{"schema_version": 1, "id": "greeley-co-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 222, "label": "Greeley, CO MSA", "slug": "greeley-co-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:34:21.642458+00:00", "headline": "Greeley's jobless rate rises even as hiring demand accelerates.", "headline_summary": "Weld County unemployment climbed to 5.0% against Colorado's 4.1%, while Greeley posted 15.7% quarterly vacancy growth, pointing to a labor mismatch as the primary driver.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Weld County unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% statewide, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Greeley vacancy growth", "value": "15.7%", "context": "Q1 2026, 2nd-highest in Colorado"}, {"label": "Colorado labor force participation", "value": "Record low", "context": "Lowest since 1976 records began"}, {"label": "Restaurant turnover, national", "value": "~80%", "context": "vs ~72% pre-pandemic"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Greeley's jobless rate and hiring demand are rising together.", "body": "A 5.0% unadjusted unemployment rate alongside 15.7% vacancy growth suggests the available labor pool is mismatched with open shift patterns and skill requirements. Staffing plans built on headline unemployment alone may understate how hard back-of-house roles are to fill."}, {"headline": "Restaurant Manager pay is outpacing the metro's own wage trend.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at $60,795 locally against $59,724 nationally and is trending up, even as broader Weld County wage growth has moderated. This points to employers competing specifically for management bench strength while holding pay flat elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Crew pay softening locally diverges from a stable national picture.", "body": "Crew advertised pay in Greeley is down moderately while the national Crew figure holds stable, a gap worth watching given the county's 5.0% unemployment rate. Softer entry-level pay alongside a looser labor market may reflect easing competition for the lowest-skill shifts even as skilled roles tighten."}, {"headline": "Colorado's tip-credit localization creates an unused cost lever here.", "body": "Edgewater's move to raise its tip credit to $4.67 while holding tipped minimum wage at $13.50 demonstrates how HB 25-1208 can offset labor cost growth. No Weld County jurisdiction has adopted a similar structure yet, leaving a compensation strategy option on the table for operators facing margin pressure."}], "local_conditions": "Weld County's unadjusted unemployment rate climbed to 5.0% in September, running well above the statewide 4.1% figure and signaling a looser labor pool than headline Colorado numbers suggest, even as Greeley led regional job-vacancy growth at 15.7% in Q1 2026, trailing only Colorado Springs. Statewide labor force participation fell to its lowest level since 1976, narrowing the applicant pipeline just as Colorado's House Bill 25-1208 hands local jurisdictions new authority to set tip-credit policy independent of the state minimum.", "implications": "Elevated county unemployment alongside strong vacancy growth points to a mismatch \u2014 candidates may be available locally, but the openings and shifts operators need filled call for different roles or availability, which keeps turnover-driven labor cost pressure elevated even when the jobless rate looks soft. House Bill 25-1208 gives Greeley-area operators a lever Denver-metro peers used in Edgewater to hold tipped wages down while raising the tip credit, a tool worth evaluating ahead of any local minimum wage action. Consider reviewing whether local tip-credit flexibility under HB 25-1208 could offset rising base wage exposure before the next minimum wage adjustment cycle.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Weld County's unadjusted unemployment rate continues diverging from the statewide 4.1% figure in the November 20 CDLE release; a widening gap would reinforce that local applicant mismatch is driving fill-time pressure, with scarcity as a secondary factor."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "No Weld County municipality has exercised HB 25-1208 authority to adjust local tip credits yet. Any move by Greeley or neighboring jurisdictions to follow Edgewater's model would directly affect tipped-wage cost planning for FOH-heavy operations."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule reduces side-work wage obligations nationally; watch whether Colorado's state wage-and-hour enforcement maintains a stricter standard, which would blunt the cost relief for local operators relying on tipped staff for prep and cleaning duties."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Colorado's labor force participation sits at a record low and Weld County vacancy growth remains elevated; track whether Greeley's registered-apprenticeship and hiring-event programs (28 events, 1,852 job seekers in 2025) show measurable placement gains into back-of-house roles this winter."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35000.0, "metro_p50": 42114.0, "metro_p75": 44288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41889.5, "metro_p50": 54779.0, "metro_p75": 59469.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29867.0, "metro_p50": 35162.0, "metro_p75": 36504.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51735.0, "metro_p50": 60795.0, "metro_p75": 73887.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25318.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36664.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32508.5, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "BizWest / Colorado Department of Labor and Employment", "source_url": null, "statement": "Weld County unadjusted unemployment rate reached 5.0% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Colorado Chamber of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Greeley led regional vacancy growth at 15.7% in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Colorado General Assembly", "source_url": null, "statement": "HB 25-1208 allows local governments to set tip credits independent of state minimum"}, {"source_name": "Colorado Restaurant Association / local reporting", "source_url": null, "statement": "Edgewater raised tip credit to $4.67, holding tipped minimum at $13.50"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover reached approximately 80% annually, up from ~72% pre-pandemic"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "greeley-co-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "greeley-co-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:36.928431+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/greeley-co-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/greeley-co-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}