{"schema_version": 1, "id": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 185, "label": "Great Falls, MT MSA", "slug": "great-falls-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:21.387504+00:00", "headline": "Great Falls pay structure splits: management flattens, servers lose ground.", "headline_summary": "Server advertised pay in Great Falls fell significantly to $29,745 even as Montana's no-tip-credit wage floor climbs, while Shift Manager pay rose to $36,816 against a national median of just $32,731.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cascade County unemployment", "value": "3.0%", "context": "July 2026, up from 2.9% in May"}, {"label": "Montana minimum wage", "value": "$10.85/hr", "context": "No tip credit; next CPI step Sept 30"}, {"label": "National food-service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Montana restaurant sector avg wage", "value": "$29,881/yr", "context": "vs $108,351 for professional services"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is falling while the wage floor rises \u2014 a contradiction worth tracing.", "body": "Metro Server advertised pay dropped significantly to $29,745 even as Montana's no-tip-credit minimum wage pushes base pay upward every year. This gap likely reflects declining posted base rates offset by tip income assumptions, but operators should confirm total compensation, not just advertised base, before benchmarking against peer markets."}, {"headline": "Management layer is flattening, not just getting cheaper.", "body": "GM/Restaurant Manager pay fell significantly (metro median $60,059) while Shift Manager pay rose moderately ($36,816, well above the $32,731 national figure). Reads as a structural shift toward leaner management layers rather than simple cost-cutting \u2014 worth testing against actual span-of-control and turnover data before locking next year's org chart."}, {"headline": "National turnover relief hasn't necessarily reached Great Falls yet.", "body": "National accommodation/food-service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, easing competition for workers in many metros, but Cascade County's sub-3% unemployment and thin candidate pool mean local operators may not feel the same relief. Retention investment likely still outperforms aggressive hiring spend here."}, {"headline": "Line Cook pay lags the national rate \u2014 a BOH recruiting flag.", "body": "Metro Line Cook median ($33,541) sits meaningfully below the national figure ($36,826), even as Montana's food-prep and serving occupations are projected to generate the most job openings statewide due to high turnover. Persistent gap suggests BOH roles may be losing ground in a tight labor market where healthcare and construction wages are pulling candidates away from hospitality."}], "local_conditions": "Cascade County's unemployment rate sits at 3.0% as of July 2026, consistent with Montana's twelfth straight month under 3% statewide, leaving restaurant operators competing for workers in an already-thin labor pool while Malmstrom Air Force Base and healthcare employment absorb much of the local workforce growth. Montana's no-tip-credit minimum wage structure \u2014 $10.85/hour paid in full to tipped staff, with the next CPI-based adjustment due September 30 \u2014 keeps front-of-house base labor costs structurally higher than tip-credit states, compounding the seasonal pullback as student workers return to school.", "implications": "Server advertised pay in the metro is down significantly year over year to a median of $29,745 even as Montana's wage floor rises annually and statewide food-service job openings tighten, suggesting operators are compressing FOH compensation structures or shifting more pay into tips and service charges rather than base rates \u2014 a pattern that can mask true total labor cost if not tracked carefully. Shift Manager pay climbing (median $36,816, up moderately) against falling GM/Restaurant Manager pay (median $60,059, down significantly) points to flatter management hierarchies as operators push supervisory responsibility downward to control fixed overhead. Consider reviewing whether management compensation bands still reflect actual span-of-control responsibilities before the next hiring cycle, rather than defaulting to prior-year structures.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Montana's CPI-based minimum wage adjustment lands September 30, pushing the $10.85 floor higher for 2027 planning; no-tip-credit rules mean this flows directly into FOH base pay, not just BOH, so model labor-cost-as-revenue-share scenarios before year-end budgeting."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "October 20 brings the next BLS release with Great Falls MSA and Montana September data \u2014 the first chance to confirm whether Cascade County's unemployment uptick from 2.9% (May) to 3.0% (July) is a trend or noise, with direct bearing on fall/winter staffing confidence."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National restaurant job growth decelerated sharply in September (10,800 added vs. 33,800 in August), and job openings in the sector have fallen by roughly a third since January \u2014 watch whether Great Falls postings follow this national cooling or stay elevated given the metro's persistently tight labor supply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Server and GM/Manager advertised pay are both down significantly locally while Shift Manager and Assistant Manager pay rise \u2014 if this divergence continues through Q4, it may signal operators restructuring compensation architecture ahead of the next minimum wage step rather than simply reacting to demand."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35719.0, "metro_p50": 42658.0, "metro_p75": 51250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43663.0, "metro_p50": 53123.6, "metro_p75": 56338.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27001.0, "metro_p50": 29837.0, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 33541.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50074.0, "metro_p50": 60059.0, "metro_p75": 63883.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25230.0, "metro_p50": 29744.6, "metro_p75": 37481.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28672.0, "metro_p50": 36816.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:03.367600+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}