Labor Market Pulse

Green Bay, WI Metro Edition

Focus: HR

Wisconsin Outperforms, But Local HR Pay Signals Are Splitting.

3.2%

Wisconsin Unemployment Rate (Aug 2026)

vs. 4.1% U.S. national rate; 0.9 pts below national

64.7%

WI Labor Force Participation Rate

vs. 61.6% U.S. national average (Aug 2026)

+8.8%

Employer Health Care Cost Growth (2026)

vs. ~3.7% annual avg 2022; 2027 projected +9.5% (Aon)

-0.4%

Real Private-Sector Wage Growth (Q2 2026)

First real wage decline since 2022 (BLS ECI, July 2026)

This Month's Takeaways

01

Benefits Manager demand looks structural, not cyclical.

Metro advertised pay for Benefits Managers has risen sharply to $118,534 — nearly at parity with the $120,000 national median — while employer health care costs climbed 8.8% in 2026 and Aon projects a further 9.5% increase in 2027. Organizations are buying the expertise to manage plan design, cost-shifting, and financial wellbeing communications; benchmarking this role against last year's range understates current market pressure.

02

Transactional HR roles are losing ground — locally and in real terms.

Advertised pay for HR Coordinators, Recruiters, and Payroll Specialists has moved down in this metro while national rates for all three are trending upward — a widening gap that may signal either local supply excess or a structural reset in how employers are tiering these functions. Current conditions suggest reviewing whether compensation for these roles reflects market value or simply reflects that candidates have accepted below-market offers in a high-participation labor environment.

03

Real wages are contracting nationally — a retention risk hiding in plain sight.

Private-sector inflation-adjusted wages fell 0.4% year-over-year through Q2 2026, the first real decline since 2022, as nominal wage growth of 3.1% was outpaced by resurging inflation. Employees in fixed salary bands who received no 2026 merit increase are effectively earning less; in a metro where unemployment is 3.2% and labor force participation is high, voluntary attrition among longer-tenured staff may be worth monitoring.

04

Wisconsin's sector crossover reshapes the talent competition for HR.

Healthcare employment has surpassed manufacturing statewide for the first time, with the sector growing from 321,000 to 463,000 workers since 2001 — and Bellin Health is the Green Bay metro's largest single employer. As healthcare employers deepen HR infrastructure investment, the local demand for HR Business Partners and HRIS Analysts with healthcare domain experience may intensify, consistent with the moderate-to-significant upward movement observed in metro advertised pay for both roles.

Local Labor Conditions

Wisconsin's labor market tightened further in August, with unemployment falling to 3.2% — 90 basis points below the national rate — and the state adding 11,800 nonfarm jobs in a single month, a movement the state's chief economist characterized as statistically significant against a 'relatively slow national economy.' Structurally, the Green Bay–De Pere metro is navigating a dual-sector shift: healthcare employment has now surpassed manufacturing statewide for the first time, driven by demographic aging and sustained demand from major regional anchors including Bellin Health and Humana, while construction job growth (+10,500 year-over-year statewide) continues to tighten already-constrained labor supply.

Leadership & Talent Implications

A labor market this tight — with participation rates at 64.7%, well above the 61.6% national average — compresses hiring timelines and raises the retention cost of vacancies, particularly for roles where metro advertised pay already trails national rates significantly. Benefits design is simultaneously becoming a front-line competitive issue: employer health care costs rose 8.8% in 2026 and are projected to rise another 9.5% in 2027, making plan architecture and cost-sharing strategy as consequential to talent attraction as base pay. Organizations should evaluate whether current total rewards positioning — especially for mid-tier administrative and transactional HR roles where local advertised rates are declining — is being tested by a candidate market that has quietly shifted its comparison set to national postings.

Advertised Pay Indicators

Role	P25	Median	P75	Local Trend	National	Nat. Trend
Compensation Analyst	$65,786	$66,289	$78,534	↑ Significant increase	$101,055	→ Stable
HR Business Partner	$56,725	$71,082	$77,500	↑ Moderate increase	$83,180	↑ Significant increase
Benefits Manager	$81,350	$118,534	$133,021	↑ Significant increase	$120,000	↑ Significant increase
HRIS Analyst	$75,144	$77,180	$78,304	↑ Moderate increase	$95,665	↑ Moderate increase
HR Coordinator	$40,406	$42,765	$49,587	↓ Significant decline	$50,095	↑ Significant increase
Recruiter	$42,874	$52,764	$56,600	↓ Moderate decline	$67,643	↑ Moderate increase
Payroll Specialist	$42,177	$55,120	$57,500	↓ Moderate decline	$58,266	↑ Moderate increase

Some roles reflect state-level data where local metro sample size was insufficient.

Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days

Emerging pressure point

Aon projects employer health care costs will rise another 9.5% in 2027 before mitigation — and 2026 already marked the fourth consecutive year of elevated benefit cost growth. Plan design decisions made this fall will directly affect 2027 compensation budgets; organizations entering renewal season without a clear cost-management strategy face compounding pressure on total rewards spend.

Worth watching

Wisconsin WARN filings through late August 2026 remain below prior-year levels, with layoff activity concentrated in Milwaukee, Madison, and Appleton — not the Green Bay–De Pere corridor. If that pattern holds, the local candidate pool is unlikely to be meaningfully refreshed by displaced workers, sustaining sourcing difficulty for specialized HR and finance roles.

Potential inflection point

National economists are characterizing the labor market as 'low hiring, low firing' — a condition that suppresses both voluntary turnover and new headcount approvals simultaneously. For HR leaders in this metro, that dynamic may manifest as organizational pressure to hold open requisitions longer, which in a 3.2% unemployment market accelerates counter-offer activity among finalists.

Early indicator

Metro advertised pay for Compensation Analysts is up significantly locally but remains $34,766 below the national median — the widest absolute gap in the HR function observed in this data set. As pay transparency regulations and total rewards scrutiny intensify nationally, watch whether demand for this role accelerates in a way that pushes local rates toward national levels faster than the broader HR function.

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