{"schema_version": 1, "id": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 185, "label": "Great Falls, MT MSA", "slug": "great-falls-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:33:30.267684+00:00", "headline": "Great Falls servers see pay cuts as tourism softens, cooks don't.", "headline_summary": "Great Falls Server pay fell significantly to $30,025 against a stable $35,024 national median, while Shift Manager pay climbed to $37,960 as Montana's visitor volume declined in 44% of surveyed restaurants.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Great Falls MSA unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs 4.2% national rate, June 2026"}, {"label": "Montana food service payroll change", "value": "-1,300 jobs", "context": "September 2026, concentrated in Accommodation/Food Service"}, {"label": "MT restaurants reporting lower visitor volume", "value": "44%", "context": "vs 31% reporting increases, 2025"}, {"label": "MT minimum/tipped wage floor", "value": "$10.85 \u2192 $11.20", "context": "Jan 1, 2027 increase, no tip credit allowed"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is falling locally while the national market holds flat.", "body": "Great Falls advertised Server pay dropped significantly against a stable national median of $35,024, a wider local-national gap that is consistent with Montana's 44% visitor-volume decline reducing FOH scheduling needs. Operators benchmarking against national server comp risk overpaying for a locally softer booking environment."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay is climbing against a stable national trend.", "body": "Local Shift Manager pay rose moderately to $37,960, well above the $33,024 national median, pointing to employers backfilling supervisory coverage as full-time management hires grow costlier or harder to retain. This gap may reflect a local strategy of promoting from the hourly ranks ahead of recruiting salaried managers."}, {"headline": "Restaurant Manager pay is cooling even as the role stays hard to fill nationally.", "body": "Great Falls Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell moderately to $60,343, a reversal from national stability at $59,724, which may suggest local operators are managing margin pressure from softer tourism demand by holding the line on management compensation instead of bidding aggressively for talent."}, {"headline": "Montana's no-tip-credit rule insulates FOH wages from the federal 80/20 rollback.", "body": "DOL's October elimination of the 80/20 tipped-wage threshold changes side-work economics in states using the $2.13 federal tipped minimum, but Montana's $10.85 base floor means Great Falls operators see none of that relief \u2014 intensifying the gap between FOH labor cost structures here and in states like Texas or Louisiana."}], "local_conditions": "Great Falls MSA unemployment sat at 3.4% in June, well below the national 4.2%, even as Montana shed 1,300 payroll jobs statewide in September concentrated in Accommodation and Food Service. Tight overall labor supply collides with a statewide tourism pullback \u2014 44% of Montana restaurants reported lower 2025 visitor volume \u2014 producing a market where operators compete for scarce workers despite softer customer demand.", "implications": "Scarce labor supply paired with weaker visitor traffic forces a harder trade-off between staffing to protect service levels and controlling labor cost as a share of revenue, particularly as Montana's no-tip-credit structure keeps front-of-house base pay fixed at $10.85 regardless of demand softness. Advertised Server pay in Great Falls has moved down significantly even as the back-of-house market tightens nationally, suggesting operators are testing whether reduced customer volume allows FOH compensation to ease while BOH roles require continued investment. Consider reviewing shift-level labor allocation to confirm cuts are falling on lower-demand FOH shifts, leaving kitchen staffing intact where replacement risk is highest.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy deadline", "body": "Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, pushing up the tipped-wage floor directly and adding roughly 3.2% to the FOH labor cost baseline. Operators modeling Q1 2027 labor cost as a share of revenue should build this increase into budgets now, ahead of year-end."}, {"category": "Seasonal signal", "body": "Accommodation and Food Service payroll losses in September statewide may extend into winter given the 44% visitor-decline trend; watch whether Great Falls follows the statewide pattern or holds steadier given its diversified base of government and healthcare employment."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Advertised Catering Manager pay in Great Falls is holding at $55,920 while the national median has fallen moderately to $50,076, widening the gap. Confirm whether this reflects local scarcity in event/catering staffing or a lag in local job ads \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 adjusting to demand."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Cooks are projected to grow 12% nationally through 2035 versus 2% for servers, and Great Falls Line Cook pay has stayed flat at $33,509 despite that structural demand. A widening BOH recruiting difficulty without a matching pay response may show up as longer time-to-fill in coming months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35707.25, "metro_p50": 42636.4, "metro_p75": 51250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41211.0, "metro_p50": 55920.4, "metro_p75": 56603.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27001.0, "metro_p50": 29735.4, "metro_p75": 32277.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29898.5, "metro_p50": 33509.2, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50074.0, "metro_p50": 60343.0, "metro_p75": 72290.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30025.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30222.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Great Falls MSA unemployment was 3.4% in June 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana payroll jobs fell 1,300 in September, concentrated in food service"}, {"source_name": "Montana Lodging and Tourism Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "44% of Montana restaurants reported lower 2025 visitor volume"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cooks projected to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:34.468124+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}