates for all three are trending upward \u2014 a widening gap that may signal either local supply excess or a structural reset in how employers are tiering these functions. Current conditions suggest reviewing whether compensation for these roles reflects market value or simply reflects that candidates have accepted below-market offers in a high-participation labor environment."}, {"headline": "Real wages are contracting nationally \u2014 a retention risk hiding in plain sight.", "body": "Private-sector inflation-adjusted wages fell 0.4% year-over-year through Q2 2026, the first real decline since 2022, as nominal wage growth of 3.1% was outpaced by resurging inflation. Employees in fixed salary bands who received no 2026 merit increase are effectively earning less; in a metro where unemployment is 3.2% and labor force participation is high, voluntary attrition among longer-tenured staff may be worth monitoring."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's sector crossover reshapes the talent competition for HR.", "body": "Healthcare employment has surpassed manufacturing statewide for the first time, with the sector growing from 321,000 to 463,000 workers since 2001 \u2014 and Bellin Health is the Green Bay metro's largest single employer. As healthcare employers deepen HR infrastructure investment, the local demand for HR Business Partners and HRIS Analysts with healthcare domain experience may intensify, consistent with the moderate-to-significant upward movement observed in metro advertised pay for both roles."}], "local_conditions": "Wisconsin's labor market tightened further in August, with unemployment falling to 3.2% \u2014 90 basis points below the national rate \u2014 and the state adding 11,800 nonfarm jobs in a single month, a movement the state's chief economist characterized as statistically significant against a 'relatively slow national economy.' Structurally, the Green Bay\u2013De Pere metro is navigating a dual-sector shift: healthcare employment has now surpassed manufacturing statewide for the first time, driven by demographic aging and sustained demand from major regional anchors including Bellin Health and Humana, while construction job growth (+10,500 year-over-year statewide) continues to tighten already-constrained labor supply.", "implications": "A labor market this tight \u2014 with participation rates at 64.7%, well above the 61.6% national average \u2014 compresses hiring timelines and raises the retention cost of vacancies, particularly for roles where metro advertised pay already trails national rates significantly. Benefits design is simultaneously becoming a front-line competitive issue: employer health care costs rose 8.8% in 2026 and are projected to rise another 9.5% in 2027, making plan architecture and cost-sharing strategy as consequential to talent attraction as base pay. Organizations should evaluate whether current total rewards positioning \u2014 especially for mid-tier administrative and transactional HR roles where local advertised rates are declining \u2014 is being tested by a candidate market that has quietly shifted its comparison set to national postings.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Aon projects employer health care costs will rise another 9.5% in 2027 before mitigation \u2014 and 2026 already marked the fourth consecutive year of elevated benefit cost growth. Plan design decisions made this fall will directly affect 2027 compensation budgets; organizations entering renewal season without a clear cost-management strategy face compounding pressure on total rewards spend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Wisconsin WARN filings through late August 2026 remain below prior-year levels, with layoff activity concentrated in Milwaukee, Madison, and Appleton \u2014 not the Green Bay\u2013De Pere corridor. If that pattern holds, the local candidate pool is unlikely to be meaningfully refreshed by displaced workers, sustaining sourcing difficulty for specialized HR and finance roles."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National economists are characterizing the labor market as 'low hiring, low firing' \u2014 a condition that suppresses both voluntary turnover and new headcount approvals simultaneously. For HR leaders in this metro, that dynamic may manifest as organizational pressure to hold open requisitions longer, which in a 3.2% unemployment market accelerates counter-offer activity among finalists."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Compensation Analysts is up significantly locally but remains $34,766 below the national median \u2014 the widest absolute gap in the HR function observed in this data set. As pay transparency regulations and total rewards scrutiny intensify nationally, watch whether demand for this role accelerates in a way that pushes local rates toward national levels faster than the broader HR function."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65786.25, "metro_p50": 66288.8, "metro_p75": 78534.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 101054.6, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56724.75, "metro_p50": 71082.4, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 83180.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81350.0, "metro_p50": 118534.0, "metro_p75": 133021.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 120000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75144.25, "metro_p50": 77180.4, "metro_p75": 78304.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 95665.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40406.0, "metro_p50": 42764.6, "metro_p75": 49587.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50095.2, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42874.0, "metro_p50": 52763.8, "metro_p75": 56600.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 67643.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42177.0, "metro_p50": 55120.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 58266.2, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "green-bay-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-08.html", "pdf": "green-bay-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:21:45.855037+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/green-bay-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-08.pdf"}